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  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
  VA - Trafalgar - Northam +1
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Author Topic: VA - Trafalgar - Northam +1  (Read 2939 times)
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« on: November 04, 2017, 02:50:59 pm »

49-48-1

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Trafalgar_VA_Gov_11-4-17.pdf
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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2017, 02:51:47 pm »
« Edited: November 04, 2017, 02:58:23 pm by MT Treasurer »

That's it, folks. The gold standard has spoken.

Seriously though, Northam +1.8 (49.34% to 47.55%) is very close to my prediction.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2017, 02:52:20 pm »

That's it, folks. The gold standard has spoken.

Well, no need for me to vote on Tuesday.
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Castro
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2017, 02:53:00 pm »

That's it, folks. The gold standard has spoken.

Literally I was about to post this same comment word for word and now I’m disgruntled.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2017, 02:53:21 pm »

That's where I always* thought this was going!

*OK, there was a 2 week period in Sept when I was entertaining an Obama 2008 margin for Northam, but that opportunity has passed.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2017, 02:58:49 pm »

And that's the ballgame folks!!!
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2017, 03:05:01 pm »

The gods have spoken, it's over.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2017, 03:11:21 pm »

Thats way to close for comfort, but I doubt Trafalgar would put out a poll that could jeopardize their 100% accuracy streak.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2017, 03:19:41 pm »

Thats way to close for comfort, but I doubt Trafalgar would put out a poll that could jeopardize their 100% accuracy streak.

They don't have a 100% accuracy streak, because of NV '16.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2017, 03:22:32 pm »

This is a good sign, right? They have never been more liberal than the final result, right?
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Arch
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2017, 03:26:39 pm »

This is a good sign, right? They have never been more liberal than the final result, right?

Correct
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swf541
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2017, 03:27:04 pm »

This is a good sign, right? They have never been more liberal than the final result, right?

I believe so, still wouldnt read much into any of these.  Im skeptical there is so little undecided/ hyra
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swf541
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2017, 03:42:08 pm »

Rounding in this poll is weird 49.3-47.5 for Northam, seems its closer to +2 Northam than +1
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heatcharger
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2017, 03:44:40 pm »
« Edited: November 04, 2017, 03:46:28 pm by heatcharger 🌹‏ »

Rounding in this poll is weird 49.3-47.5 for Northam, seems its closer to +2 Northam than +1

The hacks at (R)CP don’t care. They also won’t be adding that Gravis poll or fix their entry of Kellyanne Conway’s poll. They’ll also throw out the Quinnipiac poll even if it was done during the same period as the WaPo poll.
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reagente
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2017, 03:48:04 pm »

This is a good sign, right? They have never been more liberal than the final result, right?

Correct

Incorrect, they understated Handel's victory against Ossoff.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2017, 03:55:48 pm »

This is a good sign, right? They have never been more liberal than the final result, right?

Correct

Incorrect, they understated Handel's victory against Ossoff.
Didn't they say 3 and got 3?
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swf541
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2017, 03:58:00 pm »

This is a good sign, right? They have never been more liberal than the final result, right?

Correct

Incorrect, they understated Handel's victory against Ossoff.
Didn't they say 3 and got 3?

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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2017, 03:59:02 pm »
« Edited: November 04, 2017, 04:05:26 pm by Not_Madigan »

This is a good sign, right? They have never been more liberal than the final result, right?

Correct

Incorrect, they understated Handel's victory against Ossoff.
Didn't they say 3 and got 3?


They said 2 and got 3

Actual Poll here:  https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitSUE2X2ItLWhoYVU/view
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swf541
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2017, 04:04:18 pm »

This is a good sign, right? They have never been more liberal than the final result, right?

Correct

Incorrect, they understated Handel's victory against Ossoff.
Didn't they say 3 and got 3?


They said 2 and got 3


thank you for clarifying
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Keep cool-idge
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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2017, 04:09:08 pm »

They said trump would lose Wisconsin as well so not a perfect pollster but still maybe the best pollster.
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Arch
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« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2017, 04:12:21 pm »

This is a good sign, right? They have never been more liberal than the final result, right?

Correct

Incorrect, they understated Handel's victory against Ossoff.
Didn't they say 3 and got 3?


They said 2 and got 3

Actual Poll here:  https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitSUE2X2ItLWhoYVU/view

That's well within the MoE.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2017, 04:19:02 pm »

Awww, my hopes have been crushed since the gold standard has spoken.
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2017, 04:20:05 pm »

This is a good sign, right? They have never been more liberal than the final result, right?

Correct

Incorrect, they understated Handel's victory against Ossoff.
Didn't they say 3 and got 3?


They said 2 and got 3

Actual Poll here:  https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitSUE2X2ItLWhoYVU/view

That's well within the MoE.

And so is a Gillespie win in this poll.
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reagente
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« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2017, 04:26:22 pm »

This is a good sign, right? They have never been more liberal than the final result, right?

Correct

Incorrect, they understated Handel's victory against Ossoff.
Didn't they say 3 and got 3?


They had Handel winning by just a bit over 2, and she won by just a bit under 4.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2017, 08:45:05 pm »

Am I the only one who is marveling at 18-25 year olds?

If I'm reading it correctly, they make up only 4.28% of expected voters but they prefer Gillespie
by 65-23.
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