VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I post one comment with some sarcasm and everyone loses their sh**t. Sad!

[Alabama_Indy10]

Well, get used to it Republicans.  This is what you get when you make a deal with the devil.

What?! Republicans have won nearly every other special election since Trump took office.

They have held open seats, but haven't made any gains.

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

The New Jersey Governor is.

Republicans were going to lose New Jersey regardless.

No, no, no. You're trying to have it both ways. How are we counting? Is it "flipping seats" or is it "winning races you're not favoured to win". You can't flip between metrics from case to case unless you're an idiot hack.

It's winning races. Period.

[Gustaf]

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

They might win the house of delegates, which they haven't done in 20 years.

Republicans can try to spin this, but the down the ballot numbers here are awful.

There is really no way to spin this result. This is a disaster for Republicans. This many incumbent lawmakers losing in a single election, this many seats, it just doesn't happen. At least not in Virginia. I stated above that the last time this many seats flipped at once was 1895. Republicans can't spin this.

Are the next set of district lines going to be enacted before the next gubernatorial election in 2021, or will the next governor get to oversee that?

It depends if Democrats can work some magic and get a Republican or two to go against their party. But if not, Democrats will either need to win the state Senate in 2019, and/or win the gubernatorial race in 2021, or hold the HoD.

Either way it's looking good that next redistricting will see at least neutral maps across the board.

JFern, no.

Berniecrats and Centrists won side by side, why can't you shut up and enjoy a victory?

It's amazing how negative this guy is. It's like all he can see in life.

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

"all you said" doesn't make any sense. It's just spin.

[Virginiá]

@Bagel23: That signature is still way too big

[TheSaint250]

JFern, no.

Berniecrats and Centrists won side by side, why can't you shut up and enjoy a victory?

3 out of 4 Our-Revolution candidates won in NJ, one beat the GOP Whip. Our-Revolution candidates went 7 for 7 in Somerville, Mass. Krasner is the new DA, multiple DSA folks won.

And Northan & Murphy both won comfortably. Good night for Democrats, for centrists & progressives. Bad night for Trump & conservatives. Nothing to be an unhappy about for anyone.

Interesting how the "progressive" Murphy underperformed from 2016 while the "centrist" Northam overperformed.

[Gustaf]

Well, get used to it Republicans.  This is what you get when you make a deal with the devil.

What?! Republicans have won nearly every other special election since Trump took office.

They have held open seats, but haven't made any gains.

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

The New Jersey Governor is.

Republicans were going to lose New Jersey regardless.

No, no, no. You're trying to have it both ways. How are we counting? Is it "flipping seats" or is it "winning races you're not favoured to win". You can't flip between metrics from case to case unless you're an idiot hack.

It's winning races. Period.

So, then Democrats just won a lot didn't they? Like the New Jersey gubernatorial race. The Virginia one. The New York mayoral one.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

They might win the house of delegates, which they haven't done in 20 years.

Republicans can try to spin this, but the down the ballot numbers here are awful.

There is really no way to spin this result. This is a disaster for Republicans. This many incumbent lawmakers losing in a single election, this many seats, it just doesn't happen. At least not in Virginia. I stated above that the last time this many seats flipped at once was 1895. Republicans can't spin this.

Are the next set of district lines going to be enacted before the next gubernatorial election in 2021, or will the next governor get to oversee that?

It depends if Democrats can work some magic and get a Republican or two to go against their party. But if not, Democrats will either need to win the state Senate in 2019, and/or win the gubernatorial race in 2021, or hold the HoD.

Either way it's looking good that next redistricting will see at least neutral maps across the board.

JFern, no.

Berniecrats and Centrists won side by side, why can't you shut up and enjoy a victory?

It's amazing how negative this guy is. It's like all he can see in life.

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

"all you said" doesn't make any sense. It's just spin.

What doesn't make sense about that?

[Holmes]

I post one comment with some sarcasm and everyone loses their sh**t. Sad!

You forgot to close your sarcasm tag.

[/sarcasm]

[Gustaf]

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

They might win the house of delegates, which they haven't done in 20 years.

Republicans can try to spin this, but the down the ballot numbers here are awful.

