VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Frodo]

If all goes well for Republicans this Tuesday, and they redistrict the Virginia Senate before elections on 2019, the most optimum partisan breakdown for them in that chamber is likely a 25:15 majority. 

It can't get any larger than that given how closely divided this state is. 

[Sestak]

What do you think is the biggest reason Northam hasn't been able to use trump's dreadful VA approval ratings to grow a bigger lead?

Who are the gillespie/clinton voters?

I'd guess the same type of people who are Clinton/Karen Handel voters?

[Keep cool-idge]

Plus 2 Gillespie is what I think it will show.
Also any word on a new Fox News poll?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The lastest version of this from Cinyc, made for last year's elections.

Virginia
State PVI:


Two Virginia counties and three independent cities are state PVI bellwethers.  Suburban Washington D.C. Loudoun County is by far the largest of the 5, and had the least trend.  Rural Nelson County, in between Charlottesville and Lynchburg in central Virginia, is the other county on the list.  The three independent cities are west-central Staunton, southwestern Radford and northern Virginia's Winchester.   Winchester city also only had a slight trend; the trend in the other three municipalities was moderate.

National PVI:


Because Virginia's PVI is even, Loudoun County, Nelson County and Radford city are also national PVI bellwethers.  Again, Loudoun County trended the least of the three.

Note that my state maps and dataset include both Bedford County and Bedford city.  Bedford city was dissolved at some point after the 2012 election.  The combined city and county have a state and national PVI of R+22.  (Bedford City was R+8; Bedford County was R+23).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Final Wason Center (CNU) tracking poll:

Northam 51
Gillespie 45
Hyra 2

http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/northam-holds-6-point-lead-over-gillespie-51-45-as-independents-and-moderates-break-for-democrat/

The previous poll (Oct 27) was 50-43 Northam.

[Fudotei]

Eh, if the data supports Northam by 2, then the reasonable guess is Northam by 2.

Northam by 2 is still a pretty solid run considering that we should be seeing backlash for Republicans eventually given approval ratings. The economy's good, but it's hard to tie that to Gillespie and tying anything to Trump is difficult.

Put it this way: Cuccinelli lost by 2.5%. If Gillespie can keep that margin after a much less friendly national environment and an general boost in the Dem electorate, 2018 probably won't be as brutal as some people are expecting.

If Gillespie manages to improve on 2.5% or even win the election outright, all hell breaks loose. No way an election held Nov 2017 should be better or even comparable for a Republican compared to Nov 2013.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Q poll

Northam 51
Gillespie 42
Hyra 3

Their previous poll was 53-36 Northam.

[Gass3268]

5-poll average after Emerson release:

Emerson: N+3
Siena: N+3
Trafalgar: N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie

Average: N+2.4

5-poll average after Quinnipiac release:

Quinnipiac: N+9
CNU: N+6
Emerson: N+3
Siena: N+3
Trafalgar: N+1

Average: N+4.4

[Mr.Phips]

It looks like Northam has turned back up just in the nick of time.

[Brittain33]

We haven't gotten a final poll from The Polling Company yet, though.

[Oryxslayer]

We haven't gotten a final poll from The Polling Company yet, though.

Same with Monmouth.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

We haven't gotten a final poll from The Polling Company yet, though.

Same with Monmouth.

Don’t forget Trafalgar and Optimus!

[GeorgiaModerate]

We haven't gotten a final poll from The Polling Company yet, though.

Same with Monmouth.

Don’t forget Trafalgar and Optimus!

I've also been wondering if Hampton will have a final poll.

[Podgy the Bear]

I do think that the last couple of weeks put a scare in the Northam campaign and to get the base out to vote tomorrow.  It will be close, but I think he'll pull it out.

[Gass3268]

Politico: Some grumbling from conservatives on Gillespie shunning Trump

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Fox poll

LV:

Northam 48 (-1)
Gillespie 43 (+1)
Hyra 2

RV:

Northam 45 (nc)
Gillespie 41 (-1)
Hyra 3

[Gass3268]

New Fox poll

LV:

Northam 48 (-1)
Gillespie 43 (+1)
Hyra 2

RV:

Northam 45 (nc)
Gillespie 41 (-1)
Hyra 3

More and more polls are showing Northam voters more excited to vote.

[BudgieForce]

It'd be nice if democrats finally won something. Its getting a little demoralizing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth

Northam 47 (nc)
Gillespie 45 (-3)
Hyra 3

[DFL]

Monmouth

Northam 47 (nc)
Gillespie 45 (-3)
Hyra 3

You must be logged in to read this quote.

-Monmouth

What exactly is the central region of Virginia like in terms of the rural/urban divide and electorate?

[SoLongAtlas]

Monmouth

Northam 47 (nc)
Gillespie 45 (-3)
Hyra 3

You must be logged in to read this quote.

-Monmouth

What exactly is the central region of Virginia like in terms of the rural/urban divide and electorate?

Huge. Almost like two different worlds. A little bit more akin to NoVA re Midlothian and suburbs of Richmond and the same for Cville but other than that, it's rural everywhere in the Piedmont region and largely GOP leading or trending.

For a visual: https://www.google.com/maps/@37.4778586,-78.3691333,162645m/data=!3m1!1e3

Almost no cities and several small towns that lean GOP. A ton of trees and farms. It's peaceful there, growing Piedmont wine and tourism, craft beer scene. Some industry but largely retail, farming, trucking, and some office jobs (Richmond and Cville and some in Lynchburg), but overall a lot of people from the Piedmont (myself included) have come to NoVA for jobs. Piedmont has massive brain drain from HS and UVA/Richmond kids leaving the area. It also features a lot of folks retiring to the farm country from New England, NY/NJ, which residents there absolutely hate but it's not as bad as it once was. When I was in HS, I overheard a convo saying that "they needed jobs, but no those Yankee jobs coming down here."

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Below are the margins for the 2013 VA AG race at various % of polls reported which was decided by just 906 votes. This might give some idea of where ideally both candidates will want to be at margin wise throughout the night. Republican candidates will need to obv beat these margins and probably do so by at least a couple % points to feel secure; while Democrats can largely be content to match 2013 margins.

7% in Obenshain by 15%
9% in Obenshain by 15.8%
33% in Obenshain by 9.2%
61% in Obenshain by 6%
65% in Obenshain by 7%
90% in Obenshain by 2.1%
91% in Obenshain by 2.08%
93% in Obenshain by 2%
95% in Obenshain by 1.3%
97% in Obenshain by 1%
98% in Obenshain by 1.2%
99% in Obenshain by 0.8%

[alomas]

In 2013 and 2014 Rs overperformed their polls. It will be a very interesting night. Surely many Reps will jump when Gillespie pulled out an early lead only to see it cut as the night goes on. The question it, will the advantage be enough.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Updated Average:

Monmouth: N+2
Fox: N+5
Quinnipiac: N+9
CNU: N+6
Emerson: N+3

Average: N+5.0

Northam can now withstand the entire 2013 polling error. Congrats to Gov. Northam.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Just saw the change research and polling Company releases. These release dates are so close together that I've decided to just have the average reflect all polls released today:

Polling Company: N+1
Change Research: N+6
Monmouth: N+2
Fox: N+5
Quinnipiac: N+9
CNU: N+6

Average: N+4.8

Northam still in an excellent position.