VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Virginiá]

As the old thread has reached almost 2,000 posts, I am making this the new one for election day, as we are obviously going to go way over.

Link to old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=255866.0

I will add the links for relevant election pages / results as I find them. If anyone has them, feel free to post them here and I will add to this post.


Election results (non-VA too)

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-general-elections
---
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-jersey-general-elections
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-york-general-elections
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/utah-house-special-election
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/maine-ballot-measure-medicaid-expansion
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/ohio-ballot-measure-cap-drug-costs


Info on HoD races:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=264771.0
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/underneath-it-all-elections-for-the-virginia-house-of-delegates/


And on Miles' DDHQ page you can find a slew of Virginia stuff, including HoD race breakdowns:

https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/author/milescoleman/



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Note on oversized signatures: I really think it is absurd that this is even necessary, but there are some users on this forum who can't seem to keep their signatures at a reasonable height/width, and some who even obnoxiously keep their's as big as possible to annoy people. So here's the deal - if you want to post in any election threads next week, get rid of your huge signatures. Cut it way down to around the size of mine, maybe double it, give or take. Otherwise I will delete your posts, regardless of the content. Just because you can technically enter the code for a huge signature in the sig profile field doesn't entitle you to stretch out everyone's thread page when they are trying to follow election results here and participate in discussion about it.

So keep the signatures short. No exceptions.

[KingSweden]

Ah another thread for

DOOOOOOOOOOMMM

[Deblano]

I predict a tight win for Northam with a possible recount (kinda like what happened with Virginia Senate 2006 or Virginia Senate 2014)

[Hydera]

Not tuesday yet but....

[The Other Castro]

Monmouth will release their final poll tomorrow. Previous poll was G+1. Some tea leaves:

Patrick Murray‏ @PollsterPatrick
Wapo & Roanoke show tightening.  Qpac & Suffolk show widening. "Trend" driven by Rass & TPC being late game entries in the average.

Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Replying to @PollsterPatrick
So you guys have Northam rebounding? 😬 The polls showing tightening are more recent than the ones showing widening.

Patrick Murray‏ @PollsterPatrick
Replying to @NateSilver538
We're still in field, so not clear yet. But bottom line, is it's still adhering to our overall trend that race has always been tight.

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/926851496578297857

So, based on this I would guess that Monmouth will still show a close race, though maybe anything from G+2 to N+2.

[Matty]

What do you think is the biggest reason Northam hasn't been able to use trump's dreadful VA approval ratings to grow a bigger lead?

Who are the gillespie/clinton voters?

[GeorgiaModerate]

What do you think is the biggest reason Northam hasn't been able to use trump's dreadful VA approval ratings to grow a bigger lead?

Who are the gillespie/clinton voters?

I don't know how many G/C voters there will be.  But there were probably plenty of Republicans who sat out the Presidential race or voted for a third party (Johnson got 3% and McMullin 1.4%) that have no problem voting for Gillespie.

[Virginiá]

What do you think is the biggest reason Northam hasn't been able to use trump's dreadful VA approval ratings to grow a bigger lead?

Gubernatorial elections already provide candidates with a way to escape some of the wrath voters have for the party that controls the White House/Congress, and it doesn't help the opposition party if their candidate is not a good campaigner to begin with. Northam isn't really exciting and he's not the best candidate, either. I think that may be one of the more simpler reasons for his underwhelming campaign.

Ideally a wave should be able to carry these people in anyway, and that may be what happens, but I think this is more likely to happen with offices that aren't as high-profile as the Governors race. Everyone knows these two candidates, as opposed to House, legislative or various row office candidates.

[The Other Castro]

The tweets from the Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray also made me think. What would we see if we looked at only the changes in margins of recent pollsters? Excluding partisan polls (assuming I hopefully did all these numbers correctly), the most recent pollsters with relatively recent previous polls to display a change were: Emerson, Roanoke, Suffolk, WashPost, Quinnipiac, CNU, and Fox. Changes were:

Emerson: Gillespie +2 (Northam +5 ---> Northam +3)
Roanoke: Gillespie +6 (Northam +6 ---> Tied)
Suffolk: Northam +4 (Tied ---> Northam +4)
WashPost: Gillespie +7 (Northam +13 ---> Northam +5)
Quinnipiac: Northam +3 (Northam +14 ---> Northam +17)
CNU: Northam +3 (Northam +4 ---> Northam +7)
Fox: Northam +3 (Northam +3 ---> Northam +7)

So, what do we see when we take out the newcomer pollsters to this race like Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and The Polling Company? An average of (G+2 / 7 polls) = G+0.29 average trend, or what we would consider in poll trends as virtually negligible. Now, is this a fair way of calculating poll trends? Not exactly, but it does help show what the changes are from poll to poll when you ignore new entrants that potentially muddy the average and cast false trends. Perhaps Gillespie has been tightening the race, or perhaps it has been mostly static.

