VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Gass3268]

I could be wrong about this, but it is worth keeping in mind that even in NoVA the most Republican precincts often report first. Gillespie was up big in Loudoun County in 2014 with 10% reporting or so, I believe.

I know that's the case for Prince William County. The big population bases and the Democratic strongholds are along I-95 and I-66, but the area in-between is more Republican and it reports first.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

From 538, we have the average result for each county out of the 2013 governor's race, 2014 senate race, and 2016 presidential race. Gillespie should aim to be consistently beating these averages:


GOP VOTE MARGIN RELATIVE TO STATEWIDE PERFORMANCE
LOCATION  2016 PRESIDENT  2014 SENATE   2013 GOVERNOR  AVG.

Accomack County   +17.0   +12.5   +14.3   +14.6
Albemarle County   -19.5   -11.2   -16.4   -15.7
Alleghany County   +42.2   -8.2   +11.3   +15.1
Amelia County   +42.0   +30.6   +32.5   +35.1
Amherst County   +35.6   +24.9   +29.9   +30.2
Appomattox County   +51.5   +39.6   +46.5   +45.9
Arlington County   -53.9   -42.8   -46.9   -47.9
Augusta County   +54.8   +45.7   +45.2   +48.6
Bath County   +47.2   +13.5   +26.8   +29.2
Bedford County   +54.4   +43.0   +48.6   +48.7
Bland County   +72.9   +42.2   +51.8   +55.7
Botetourt County   +52.7   +35.2   +41.8   +43.3
Brunswick County   -13.4   -21.5   -21.5   -18.8
Buchanan County   +65.6   +22.4   +40.0   +42.7
Buckingham County   +16.6   +6.6   +8.5   +10.6
Campbell County   +52.1   +41.7   +49.3   +47.7
Caroline County   +10.4   -4.0   -2.8   +1.2
Carroll County   +64.7   +33.7   +39.1   +45.9
Charles City County   -19.6   -29.8   -26.2   -25.2
Charlotte County   +28.1   +17.6   +22.5   +22.8
Chesterfield County   +7.5   +9.5   +10.3   +9.1
Clarke County   +25.0   +19.6   +14.6   +19.8
Craig County   +62.6   +28.7   +43.3   +44.9
Culpeper County   +30.5   +32.3   +30.6   +31.2
Cumberland County   +18.8   +8.9   +11.7   +13.2
Dickenson County   +61.2   +15.1   +29.9   +35.4
Dinwiddie County   +17.7   +3.9   +4.2   +8.6
Essex County   +7.5   +4.9   +5.9   +6.1
Fairfax County   -30.5   -16.7   -19.7   -22.3
Fauquier County   +29.8   +31.0   +27.3   +29.4
Floyd County   +42.5   +15.3   +27.6   +28.5
Fluvanna County   +14.6   +11.8   +7.9   +11.5
Franklin County   +47.2   +26.3   +34.7   +36.1
Frederick County   +40.3   +37.4   +35.5   +37.8
Giles County   +53.6   +23.8   +30.6   +36.0
Gloucester County   +44.6   +30.5   +29.8   +35.0
Goochland County   +30.2   +26.0   +25.1   +27.1
Grayson County   +62.8   +28.3   +37.5   +42.9
Greene County   +36.8   +31.7   +27.8   +32.1
Greensville County   -13.5   -26.5   -22.3   -20.8
Halifax County   +21.8   +6.7   +17.7   +15.4
Hanover County   +37.6   +33.3   +34.8   +35.3
Henrico County   -15.5   -12.3   -10.7   -12.8
Henry County   +34.4   +14.6   +28.1   +25.7
Highland County   +47.5   +27.6   +33.3   +36.2
Isle of Wight County   +25.8   +15.4   +16.5   +19.3
James City County   +10.4   +11.5   +11.5   +11.2
King George County   +22.4   +25.7   +28.0   +25.4
King and Queen County   +32.9   +3.4   +6.2   +14.2
King William County   +40.4   +27.4   +27.4   +31.8
Lancaster County   +15.1   +14.9   +15.3   +15.1
Lee County   +68.3   +29.4   +51.0   +49.6
Loudoun County   -11.6   +1.3   -1.9   -4.1
Louisa County   +29.8   +19.3   +21.0   +23.4
Lunenburg County   +22.8   +8.5   +11.7   +14.4
Madison County   +37.0   +28.8   +23.2   +29.7
Mathews County   +42.1   +28.3   +26.8   +32.4