There is really no way to spin this result. This is a disaster for Republicans. This many incumbent lawmakers losing in a single election, this many seats, it just doesn't happen. At least not in Virginia. I stated above that the last time this many seats flipped at once was 1895. Republicans can't spin this.

Are the next set of district lines going to be enacted before the next gubernatorial election in 2021, or will the next governor get to oversee that?

It depends if Democrats can work some magic and get a Republican or two to go against their party. But if not, Democrats will either need to win the state Senate in 2019, and/or win the gubernatorial race in 2021, or hold the HoD.

Either way it's looking good that next redistricting will see at least neutral maps across the board.

JFern, no.

Berniecrats and Centrists won side by side, why can't you shut up and enjoy a victory?

It's amazing how negative this guy is. It's like all he can see in life.

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

"all you said" doesn't make any sense. It's just spin.

What doesn't make sense about that?

All of it?

[Bojack Horseman]

Gillespie seems fairly gracious in his concession speech, so good on him for that.

[Oryxslayer]

Someone in here wanted a HoD map. Do not share this, I am using some elses map - it is simply to convey data quickly.

Blue is dem, Red is Rep, light blue is dem pickup, white is still outstanding, and purple is heading to a recount.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I post one comment with some sarcasm and everyone loses their sh**t. Sad!

Dumb comment provokes a lot of responses calling it dumb. What a surprise!

[MAINEiac4434]

I post one comment with some sarcasm and everyone loses their sh**t. Sad!

Sarcasm defense. Classic.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Well, get used to it Republicans.  This is what you get when you make a deal with the devil.

What?! Republicans have won nearly every other special election since Trump took office.

They have held open seats, but haven't made any gains.

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

The New Jersey Governor is.

Republicans were going to lose New Jersey regardless.

No, no, no. You're trying to have it both ways. How are we counting? Is it "flipping seats" or is it "winning races you're not favoured to win". You can't flip between metrics from case to case unless you're an idiot hack.

It's winning races. Period.

So, then Democrats just won a lot didn't they? Like the New Jersey gubernatorial race. The Virginia one. The New York mayoral one.

Don't forget we might win two legislative chambers and GOP lost there supermajority in GA.

[Virginiá]

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Well, get used to it Republicans.  This is what you get when you make a deal with the devil.

What?! Republicans have won nearly every other special election since Trump took office.

They have held open seats, but haven't made any gains.

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

The New Jersey Governor is.

Republicans were going to lose New Jersey regardless.

No, no, no. You're trying to have it both ways. How are we counting? Is it "flipping seats" or is it "winning races you're not favoured to win". You can't flip between metrics from case to case unless you're an idiot hack.

It's winning races. Period.

So, then Democrats just won a lot didn't they? Like the New Jersey gubernatorial race. The Virginia one. The New York mayoral one.

No kidding.. I can give credit where it is due.. Democrats won big tonight. Just as Republicans won in GA 6th, KS 4th, MT-AL, SC 5th, and UT 3rd.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

There is no denying that I am enthused right now, but I also don't want to put down Republicans too much right now. Good job to all of you for fighting hard campaigns, and despite my full backing of democrats in these elections tonight, I really enjoyed listening to the debates, and hearing both sides of the issue. And I will admit, there are many things that I agree with y'all on, and going forward, regardless of necessity, I hope democrats will choose to work in a bipartisan manner with their fellow countrymen, and learn some darn compromise already. We sure could use it.

Thanks, and good job on a hard fight.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Whose sock are you, friend?

[Gustaf]

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb hick is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Don't get too cocky, Moore could very well lose.

[Yank2133]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

You guys are going to lose the house next year.

[Cactus Jack]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Mods, please bunker-bust.

[Kamala]

Northam got 70k+1 votes in Prince William County.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I don't know if this would qualify as #analysis or a hot take, but for the House of Delegates raceI kind of think the fierce populist or triangulating centrist dichotomy is a false one. I suspect the HoD results are more reflective of a referendum on the President and nothing more. Voters would've voted for a potato with a (D) next to it in this environment. Berniecrat or Hillarycrat, they all dominate in waves.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Lol the difference here is that Alabama isn't a swing state and that we are all fully expecting Bible thumper Roy Moore to win.