VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[MAINEiac4434]

@PU: And wasn't Fairfax the furthest left campaign at that?  Something something Racist WV and SWVA hicks something something they said.

May have something to do with people thinking that Vogel is a NoVa elitist.

[MAINEiac4434]

@PU: And wasn't Fairfax the furthest left campaign at that?  Something something Racist WV and SWVA hicks something something they said.

May have something to do with people thinking that Vogel is a NoVa elitist.

[heatcharger]

Any chance Democrats could make a deal to flip a Republican Senator?

Well Assad-admirer Dick Black probably can't be convinced of anything, and the only other Clinton-won Senate district is held by Frank Wagner of all people. A deal to flip someone might be unlikely, but maybe one of them can be convinced to get on board with Medicaid expansion, redistricting, and other pieces of the Democratic agenda.

[Gass3268]

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HD-40 might have flipped back

[uti2]

I know a handful of Obama 2012 Trump 2016 voters personally. Of course, it's just a handful of people in Ohio. I actually get the impression he's really well liked up here compared to places like Colorado or Virginia.

Trump seems to do well in the blue collar states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan) whereas I think more upscale whites in Virginia and Colorado will be a problem for him. Florida I have no clue.

As I've been saying for a couple of years now, Virginia is basically gone for the GOP. Atleast in the short-term.

I noticed the difference between upscale white, more socially conscious voters in places like Virginia and Colorado and downscale white, less politically correct voters in places like Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan. Pennsylvania has a little of both.

I've found this demographic very, very fascinating since I've been harping on it for years and it ended up being the decisive forgotten votes that propelled Trump to the White House.

I think two things have big factors with these voters:

1. Money
- For anyone of my friends or family, even those of us who make good money for white working class Americans, in order to move to a state like Colorado or Virginia, especially a nice place, we would need a significant amount of money. This tells me that many of these white voters in Virginia and Colorado are actually quite well off, perhaps more college degrees. This could also allow them to embrace more of a social justice agenda than people like myself and many in the Midwest since our focus is still on economics.

2. Class
- To be honest, the things that "shocked" all those yoga-training career oriented 28 year old college educated women in a place like Prince William County didn't really have an impact in a place like Lake County, OH or Macomb County, MI. I think political correctness is a much, much bigger issue once you don't have finances to worry about and if you have much more college education.

None the less, I find these white voter differences very interesting as they will be useful in predicting elections in the future.

Virginia is not gone for Republicans statewide, moreso presidential. They have a base in VB, rural Virginia, and huge numbers in SW. The trick is to moderate and when I say moderate, I mean actual moderation, pre-1980s style GOP. The GOP has turned up the Trumpism heat in VA and it only helps them with their base in rural and let's face it, dying off literally and figuratively, parts of the state.

You are correct in terms of the point about VA having a white professional class, esp. in NoVA and Richmond. It makes these areas either Dem control or potential for moderate and liberal Republican swing districts but the GOP won't do that for the sake of RINO! in the primaries. It will haunt them for a couple more decades, at least. However, the idea that Virginia is now free to have Dems run full-tilt on SJW issues in VA is absolutely wrong. Economic issues, education, infrastructure, and good governance, are still the major issues here.

This.

Bob McDonnell is the model that GOP should look at if they want to win statewide in VA.

Mcdonnell wasn't a moderate, he's talking about the VA GOP running Rs like Hogan.

[heatcharger]

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HD-40 might have flipped back

Is that the net gain for Hugo? Tanner was up 68 before this.

[Gass3268]

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HD-40 might have flipped back

Is that the net gain for Hugo? Tanner was up 68 before this.

Not sure, that's all they said

[Dr. Arch]

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HD-40 might have flipped back

HD-40 was classified as a D pickup by VPAP already (50.11-49.89), so it's a bigger margin than before. However, if this continues to be the case, we'll get 17-18 seats (and the house), as there are a number of HDs that were really close.

[Gass3268]

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HD-40 might have flipped back

HD-40 was classified as a D pickup by VPAP already (50.11-49.89), so it's a bigger margin than before. However, if this continues to be the case, we'll get 17-18 seats (and the house), as there are a number of HDs that were really close.

Hugo is the Republican incumbent.

[Dr. Arch]

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HD-40 might have flipped back

HD-40 was classified as a D pickup by VPAP already (50.11-49.89), so it's a bigger margin than before. However, if this continues to be the case, we'll get 17-18 seats (and the house), as there are a number of HDs that were really close.

Hugo is the Republican incumbent.

Oh, crap, that might be enough to flip it if Tanner didn't pick up anything, which I doubt. Have absentees been counted yet?