Mecklenburg County   +18.7   +15.1   +18.3   +17.4
Middlesex County   +31.3   +23.8   +21.8   +25.7
Montgomery County   +4.0   -5.3   +0.1   -0.4
Nelson County   +10.9   -3.3   -1.4   +2.1
New Kent County   +42.7   +33.8   +33.2   +36.6
Northampton County   -4.0   -8.6   -9.2   -7.3
Northumberland County   +24.9   +17.4   +19.0   +20.5
Nottoway County   +18.4   +4.6   +6.1   +9.7
Orange County   +31.7   +23.3   +21.8   +25.6
Page County   +54.8   +40.3   +31.3   +42.2
Patrick County   +60.3   +35.4   +45.1   +47.0
Pittsylvania County   +44.4   +26.9   +36.8   +36.1
Powhatan County   +51.7   +44.7   +45.9   +47.5
Prince Edward County   +0.0   -6.5   -5.4   -4.0
Prince George County   +22.2   +16.6   +17.9   +18.9
Prince William County   -15.8   -2.1   -5.7   -7.9
Pulaski County   +45.9   +18.8   +29.1   +31.3
Rappahannock County   +22.9   +12.2   +9.6   +14.9
Richmond County   +28.9   +17.6   +22.5   +23.0
Roanoke County   +32.9   +22.2   +29.0   +28.1
Rockbridge County   +34.7   +15.8   +20.5   +23.7
Rockingham County   +49.6   +46.5   +44.3   +46.8
Russell County   +64.0   +23.9   +35.7   +41.2
Scott County   +71.3   +45.1   +56.2   +57.6
Shenandoah County   +48.3   +40.5   +35.1   +41.3
Smyth County   +60.2   +28.4   +36.7   +41.8
Southampton County   +21.6   +5.0   +8.1   +11.6
Spotsylvania County   +22.0   +22.5   +20.0   +21.5
Stafford County   +14.4   +19.5   +17.0   +17.0
Surry County   -5.4   -21.8   -19.8   -15.7
Sussex County   -11.1   -14.9   -15.2   -13.7
Tazewell County   +71.4   +46.3   +53.1   +57.0
Warren County   +42.1   +32.0   +28.0   +34.1
Washington County   +58.6   +36.2   +44.3   +46.4
Westmoreland County   +12.5   +3.4   +2.5   +6.2
Wise County   +67.2   +42.7   +46.1   +52.0
Wythe County   +59.9   +31.2   +40.3   +43.8
York County   +22.4   +21.0   +22.2   +21.9
Alexandria City   -52.8   -41.6   -46.5   -47.0
Bristol City   +48.8   +31.0   +33.3   +37.7
Buena Vista City   +35.9   +18.8   +26.5   +27.1
Charlottesville City   -61.2   -56.9   -57.7   -58.6
Chesapeake City   +6.6   +1.3   -0.6   +2.5
Colonial Heights City   +44.5   +47.0   +45.7   +45.8
Covington City   +23.5   -21.8   -3.6   -0.6
Danville City   -14.5   -16.1   -2.7   -11.1
Emporia City   -26.1   -25.0   -22.7   -24.6
Fairfax City   -25.1   -10.5   -14.3   -16.6
Falls Church City   -52.6   -44.7   -45.7   -47.7
Franklin City   -21.7   -22.7   -20.4   -21.6
Fredericksburg City   -21.0   -19.0   -19.5   -19.8
Galax City   +44.1   +14.1   +23.8   +27.4
Hampton City   -32.3   -38.0   -36.0   -35.4
Harrisonburg City   -16.7   -6.3   -9.3   -10.8
Hopewell City   -4.0   -3.7   +1.6   -2.0
Lexington City   -25.0   -30.8   -26.2   -27.3
Lynchburg City   +14.2   +12.9   +16.2   +14.5
Manassas City   -10.8   -0.6   +0.3   -3.7
Manassas Park City   -22.8   -7.9   -9.4   -13.4
Martinsville City   -18.1   -22.6   -6.7   -15.8
Newport News City   -21.3   -22.1   -21.7   -21.7
Norfolk City   -37.3   -39.1   -40.9   -39.1
Norton City   +49.0   +22.3   +18.1   +29.8
Petersburg City   -71.4   -76.1   -75.4   -74.3
Poquoson City   +53.9   +48.5   +46.6   +49.7
Portsmouth City   -31.0   -41.5   -39.5   -37.3
Radford City   +0.6   -6.0   -1.2   -2.2
Richmond City   -58.2   -54.0   -54.1   -55.4
Roanoke City   -13.7   -21.3   -15.6   -16.9
Salem City   +30.0   +17.7   +26.1   +24.6
Staunton City   +3.5   +1.3   -0.4   +1.5
Suffolk City   -6.9   -13.0   -10.8   -10.2
Virginia Beach City   +8.9   +5.9   +4.5   +6.5
Waynesboro City   +16.6   +15.9   +16.1   +16.2
Williamsburg City   -37.8   -27.5   -29.8   -31.7
Winchester City    +1.8   +5.1   +3.7   +3.6

