VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm done supporting Trump.  He's failed the conservative movement!

[Maxwell]

wow i hate all of you. you all suck.

be happy that the boy northam won and be happy that democrats of all stripes, progressive, socialist, moderate won in the HOUSE OF DELEGATES, the best name for a legislature.

[MT Treasurer]

Here's your tentative swing map compared to 2013:

Yeah, the swings we saw in 2016 were definitely not a "one-time thing".

[Roronoa D. Law]

Not sure anybody posted yet.

[IceSpear]

wow i hate all of you. you all suck.

be happy that the boy northam won and be happy that democrats of all stripes, progressive, socialist, moderate won in the HOUSE OF DELEGATES, the best name for a legislature.

I'm pretty sure it's only jfern that's not doing that.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Here's your tentative swing map compared to 2013:

Lol at SW VA. RIP Manchin.

Thanks for pissing on the victory parade. Your point isn't even valid.

What do you mean? I was celebrating the loss of Racist VA Hicks earlier. Unfortunately, in WV unlike in VA, they are a majority.

The "racist hicks" of SW VA unlike most of the rest of the state just gave a black Democrat LG candidate more votes than either Northam or Herring.

[Skill and Chance]

Here's your tentative swing map compared to 2013:

Yeah, the 2016 swings were definitely not a "one-time thing".

Totally.  I think GA-GOV will flip narrowly and AZ-SEN (Flake->Open) will be a fairly easy Dem pickup now.  Even Cruz could absolutely get a mid single digit scare.

[Nyvin]

Not sure anybody posted yet.

Wow,  VA-7 was close!

[Dr. Arch]

Not sure anybody posted yet.

Wow,  VA-7 was close!

Give it another year of Trump, and those pink districts are slipping right away.

[Maxwell]

tell that boy Scott Taylor to WATCH HIS BACK.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Here's your tentative swing map compared to 2013:

Yeah, the swings we saw in 2016 were definitely not a "one-time thing".

Politically, I've thought of Democratic NoVA as Fairfax, Prince William and Loudon plus the cities, while Fauquier, Stafford were transitioning. I'm very happy to see this trend continuing, and I'm actually a little surprised to see Jefferson and Frederick Counties also tracking D this cycle. I wasn't even aware that the NoVA growth had made it that far west in any significant numbers.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's your tentative swing map compared to 2013:

Lol at SW VA. RIP Manchin.

Thanks for pissing on the victory parade. Your point isn't even valid.

What do you mean? I was celebrating the loss of Racist VA Hicks earlier. Unfortunately, in WV unlike in VA, they are a majority.

"I'm a Democrat, but I'm happy when the people I don't like vote Republican because I care more about my sense of class superiority than about any substantive political belief."

[Roronoa D. Law]

tell that boy Scott Taylor to WATCH HIS BACK.

[Skill and Chance]

Totally.  I think GA-GOV will flip narrowly and AZ-SEN (Flake->Open) will be a fairly easy Dem pickup now.  Even Cruz could absolutely get a mid single digit scare.

Thoughts on WV-SEN and MD-GOV? I think WV is a Tossup, but Hogan may be done for.

They are both in something of a different league in terms of having separate brands from their national parties.  If I had to call it, I would now say both lose by 1-5%.  I do think Baker holds on in MA, though.

The senate/house split could get very weird.  It's somewhat possible that all of the Romney Dems in the Senate lose while they gain in the high 30's/low 40's and flip the House.  We did just see a couple of VA HoD Dems outrun Northam/Clinton substantially, though, so it's not that every Dem in the Midwest is done by any means.      

[Tartarus Sauce]

Not sure anybody posted yet.

Wow,  VA-7 was close!

Give it another year of Trump, and those pink districts are slipping right away.

Eh, Districts 1 and 5 would need an incredibly good challenger and possibly an ugly scandal to tar the incumbents, or have them unexpectedly resign at the end of next year so it's an open seat, in order to be competitive in a wave election. And it would need to be a massive wave.

District 7 is definitely on the table at this rate though.

[Skill and Chance]

tell that boy Scott Taylor to WATCH HIS BACK.

7 is interesting.  When it was drawn in 2012, it was intended to be the most Safe R in the state after the SWVA seat. 

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Taylor is too entrenched.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

tell that boy Scott Taylor to WATCH HIS BACK.

His challenger in 2016 was some lame Berniecrat who campaigned on nothing but her love of Sanders' personality. I knew as soon as I saw her website for the first time that she was going to get crushed by Taylor. I think if the Dems can nominate a veteran candidate in that race that they'd have around a 40% chance of taking it.

[heatcharger]

Taylor is too entrenched.

... what? Look Northam winning his district is one of the least surprising things about tonight and is probably not all that indicative of future events, but if Democrats put up a strong challenger, it could be interesting.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Taylor is too entrenched.

He literally won the seat last year.

[Cactus Jack]

Here's your tentative swing map compared to 2013:

Lol at SW VA. RIP Manchin.

IS, I respect you, but please feck off. You're reaching jfern levels here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's your tentative swing map compared to 2013:

Lol at SW VA. RIP Manchin.

IS, I respect you, but please feck off. You're reaching jfern levels here.

"Reaching"?

[Kamala]

Lynwood Lewis, perhaps?

[Hydera]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2017&off=5&elect=0&f=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2009&f=0&off=5&elect=0


btw the total gubernatorial margin for republicans in 2009 and democrats this year is exactly the same.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Taylor is too entrenched.

He literally won the seat last year.

But he was a state rep from the area even before, plus a ton of $, moderate persona, ok looking, good name rec, now incumbency, R leaning district, Likely R.