VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[cvparty]

Very cool chart:



Source

which district is that one red dot in the first quadrant

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

so n districts flipped from Clinton to Gillespie.
n + 7 districts flipped from Trump to Northam.
Does anyone know what n is?

[Oryxslayer]

Very cool chart:



Source

which district is that one red dot in the first quadrant

Probably HD 40, the one remaining true NOVA seat occupied by the Republicans, and one of the four that will likely head to a recount. The dem was actually ahead there on election night, but a recanvas saw him lose the lead the next day.

[NOVA Green]

So when will we know the recount results from the HoD results outstanding?

[Frodo]

He appears to have won 58 districts.

Oh wow. This means that Democrats still have plenty of room to grow in the next election. There could be a clear majority by 2019.

Yes. In fact, it would be fair to say Democrats are favored to take back both the state Senate and HoD in 2019 if the election is even half as good as it was this week. They don't have over a dozen incumbents to take out next time around, and because those were almost all Clinton districts, they will be easier to keep. In many ways this was a massive correction on an over-extended GOP that got greedy in the last round  of redistricting.

As it stands now, there are a few Clinton districts and like a half dozen marginal Trump districts Democrats could make serious plays for. As soon as they take complete control, the HoD gerrymander comes down and there will probably be a slew of pro-voter reforms passed.

It would be nice if someone (DDHQ, perhaps?) could come up with a map showing partisan control district-by-district in the Virginia Senate, like we saw with the House of Delegates in the run-up to this Tuesday. 

[Oryxslayer]

He appears to have won 58 districts.

Oh wow. This means that Democrats still have plenty of room to grow in the next election. There could be a clear majority by 2019.

Yes. In fact, it would be fair to say Democrats are favored to take back both the state Senate and HoD in 2019 if the election is even half as good as it was this week. They don't have over a dozen incumbents to take out next time around, and because those were almost all Clinton districts, they will be easier to keep. In many ways this was a massive correction on an over-extended GOP that got greedy in the last round  of redistricting.

As it stands now, there are a few Clinton districts and like a half dozen marginal Trump districts Democrats could make serious plays for. As soon as they take complete control, the HoD gerrymander comes down and there will probably be a slew of pro-voter reforms passed.

It would be nice if someone (DDHQ, perhaps?) could come up with a map showing partisan control district-by-district in the Virginia Senate, like we saw with the House of Delegates in the run-up to this Tuesday. 

Here is a map of the current senate - note how Dems really drew the map in their favor in 2010:
https://www.vpap.org/elections/senate/

Here is a map showing Clinton's margin in said seats. Reps hold 3 Clinton districts (10, 12, 13,) and 1 marginal Trump district (7). Of course more could be competitive, but this is purely PVI based.
https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/2016-presidential-results-by-senate/


Also, the Dem in HD 27, the hardest seat to flip in a recount has conceded. This now puts the chamber at 49-48 D, with 3 seats heading to probable recounts.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I guess Glen Sturtevant and Dick Black can expect a nice cushy appointment from Northam...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I guess Glen Sturtevant and Dick Black can expect a nice cushy appointment from Northam...

Dick Black will absolutely never get an appointment from Northam. A quick Google search would show why.

Considering the name, I'm not sure I want to...

[_]

I guess Glen Sturtevant and Dick Black can expect a nice cushy appointment from Northam...

Dick Black will absolutely never get an appointment from Northam. A quick Google search would show why.

Considering the name, I'm not sure I want to...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/outspoken-virginia-senator-travels-to-syria-in-support-of-assad/2016/04/27/96994e08-0c94-11e6-8ab8-9ad050f76d7d_story.html

[Virginiá]

I guess Glen Sturtevant and Dick Black can expect a nice cushy appointment from Northam...

My guess is they are already strategizing over it, although we might not see anything for a long time, since there is no real urgency as there would maybe before redistricting or a big, consequential policy fight. For instance in mid-2014, Phillip Puckett (D) announced his resignation from the Senate, opening up a D-held Senate district in SWVA. That took over half a year to materialize.

Putting aside the Assad-lover and based on how correlated the victories were to Clinton or marginal Trump districts, there are a few targets in the Senate: Bryce Reeves, Siobhan Dunnavant, Glen Sturtevant and Frank Wagner. Those are all districts Democrats could absolutely win in a hotly-contested special election, and they are pretty vulnerable in 2019. I would peg Sturtevant as a given loss right now, but as a Senate sophomore he might want to try his luck . Any of the others are reaches at best, although I suppose there are a couple districts that might be possible if Democrats parked an army of volunteers and money in them.

I'm not so sure about the HoD. I'd have to think some of the incumbents who almost lost may be looking to move on/up voluntarily instead of getting chased out of Richmond by a mob of angry Democrats in 2019.

[Gass3268]

I guess Glen Sturtevant and Dick Black can expect a nice cushy appointment from Northam...

My guess is they are already strategizing over it, although we might not see anything for a long time, since there is no real urgency as there would maybe before redistricting or a big, consequential policy fight. For instance in mid-2014, Phillip Puckett (D) announced his resignation from the Senate, opening up a D-held Senate district in SWVA. That took over half a year to materialize.

Putting aside the Assad-lover and based on how correlated the victories were to Clinton or marginal Trump districts, there are a few targets in the Senate: Bryce Reeves, Siobhan Dunnavant, Glen Sturtevant and Frank Wagner. Those are all districts Democrats could absolutely win in a hotly-contested special election, and they are pretty vulnerable in 2019. I would peg Sturtevant as a given loss right now, but as a Senate sophomore he might want to try his luck . Any of the others are reaches at best, although I suppose there are a couple districts that might be possible if Democrats parked an army of volunteers and money in them.