[Classic Conservative]

Fhtagn is a Stein/Gillespie voter.

[heatcharger]

Fhtagn is a Stein/Gillespie voter.

[KingSweden]

Fhtagn is a Stein/Gillespie voter.

That’s a... hmm.

[Virginiá]

fhtagn vote Northam if only because it helps ensures neutral redistricting

Otherwise Gillespie and Republicans are no doubt planning to rig the maps in 2021 but also no doubt to gerrymander the state Senate map as soon as Gillespie worms his way into office next year (if he wins).

[Gass3268]

fhtagn vote Northam if only because it helps ensures neutral redistricting

Otherwise Gillespie and Republicans are no doubt planning to rig the maps in 2021 but also no doubt to gerrymander the state Senate map as soon as Gillespie worms his way into office next year (if he wins).

Democrats would get one more shot in 2019 to win back the state senate.

[Oryxslayer]

fhtagn vote Northam if only because it helps ensures neutral redistricting

Otherwise Gillespie and Republicans are no doubt planning to rig the maps in 2021 but also no doubt to gerrymander the state Senate map as soon as Gillespie worms his way into office next year (if he wins).

Democrats would get one more shot in 2019 to win back the state senate.

They'd gerrymander it before 2019

Not all states allow off-year redistricting (besides court mandated cases) - is VA one of those?

[Gass3268]

fhtagn vote Northam if only because it helps ensures neutral redistricting

Otherwise Gillespie and Republicans are no doubt planning to rig the maps in 2021 but also no doubt to gerrymander the state Senate map as soon as Gillespie worms his way into office next year (if he wins).

Democrats would get one more shot in 2019 to win back the state senate.

They'd gerrymander it before 2019

Not all states allow off-year redistricting (besides court mandated cases) - is VA one of those?

I see no reason why they wouldn't shore up Dick black's and Glenn Sturtevant's districts. I certainly would if I were them

Some state constitutions prohibit it.

[Virginiá]

Not all states allow off-year redistricting (besides court mandated cases) - is VA one of those?

McAuliffe has already vetoed some HoD map tweaks. I don't for sure if Virginia's constitution prohibits it, but they seem to think it is ok.

[Anna Komnene]

fhtagn vote Northam if only because it helps ensures neutral redistricting

Otherwise Gillespie and Republicans are no doubt planning to rig the maps in 2021 but also no doubt to gerrymander the state Senate map as soon as Gillespie worms his way into office next year (if he wins).

It's not just redistricting. A democratic governor is pretty much the only thing standing in the way of a full bore social conservative agenda in Virginia. Just take a look at some of the stuff McAuliffe vetoed in the past 4 years. That's what you can expect from a Gillespie governorship.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Is Bagel23 unable to read the first post? I thought he was classier than that.

It looks like a tight race, but it seems like Gillepsie is struggling with rural enthusiasm, so he's going to have to overperform Trump a lot in NOVA.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Virginia, is my signature size ok?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Is this whole Fhtagn thing a joke, or is she actually voting for Gillespie? I thought she was classier than that.

<is very rude to trans people on atlas
<accuses others of losing class

[Mr. Reactionary]

fhtagn vote Northam if only because it helps ensures neutral redistricting

Otherwise Gillespie and Republicans are no doubt planning to rig the maps in 2021 but also no doubt to gerrymander the state Senate map as soon as Gillespie worms his way into office next year (if he wins).

It's not just redistricting. A democratic governor is pretty much the only thing standing in the way of a full bore social conservative agenda in Virginia. Just take a look at some of the stuff McAuliffe vetoed in the past 4 years. That's what you can expect from a Gillespie governorship.

Stupid McAuliffe vetoed the bill legalizing switchblades this year. Stupid McAuliffe.

[Leinad]

Is this whole Fhtagn thing a joke, or is she actually voting for Gillespie? I thought she was classier than that.

<is very rude to trans people on atlas
<accuses others of losing class

Yes, not to mention

<literally makes an opinion of someone based on one vote

lololol

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

5-poll average after Emerson release:

Emerson: N+3
Siena: N+3
Trafalgar: N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie

Average: N+2.4

[Virginiá]

Virginia, is my signature size ok?

Personally I would prefer it if you ditched one or two of the images but I'm not trying to do some strict enforcement here. It was mainly directed at people like Sparky and Bagel, where the signature is very obviously too big. The signature space is not supposed to be a whole new profile page under every post.

Is this whole Fhtagn thing a joke, or is she actually voting for Gillespie? I thought she was classier than that.

Doesn't matter. Change your signature.