VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Keep cool-idge]

Dang Well Trumpism is DEAD when I said Gillespie would win 48.72%-48.31% I thought that chesterfield would be a 7-11 point victory.
This is just insane!

Well your Predictions are trash.

Has a Dem ever carried Chesterfield in a statewide race before this?

Warner 2008

What about before that?

Well I thought turn out would be at 2013 levels and that Gillespie would do about the same as in 2014 but a bit stronger in central and southwestern Virginia and a bit worse in Northern Virginia.

[Keep cool-idge]

Has a Dem ever carried Chesterfield in a statewide race before this?

In the post-Reagan era Virginia, Northam in 2013 when he won statewide by 12%; Mark Warner in 2008, when he won statewide by 32%; Chuck Robb in 1988, when he won statewide by 41%; Mary Sue Terry twice in 1985 and 1989 when she won statewide by 23% and 27% respectively. Chesterfield was basically Cobb County with the damn finally breaking open. Although, who would've thought it'd be on Ed Gillespie's watch that it finally goes down?

Even trump won chesterfield and Virginia Beach it’s crazy how Gillespie lost both!

[Holmes]

The last time a Democratic candidate for governor won Chesterfield must've been 1961?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Virginia is now a blue state. The Chesterfield results are devastating for the VAGOP.

[heatcharger]

The last time a Democratic candidate for governor won Chesterfield must've been 1961?

And he was a segregationist. Totally different party back then.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Just waiting for Wikipedia to update the results map...

[Rookie Yinzer]

Virginia is now a blue state. The Chesterfield results are devastating for the VAGOP.

I want Kaine to absolutely obliterate Corey Stewart next year.

[Skill and Chance]

Virginia is now a blue state. The Chesterfield results are devastating for the VAGOP.

I want Kaine to absolutely obliterate Corey Stewart next year.

It is remarkable that Northam improved on Clinton/Kaine throughout the Richmond metro even though Kaine was a former Mayor of Richmond and Northam is from Hampton Roads.  No one on the 2017 ticket was from Richmond.  Fairfax lives in Alexandria and Herring is from Loudoun County.  Clinton/Kaine did do slightly better there in a PVI sense, but Northam shifted VA Beach from R+5 to R+2 relative to the statewide result.*

*Chesterfield has consistently been more R in state elections than in federal ones, while VA Beach has consistently been more D in state elections than in federal ones.  Obama lost VA Beach in 2008, but Kaine actually carried it in 2005 with a lower statewide margin of victory. 

[Panhandle Progressive]

Chesterfield County flipped to Northam

That means all metro areas with at least 100,000 registered voters went for Northam. I'm lovin' it.

[Skill and Chance]

BTW hopefully Tom Perriello gets a soft landing into Warner's senate seat when he likely retires in 2020 or maybe VA-10 where he now lives.

VA-GOV 2021 will be very interesting.  Another Herring vs. Fairfax primary?  I don't think Herring will sit out another cycle in the AG post.

[heatcharger]

Warner isn't likely to retire in 2020. He's having too much fun with the Russia investigation.

Perriello should hope to get a cushy spot in the next Democratic administration and either wait for a more favorable Charlottesville district or hope Kaine retires in 2024.

[Skill and Chance]

Warner isn't likely to retire in 2020. He's having too much fun with the Russia investigation.

Perriello should hope to get a cushy spot in the next Democratic administration and either wait for a more favorable Charlottesville district or hope Kaine retires in 2024.

The problem is Charlotesville is nowhere near big enough to control a CD and most of the territory that surrounds Charlottesville is now as lopsided R as Charlotesville/Albemarle is D.  The only way he gets a favorable CD there is if Democrats control redistricting and draw VA-07 up I-64 to connect the white liberal parts of Richmond and Henrico with Charlottesville.  And even then that might not stand up in court with the new SCOTUS cases on partisan gerrymandering.  I suppose he's young enough to keep working for progressive think tanks and wait around until 2031 when Democrats will almost surely control the state and Charlottesville could be significantly bigger.

Running for VA-10 next year is another option, since he lives in NOVA now, but that primary is already a clown car with Comstock likely being toast.

Another possibility is that a Dem legislature could put him on the VA Supreme Court in a few years.

[libertpaulian]

If Non-Swing Voter hadn't terminated his account, I'm sure he'd be on here gloating "Toldja so!" every day for the rest of forever.

[Maxwell]

If Non-Swing Voter hadn't terminated his account, I'm sure he'd be on here gloating "Toldja so!" every day for the rest of forever.

Non-Swing Voter probably voted for Hydra, assuming we're taking his personality seriously.

[heatcharger]

VPAP has the gubernatorial race by state senate district.

Northam won 24 state senate districts out of 40, including 3 Trump-won districts.

[Dr. Arch]

VPAP has the gubernatorial race by state senate district.

Northam won 24 state senate districts out of 40, including 3 Trump-won districts.

2019 is looking good.

[heatcharger]

cool

[IceSpear]

Racist VA Hicks delivered for Gillespie. Luckily, they weren't enough.

[Antonio the Sixth]

cool

you mean depressing

[IceSpear]

cool

you mean depressing

Why? Republicans view their urban curbstompings as badges of honor.

[Antonio the Sixth]

cool

you mean depressing

Why? Republicans view their urban curbstompings as badges of honor.

The ideal Democratic coalition is cities+countryside vs suburbs, not cities+suburbs vs countryside.

[heatcharger]

The ideal Democratic coalition is cities+countryside vs suburbs, not cities+suburbs vs countryside.

Uhhh why exactly? Political geography isn't the same in every country you know, and nor would that be ideal.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The ideal Democratic coalition is cities+countryside vs suburbs, not cities+suburbs vs countryside.

Uhhh why exactly? Political geography isn't the same in every country you know, and nor would that be ideal.

Because left-wing parties ought to stand with poor people, and American suburbs are overwhelmingly wealthy.

Indeed, that shouldn't be the same in every country. In Europe where a good part of the suburbs are working-class, these places should vote to the left.

[IceSpear]

The ideal Democratic coalition is cities+countryside vs suburbs, not cities+suburbs vs countryside.

Uhhh why exactly? Political geography isn't the same in every country you know, and nor would that be ideal.

Because left-wing parties ought to stand with poor people, and American suburbs are overwhelmingly wealthy.

Indeed, that shouldn't be the same in every country. In Europe where a good part of the suburbs are working-class, these places should vote to the left.

You can't stand with people that don't want to stand with you (because you stand with minorities, many of whom are poor as well.)

[heatcharger]

The ideal Democratic coalition is cities+countryside vs suburbs, not cities+suburbs vs countryside.

Uhhh why exactly? Political geography isn't the same in every country you know, and nor would that be ideal.

Because left-wing parties ought to stand with poor people, and American suburbs are overwhelmingly wealthy.

Indeed, that shouldn't be the same in every country. In Europe where a good part of the suburbs are working-class, these places should vote to the left.

Rural America is not nearly as uniformly poor as you suggest, and a lot of those salt-of-the-earth real Americans just don't want to stand side-by-side with other less well-off people. I don't know why this hasn't hit you yet.