Siena/NYT: Northam +3 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:39:25 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2023 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Siena/NYT: Northam +3 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Siena/NYT: Northam +3  (Read 2491 times)
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
« on: November 05, 2017, 01:55:40 PM »

This was probably the Republicans' last chance to win anything statewide in VA. Barring a Larry Hogan vs. Anthony Brown situation, Ds should have a lock on the state and things will only get worse for the VA GOP from now on.

To me it looks more like VA is completely inelastic with a built in Dem edge since 2010.  3-6% Dem edge in presidential years, no matter what, and a 1-3% Dem edge in off-years and midterms. 

However, if Gillespie does win on Tuesday, as he has about a 40% chance of doing, I think we have to give Trump VA if he wins the PV in 2020.  So I wouldn't say this is the last chance, but 2020 likely will be.

I now think Fairfax and Herring will both outrun Northam and that Northam will trail the legislative generic ballot.  So a Gillespie + 0.5% win with all other statewide Dems winning and a bunch of Dem HoD gains is a distinct possibility.  I don't know how the heck I would interpret that in terms of 2018/20.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2017, 02:59:10 PM »

This was probably the Republicans' last chance to win anything statewide in VA. Barring a Larry Hogan vs. Anthony Brown situation, Ds should have a lock on the state and things will only get worse for the VA GOP from now on.

To me it looks more like VA is completely inelastic with a built in Dem edge since 2010.  3-6% Dem edge in presidential years, no matter what, and a 1-3% Dem edge in off-years and midterms. 

However, if Gillespie does win on Tuesday, as he has about a 40% chance of doing, I think we have to give Trump VA if he wins the PV in 2020.  So I wouldn't say this is the last chance, but 2020 likely will be.

I now think Fairfax and Herring will both outrun Northam and that Northam will trail the legislative generic ballot.  So a Gillespie + 0.5% win with all other statewide Dems winning and a bunch of Dem HoD gains is a distinct possibility.  I don't know how the heck I would interpret that in terms of 2018/20.

Really don't see it. Trump is beyond toxic in VA, and the state already voted 4 points to the left of the nation in 2016. Trump has little room for growth in the rural areas, but NoVA, Virginia Beach, Richmond+suburbs, etc. are far from maxed out for Ds. With the way Trump has governed I really see no path for him to win there in 2020 (or any other Republican, btw).


Keep in mind that Kaine is from VA.  Without Kaine, I think Clinton finishes somewhere between McAuliffe 2013 and Obama 2012.  It would still vote left of the nation, but not as dramatically.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2017, 04:09:08 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2017, 04:12:21 PM by Skill and Chance »

This was probably the Republicans' last chance to win anything statewide in VA. Barring a Larry Hogan vs. Anthony Brown situation, Ds should have a lock on the state and things will only get worse for the VA GOP from now on.

To me it looks more like VA is completely inelastic with a built in Dem edge since 2010.  3-6% Dem edge in presidential years, no matter what, and a 1-3% Dem edge in off-years and midterms. 

However, if Gillespie does win on Tuesday, as he has about a 40% chance of doing, I think we have to give Trump VA if he wins the PV in 2020.  So I wouldn't say this is the last chance, but 2020 likely will be.

I now think Fairfax and Herring will both outrun Northam and that Northam will trail the legislative generic ballot.  So a Gillespie + 0.5% win with all other statewide Dems winning and a bunch of Dem HoD gains is a distinct possibility.  I don't know how the heck I would interpret that in terms of 2018/20.

Really don't see it. Trump is beyond toxic in VA, and the state already voted 4 points to the left of the nation in 2016. Trump has little room for growth in the rural areas, but NoVA, Virginia Beach, Richmond+suburbs, etc. are far from maxed out for Ds. With the way Trump has governed I really see no path for him to win there in 2020 (or any other Republican, btw).


Keep in mind that Kaine is from VA.  Without Kaine, I think Clinton finishes somewhere between McAuliffe 2013 and Obama 2012.  It would still vote left of the nation, but not as dramatically.

VP boost has historically given 2 points at a maximum to the home state. So at a minimum, this would put VA at 2 points left of the nation, compared to 2012 where it was pretty much exactly the same as the nation.

Also, here are the regions from the polls sampling that I posted above:



Anyone want to estimate how these regions broke in 2016?  At a first glance, it seems bizarre that red and lime green could both be close at the same time.  VA Beach would have to be a Gillespie double digit blowout and the Eastern Shore, Charlottesville, Petersburg, and the small >40% black localities have to be doing a heck of a lot of work for Northam.  For obvious reasons, this year could be the most left wing Charlottesville/Albemarle has ever voted, but as for those other counties, the CW is that black turnout will be down vs. 2013.  Also, pretty sure both SW and NOVA are substantially closer than with Clinton/Trump, but I think that is consistent with CW.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.03 seconds with 14 queries.