NBC: Top 10 gubernatorial takeovers

[MT Treasurer]

Link.

1. NM
2. IL
3. ME
4. AK
5. CT
6. NV
7. MI
8. FL
9. OH
10. MN

Pretty bad, just like their Senate rankings.

[Dr. Arch]

WI nowhere to be seen...

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Pretty terrible list.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Certainly a more sensible list than their Senate ratings.

[Gass3268]

This is better then the Senate list, but still pretty bad.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Michigan needs to be on the top of the list.

Illinois and Alaska should be lower, if they are even on the list at all.

Connecticut and Minnesota have no place on the list whatsoever.

Wisconsin needs to be on the list, and near the top too.

New Hampshire, Maryland, and Iowa need to be on the list, at least somewhere.

[Meatball Ron]

Here's my list:

1. New Mexico (95% chance of flipping)
2. Illinois (80% chance of flipping)
3. Nevada (75% chance of flipping)
4. Michigan (70% chance of flipping)
5. Maine (60% chance of flipping) -- would be higher but I worry about vote splitting with independents
6. Wisconsin (50% chance of flipping)
7. Florida (50% chance of flipping)
8. Ohio (50% chance of flipping)
9. Connecticut (45% chance of flipping)
10. New Hampshire (40% chance of flipping)
11. Kansas (35% chance of flipping)
12. Maryland (35% chance of flipping)
13. Iowa (30% chance of flipping)
14. Oklahoma (25% chance of flipping)
15. Rhode Island (25% chance of flipping)
16. Alaska (20% chance of flipping)
17. Minnesota (15% chance of flipping)
18. Georgia (15% chance of flipping)
19. Colorado (10% chance of flipping)
20. Arizona (10% chance of flipping)

With all other races at a <5% chance of flipping

[Xing]

Some of these news stations are acting like Trump won Wisconsin by 8% or something, or like Walker's approval rating is above 60%. I fail to see how it's a less likely pick-up than Ohio or Minnesota. I'm not saying Walker's DOA, but he's definitely more likely to lose than Baldwin at this point.

I'd say that the first three are reasonable, but it goes downhill from there. I think Connecticut is a decent pick-up opportunity for Republicans, but is it really more likely to flip than Michigan? Also, even though Minnesota is possible for Republicans if they have a good night, there are easily 5 or 6 races not on that list which are more likely to flip.

[Rhenna]

1. Illinois (R>D)
2. New Mexico (R>D)
3. Michigan (R>D)
4. Wisconsin (R>D)
5. Alaska (I>R)
6. Maine (R>D)
7. Connecticut (D>R)
8. Florida (R>D)
9. Nevada (R>D)
10. New Hampshire (R>D)
I only really see the first 6 as likely. The rest are leaning that direction.

[Dr. Arch]

WI nowhere to be seen...

Well, there’s this:

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Still, WI definitely flips before MN IMO. And so does RI.

I agree.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Here's my list:

1. New Mexico (95% chance of flipping)
2. Illinois (80% chance of flipping)
3. Nevada (75% chance of flipping)
4. Michigan (70% chance of flipping)
5. Maine (60% chance of flipping) -- would be higher but I worry about vote splitting with independents
6. Wisconsin (50% chance of flipping)
7. Florida (50% chance of flipping)
8. Ohio (50% chance of flipping)
9. Connecticut (45% chance of flipping)
10. New Hampshire (40% chance of flipping)
11. Kansas (35% chance of flipping)
12. Maryland (35% chance of flipping)
13. Iowa (30% chance of flipping)
14. Oklahoma (25% chance of flipping)
15. Rhode Island (25% chance of flipping)
16. Alaska (20% chance of flipping)
17. Minnesota (15% chance of flipping)
18. Georgia (15% chance of flipping)
19. Colorado (10% chance of flipping)
20. Arizona (10% chance of flipping)

With all other races at a <5% chance of flipping

Agree, except I think Illinois should be lower, still >50% though.

[Sir Mohamed]

Here's my list:

1. New Mexico (95% chance of flipping)
2. Illinois (80% chance of flipping)
3. Nevada (75% chance of flipping)
4. Michigan (70% chance of flipping)
5. Maine (60% chance of flipping) -- would be higher but I worry about vote splitting with independents
6. Wisconsin (50% chance of flipping)
7. Florida (50% chance of flipping)
8. Ohio (50% chance of flipping)
9. Connecticut (45% chance of flipping)
10. New Hampshire (40% chance of flipping)
11. Kansas (35% chance of flipping)
12. Maryland (35% chance of flipping)
13. Iowa (30% chance of flipping)
14. Oklahoma (25% chance of flipping)
15. Rhode Island (25% chance of flipping)
16. Alaska (20% chance of flipping)
17. Minnesota (15% chance of flipping)
18. Georgia (15% chance of flipping)
19. Colorado (10% chance of flipping)
20. Arizona (10% chance of flipping)

With all other races at a <5% chance of flipping

Agree, except I think Illinois should be lower, still >50% though.

I'd suggest 70% for IL. But OH should be below 50%. Perhaps 35-40% chance for Dems to win this seat.

[Progressive Pessimist]

My Top Ten:

1. New Mexico
2. Michigan
3. Illinois
4. Maine
5. Nevada
6. Florida
7. Alaska
8. Wisconsin
9. Ohio
10. Connecticut

*Edit: Now that I am reminded that Maine will be using ranked choice voting, it changes my list slightly. Thanks for informing me Mondale. I also got a chance to remove my embarrassing misuse of "effects."*

[junior chįmp]

My Top Ten:

1. New Mexico
2. Michigan
3. Illinois
4. Nevada
5. Florida
6. Maine (would be higher, but I worry about the affects of Independent candidates)
7. Alaska
8. Wisconsin
9. Ohio
10. Connecticut

Maine will use ranked choice for 2018

[un]

Link.

1. NM
2. IL
3. ME
4. AK
5. CT
6. NV
7. MI
8. FL
9. OH
10. MN

Pretty bad, just like their Senate rankings.

Granted, it probably is a little difficult to pin point which states would flip with 10 options. 5 options would be better. I agree though, CT and MN on their before WI is silly.

[Sestak]

My Top Ten:

1. New Mexico
2. Michigan
3. Illinois
4. Nevada
5. Florida
6. Maine (would be higher, but I worry about the affects of Independent candidates)
7. Alaska
8. Wisconsin
9. Ohio
10. Connecticut

Maine will use ranked choice for 2018

Wait huh? Since when?