[LimoLiberal]

^^^^

I guarantee you Ed Gillespie will underperform all of those margins for the first county on that list

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I could be wrong about this, but it is worth keeping in mind that even in NoVA the most Republican precincts often report first. Gillespie was up big in Loudoun County in 2014 with 10% reporting or so, I believe.

I know that's the case for Prince William County. The big population bases and the Democratic strongholds are along I-95 and I-66, but the area in-between is more Republican and it reports first.

This is similar to what happens for Republicans in PA. I remember in 2010 a lot of people saw Sestak ahead in Crawford county and said that it meant that Toomey was doomed, but when the county was fully in, Toomey had won it 61%-35% or something like that. A lot of counties were like that and PA has the opposite progression with Dem areas coming first, even in Republican counties and then Republican precincts slowly start to eat away at the massive Dem lead statewide.

[Orser67]

If Gillespie loses the race, I'm looking forward to some post-Ossoff-like handwringing from Republicans who got their hopes up.

[Panhandle Progressive]

If Gillespie loses the race, I'm looking forward to some post-Ossoff-like handwringing from Republicans who got their hopes up.

Greedo will likely either be going off on everyone or *crickets chirp*

[Keep cool-idge]

If Gillespie loses the race, I'm looking forward to some post-Ossoff-like handwringing from Republicans who got their hopes up.

Greedo will likely either be going off on everyone or *crickets chirp*

Oh Greedo's reaction will be what I'm looking forward to most tomorrow night

LOL listen northam might win but I think Gillespie will eke it out.

[Keep cool-idge]

If Gillespie loses the race, I'm looking forward to some post-Ossoff-like handwringing from Republicans who got their hopes up.

Greedo will likely either be going off on everyone or *crickets chirp*

Oh Greedo's reaction will be what I'm looking forward to most tomorrow night

Can you guys at least wait until the race is called before you start bragging about your party's victory? It kinda makes the thread unreadable and also has little to nothing to do with the election itself.

Exactly.
By the way the Emerson poll showed Gillespie down slightly but....

Jill Vogel beating fairfax and it showed John Adams beating mark herring.

[swf541]

If Gillespie loses the race, I'm looking forward to some post-Ossoff-like handwringing from Republicans who got their hopes up.

Greedo will likely either be going off on everyone or *crickets chirp*

Oh Greedo's reaction will be what I'm looking forward to most tomorrow night

Can you guys at least wait until the race is called before you start bragging about your party's victory? It kinda makes the thread unreadable and also has little to nothing to do with the election itself.

I mean, we already have like ten threads for predictions.

Completely agreed

[Fuzzy Bear]

If Gillespie loses the race, I'm looking forward to some post-Ossoff-like handwringing from Republicans who got their hopes up.

Will Gillespie be Ossoffized?

OMG!  I made up a sniglet!