[Torie]

Maybe somebody already noted this, but a guy on RRH observed that it was not that Gillespie did not get a good vote in NOVA for a Pub in an off year election (he did better than Pubs in the recent past), but rather that there was a big spike in the vote by white "liberals," in some places by a stunning amount.  They were all fired up!

[heatcharger]

Oh, crap, that might be enough to flip it if Tanner didn't pick up anything, which I doubt. Have absentees been counted yet?

Yes absentees have been counted, but provisionals from the 6 Prince William precincts have not been reported. And I don't know how many Tanner gained from provisionals in Fairfax County.

[Yank2133]

I know a handful of Obama 2012 Trump 2016 voters personally. Of course, it's just a handful of people in Ohio. I actually get the impression he's really well liked up here compared to places like Colorado or Virginia.

Trump seems to do well in the blue collar states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan) whereas I think more upscale whites in Virginia and Colorado will be a problem for him. Florida I have no clue.

As I've been saying for a couple of years now, Virginia is basically gone for the GOP. Atleast in the short-term.

I noticed the difference between upscale white, more socially conscious voters in places like Virginia and Colorado and downscale white, less politically correct voters in places like Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan. Pennsylvania has a little of both.

I've found this demographic very, very fascinating since I've been harping on it for years and it ended up being the decisive forgotten votes that propelled Trump to the White House.

I think two things have big factors with these voters:

1. Money
- For anyone of my friends or family, even those of us who make good money for white working class Americans, in order to move to a state like Colorado or Virginia, especially a nice place, we would need a significant amount of money. This tells me that many of these white voters in Virginia and Colorado are actually quite well off, perhaps more college degrees. This could also allow them to embrace more of a social justice agenda than people like myself and many in the Midwest since our focus is still on economics.

2. Class
- To be honest, the things that "shocked" all those yoga-training career oriented 28 year old college educated women in a place like Prince William County didn't really have an impact in a place like Lake County, OH or Macomb County, MI. I think political correctness is a much, much bigger issue once you don't have finances to worry about and if you have much more college education.

None the less, I find these white voter differences very interesting as they will be useful in predicting elections in the future.

Virginia is not gone for Republicans statewide, moreso presidential. They have a base in VB, rural Virginia, and huge numbers in SW. The trick is to moderate and when I say moderate, I mean actual moderation, pre-1980s style GOP. The GOP has turned up the Trumpism heat in VA and it only helps them with their base in rural and let's face it, dying off literally and figuratively, parts of the state.

You are correct in terms of the point about VA having a white professional class, esp. in NoVA and Richmond. It makes these areas either Dem control or potential for moderate and liberal Republican swing districts but the GOP won't do that for the sake of RINO! in the primaries. It will haunt them for a couple more decades, at least. However, the idea that Virginia is now free to have Dems run full-tilt on SJW issues in VA is absolutely wrong. Economic issues, education, infrastructure, and good governance, are still the major issues here.

This.

Bob McDonnell is the model that GOP should look at if they want to win statewide in VA.

Mcdonnell wasn't a moderate, he's talking about the VA GOP running Rs like Hogan.

I know, but McDonnell ran as a moderate and ignored social issues for the most part.

[RI]

I was rather surprised by how poorly Northam did in the rural black counties in SE Virginia.

[Holmes]

Could still flip back after provisionals?

[cp]

Any updates on the final HoD count?

[Hydera]

I was rather surprised by how poorly Northam did in the rural black counties in SE Virginia.

a lot of those rural black counties is also 30-40% white. These voters actually used to vote more democrat than other whites nearby more whiter counties. Since Trump they've voted more like their neighboring white counterparts in 60-70% white areas, aka more republican. So black turnout is pretty average but whites there become more republican.  Pre-2014 they were probably 30-35% dem. after their probably 20-30%.

[Bidenworth2020]

Any updates on the final HoD count?

it seems to be 48-48

[SoLongAtlas]

Hugo now up by 15 votes http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

[Gass3268]

Hugo now up by 15 votes http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

It's still doable to flip that with provisionals and I don't think they've counted those yet.

[Bidenworth2020]

Hugo now up by 15 votes http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

nah. less votes counted than VPAP has.

[SoLongAtlas]

True. So I checked the VA Elections Dept page again. They have the updated numbers for PW but still haven't updated the Ffx portion yet. VPAP has Tanner up at https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/election-8842/map/

[IceSpear]

It's hilarious to go back earlier in this thread and read all the panic, lol. Election day threads are so horrible. They should be closed until the polls are closed.

[SoLongAtlas]

Ffx County just came in. Hugo has won by 115 votes. http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

[Dr. Arch]

Ffx County just came in. Hugo has won by 115 votes. http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

Let's give it a bit.