I'm not so sure about the HoD. I'd have to think some of the incumbents who almost lost may be looking to move on/up voluntarily instead of getting chased out of Richmond by a mob of angry Democrats in 2019.

My guess is that Northam will wait until after the recounts are finished before making announcements on his cabinet.

[Oryxslayer]

I guess Glen Sturtevant and Dick Black can expect a nice cushy appointment from Northam...

My guess is they are already strategizing over it, although we might not see anything for a long time, since there is no real urgency as there would maybe before redistricting or a big, consequential policy fight. For instance in mid-2014, Phillip Puckett (D) announced his resignation from the Senate, opening up a D-held Senate district in SWVA. That took over half a year to materialize.

Putting aside the Assad-lover and based on how correlated the victories were to Clinton or marginal Trump districts, there are a few targets in the Senate: Bryce Reeves, Siobhan Dunnavant, Glen Sturtevant and Frank Wagner. Those are all districts Democrats could absolutely win in a hotly-contested special election, and they are pretty vulnerable in 2019. I would peg Sturtevant as a given loss right now, but as a Senate sophomore he might want to try his luck . Any of the others are reaches at best, although I suppose there are a couple districts that might be possible if Democrats parked an army of volunteers and money in them.

I'm not so sure about the HoD. I'd have to think some of the incumbents who almost lost may be looking to move on/up voluntarily instead of getting chased out of Richmond by a mob of angry Democrats in 2019.

My guess is that Northam will wait until after the recounts are finished before making announcements on his cabinet.

I agree. Yancey, the R undergoing a recount in HD 94 for example is an obvious pick. He has traditionally been Pro-Solar and somewhat pro-choice, making him an ideologically easy choice to kick upstairs. However, that appointment can only happen if the recount finds him victorious.

[Skill and Chance]

He appears to have won 58 districts.

Oh wow. This means that Democrats still have plenty of room to grow in the next election. There could be a clear majority by 2019.

Yes. In fact, it would be fair to say Democrats are favored to take back both the state Senate and HoD in 2019 if the election is even half as good as it was this week. They don't have over a dozen incumbents to take out next time around, and because those were almost all Clinton districts, they will be easier to keep. In many ways this was a massive correction on an over-extended GOP that got greedy in the last round  of redistricting.

As it stands now, there are a few Clinton districts and like a half dozen marginal Trump districts Democrats could make serious plays for. As soon as they take complete control, the HoD gerrymander comes down and there will probably be a slew of pro-voter reforms passed.

It would be nice if someone (DDHQ, perhaps?) could come up with a map showing partisan control district-by-district in the Virginia Senate, like we saw with the House of Delegates in the run-up to this Tuesday. 

Here is a map of the current senate - note how Dems really drew the map in their favor in 2010:
https://www.vpap.org/elections/senate/

Here is a map showing Clinton's margin in said seats. Reps hold 3 Clinton districts (10, 12, 13,) and 1 marginal Trump district (7). Of course more could be competitive, but this is purely PVI based.
https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/2016-presidential-results-by-senate/


Also, the Dem in HD 27, the hardest seat to flip in a recount has conceded. This now puts the chamber at 49-48 D, with 3 seats heading to probable recounts.

It's highly likely the 394 vote margin for the Dem in HD-85 in VA Beach will hold.  Don't understand why her opponent hasn't conceded yet there.  From there, HD-94 with the 14 vote Republican lead will almost surely be where the action is in the recount and provisionals.  HD-28 with the 84 vote Republican lead is on the outer edge of what could flip in a recount, particularly if there are a lot of provisionals left to be counted.  I would expect the 115 vote lead post-recanvass in HD-40 to hold, so the likeliest outcome is 50D/50R with power sharing as there could be enough heavily Dem leaning provisionals to flip HD-94 before the recount even begins.  Outside chance of 51/49 either way.

[Gass3268]

Chesterfield County flipped to Northam

[OneJ]

Chesterfield County flipped to Northam

Even though it won't happen, I wish Caroline and Nelson counties would flip too.

[Holmes]

Chesterfield County flipped to Northam

Wow

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

#TrumpismIsDead

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Awesome news about Chesterfield!

[IceSpear]

Chesterfield County flipped to Northam

Was waiting for that...

Dominating!

[Dr. Arch]

That suburban Republican curb-stomping comin to an area near you

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Has a Dem ever carried Chesterfield in a statewide race before this?

[Keep cool-idge]

Dang Well Trumpism is DEAD when I said Gillespie would win 48.72%-48.31% I thought that chesterfield would be a 7-11 point victory.
This is just insane!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dang Well Trumpism is DEAD when I said Gillespie would win 48.72%-48.31% I thought that chesterfield would be a 7-11 point victory.
This is just insane!

Well your Predictions are trash.

Has a Dem ever carried Chesterfield in a statewide race before this?

Warner 2008

What about before that?

[Keep cool-idge]

Has a Dem ever carried Chesterfield in a statewide race before this?

Warner 2008

Northam 2013

[heatcharger]

Has a Dem ever carried Chesterfield in a statewide race before this?

In the post-Nixon era Virginia, Northam in 2013 when he won statewide by 12%; Mark Warner in 2008, when he won statewide by 32%; Chuck Robb in 1988, when he won statewide by 41%; Mary Sue Terry in 1985 and 1989 when she won statewide by 23% and 27% respectively.