[IceSpear]

If Gillespie loses the race, I'm looking forward to some post-Ossoff-like handwringing from Republicans who got their hopes up.

Republicans have little to worry about if one or both of Northam and Murphy underperform Clinton.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Worth remembering tomorrow night:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Fudotei]

Northam by 2 is a pretty good result for Republicans - it shows that hard-on-immigration campaigns energize the GOP base but won't significantly alienate the Dem base to the point that it negates the edge.

2013 was a much better year for Republicans than it was now. What a hypothetical Dem operative wants to see is Northam up by like 9. That'd be somewhere near the national margin the Dems need to be playing with in order to have a home run midterm like some metric indicate.

Gillespie improving on Cuccinelli's margin in the shift in landscape would be nothing less than miraculous. This election (and how exactly Guadagno falls to Murphy) should give folks in the RNC a good idea whether to run on a national anti-sanctuary message in 2018.

Maybe the trick for Paul Ryan is to move a bit to the right on cultural issues.

[Vega]

Do we have a NYT (they normally wait until the day of, IIRC) or any other good results pages yet? 

[IceSpear]

No matter how many times we talk about the way Virginia reports the results, it's not going to stop the hand wringing lol. I look forward to all the doom prophecies when Gillespie is ahead with 1% in.

[heatcharger]

Northam by 2 is a pretty good result for Republicans - it shows that hard-on-immigration campaigns energize the GOP base but won't significantly alienate the Dem base to the point that it negates the edge.

I think you meant hard-line there...

[BudgieForce]

Northam by 2 is a pretty good result for Republicans - it shows that hard-on-immigration campaigns energize the GOP base but won't significantly alienate the Dem base to the point that it negates the edge.

2013 was a much better year for Republicans than it was now. What a hypothetical Dem operative wants to see is Northam up by like 9. That'd be somewhere near the national margin the Dems need to be playing with in order to have a home run midterm like some metric indicate.

Gillespie improving on Cuccinelli's margin in the shift in landscape would be nothing less than miraculous. This election (and how exactly Guadagno falls to Murphy) should give folks in the RNC a good idea whether to run on a national anti-sanctuary message in 2018.

Maybe the trick for Paul Ryan is to move a bit to the right on cultural issues.

You sound like a democrat after Ossoff lost.

[heatcharger]

He'd be right though. Anything <5 point Northam win should be considered embarrassing. That said, when would a race that ends up in a Northam blowout (like Kaine 2005) be called? Once he took the lead?

Kaine was projected the winner at 8:20 PM, but Kaine did far better in the rurals than Northam is likely to do, so it's not totally relevant.

[IceSpear]

Northam by 2 is a pretty good result for Republicans - it shows that hard-on-immigration campaigns energize the GOP base but won't significantly alienate the Dem base to the point that it negates the edge.

2013 was a much better year for Republicans than it was now. What a hypothetical Dem operative wants to see is Northam up by like 9. That'd be somewhere near the national margin the Dems need to be playing with in order to have a home run midterm like some metric indicate.

Gillespie improving on Cuccinelli's margin in the shift in landscape would be nothing less than miraculous. This election (and how exactly Guadagno falls to Murphy) should give folks in the RNC a good idea whether to run on a national anti-sanctuary message in 2018.

Maybe the trick for Paul Ryan is to move a bit to the right on cultural issues.

You sound like a democrat after Ossoff lost.

Not really. Ossoff losing was bad for the Dems for the same reasons a 2 point Northam win or 10 point Murphy win would be bad for the Dems: a lack of ability to improve on Hillary's numbers in an election they lost overall, despite muh wave and the muh Hillary horrible candidate coping mechanism.

[Vega]

No matter how many times we talk about the way Virginia reports the results, it's not going to stop the hand wringing lol. I look forward to all the doom prophecies when Gillespie is ahead with 1% in.

It does start to effect even a knowledgeable watcher when like 75% of the vote is in and the Republican has a spread of 3%. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

No matter how many times we talk about the way Virginia reports the results, it's not going to stop the hand wringing lol. I look forward to all the doom prophecies when Gillespie is ahead with 1% in.

Overreaction on Atlas is probably the safest bet you could place in this (or any) election.

[Skill and Chance]

Worth remembering tomorrow night:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And in 2014, Gillespie lost his lead when 92% of the precincts were reporting.

So McAuliffe 2013 took the lead with 76% reporting, Clinton 2016 took the lead with 83% reporting (with a 5.4% final margin!), Warner 2014 took the lead at 92% reporting, and Herring 2013 took the lead in a recount.

Anyone know when Obama 2012 (3.9% final margin) took the lead?  Probably earlier than Clinton and McAuliffe because less purely dependent on NOVA?

[BudgieForce]

Northam by 2 is a pretty good result for Republicans - it shows that hard-on-immigration campaigns energize the GOP base but won't significantly alienate the Dem base to the point that it negates the edge.

2013 was a much better year for Republicans than it was now. What a hypothetical Dem operative wants to see is Northam up by like 9. That'd be somewhere near the national margin the Dems need to be playing with in order to have a home run midterm like some metric indicate.

Gillespie improving on Cuccinelli's margin in the shift in landscape would be nothing less than miraculous. This election (and how exactly Guadagno falls to Murphy) should give folks in the RNC a good idea whether to run on a national anti-sanctuary message in 2018.

Maybe the trick for Paul Ryan is to move a bit to the right on cultural issues.

You sound like a democrat after Ossoff lost.

Not really. Ossoff losing was bad for the Dems for the same reasons a 2 point Northam win or 10 point Murphy win would be bad for the Dems: a lack of ability to improve on Hillary's numbers in an election they lost overall, despite muh wave and the muh Hillary horrible candidate coping mechanism.

I think your overthinking it. Hillary was a good fit for NJ and Tim Kaine helped her margin in VA. Phil Murphy has the charisma of a card board box and the last 3 VA governors races have been competitive. Tomorrow nights performance doesn't have to mean much about whether there will or wont be a wave next year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Northam by 2 is a pretty good result for Republicans - it shows that hard-on-immigration campaigns energize the GOP base but won't significantly alienate the Dem base to the point that it negates the edge.

2013 was a much better year for Republicans than it was now. What a hypothetical Dem operative wants to see is Northam up by like 9. That'd be somewhere near the national margin the Dems need to be playing with in order to have a home run midterm like some metric indicate.

Gillespie improving on Cuccinelli's margin in the shift in landscape would be nothing less than miraculous. This election (and how exactly Guadagno falls to Murphy) should give folks in the RNC a good idea whether to run on a national anti-sanctuary message in 2018.

Maybe the trick for Paul Ryan is to move a bit to the right on cultural issues.

You sound like a democrat after Ossoff lost.

Not really. Ossoff losing was bad for the Dems for the same reasons a 2 point Northam win or 10 point Murphy win would be bad for the Dems: a lack of ability to improve on Hillary's numbers in an election they lost overall, despite muh wave and the muh Hillary horrible candidate coping mechanism.

I think your overthinking it. Hillary was a good fit for NJ and Tim Kaine helped her margin in VA. Phil Murphy has the charisma of a card board box and the last 3 VA governors races have been competitive. Tomorrow nights performance doesn't have to mean much about whether there will or wont be a wave next year.

Harry Enten of 538 has pointed out several times that off-year gubernatorial elections aren't particularly predictive of subsequent Congressional results.  Writing recently about Virginia specifically:

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[MT Treasurer]

No matter how many times we talk about the way Virginia reports the results, it's not going to stop the hand wringing lol. I look forward to all the doom prophecies when Gillespie is ahead with 1% in.

It does start to effect even a knowledgeable watcher when like 75% of the vote is in and the Republican has a spread of 3%. 

I remember Newt Gingrich and even John King and Anderson Cooper in 2014 saying that Gillespie still had a chance even after Warner had taken the lead, lol. Either way, you'd think that most pundits would be aware of the counting biases of most states, but apparently not. So yeah, overreactions are basically guaranteed.

Btw: Someone can correct me if I'm wrong here, but I believe NJ also has a Republican counting bias. Don't be surprised if Guadagno is leading in the early count.