VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Skill and Chance]

Are the next set of district lines going to be enacted before the next gubernatorial election in 2021, or will the next governor get to oversee that?

Northam is now assured of being able to block the state legislative lines, but if the GOP controls one chamber of the legislature, they can punt the Congressional lines to after the 2021 elections.  If Democrats pick up the State Senate in 2019 (which will be fanatically easier than what they accomplished in the HoD tonight), it is not up again until 2023, so they can still block a Republican map in 2022 even if there is a GOP governor and GOP HoD.  So the possible outcomes are:

1. Dems hold/flip HoD pending recounts and flip State Senate in 2019, Dem trifecta draws all maps in 2021.
 
2.  GOP holds/flips back HoD in 2019, GOP sweep statewide in 2021: court map for state legislature, GOP gerrymander of congress, potential GOP gerrymander of legislature as well after 2021 win, although the GOP LG blocked this last decade.  

3. Dems flip state senate outright with at least 21 seats in 2019, but GOP holds/flips back HoD, ensures court maps for both state legislature and congress.

4. Dems flip one state senate seat for a 20-20 tie, Republicans hold/flip back HoD, Dem LG and GOP GOV wins in 2021: ensures court maps for both state legislature and congress.

5. Dems flip one state senate seat for a 20-20 tie, Republicans hold/flip back HoD, GOP LG and GOV win in 2021: court map for state legislature, GOP gerrymander of congress

6. Dems flip state senate at least 20-20 in 2019, GOP holds/flips back HoD, but Dems sweep statewide in 2021: court map of state legislature, Dem gerrymander for congress

[The Dowager Mod]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Mods, please bunker-bust.

Working on it....

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Better?

[Alabama_Indy10]

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb hick is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

Are either of those statements false?

[Maxwell]

lol

Thanks MS-13 for your bounty of newly voting gangsters!

[MAINEiac4434]

JFern, no.

Berniecrats and Centrists won side by side, why can't you shut up and enjoy a victory?

3 out of 4 Our-Revolution candidates won in NJ, one beat the GOP Whip. Our-Revolution candidates went 7 for 7 in Somerville, Mass. Krasner is the new DA, multiple DSA folks won.

And Northan & Murphy both won comfortably. Good night for Democrats, for centrists & progressives. Bad night for Trump & conservatives. Nothing to be an unhappy about for anyone.

Interesting how the "progressive" Murphy underperformed from 2016 while the "centrist" Northam overperformed.

They're actually both in line with their polling averages (the high end for Northam, obvs).

[Gass3268]

Haha, good job Scott Walker! Going 0-2 as the head of the RGA!

[Roronoa D. Law]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Lol the difference here is that Alabama isn't a swing state and that we are all fully expecting Bible thumper Roy Moore to win.

It was never really on the radar either. A Dem win in AL is if Jones comes in single digits because if it single digits in AL that mean GA is-.

[Holmes]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Who cares once the new VA state legislature starts passing legislation and Northam signs it all?

[DrScholl]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Holding a safe seat like Alabama isn't exactly impressive. "Republican wins Alabama" is not exactly good headline material.

[Cactus Jack]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Mods, please bunker-bust.

Working on it....

Thank you.

[Gustaf]

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb hick is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

Are either of those statements false?

No, obviously not so I guess you didn't understand how you were being stupid. Maybe you should read it again and try to think better.

[MAINEiac4434]

Haha, good job Scott Walker! Going 0-2 as the head of the RGA!

And Dan Malloy going out with a bang.

[Oryxslayer]

Someone in here wanted a HoD map. Do not share this, I am using some elses map - it is simply to convey data quickly.

Blue is dem, Red is Rep, light blue is dem pickup, white is still outstanding, and purple is heading to a recount.

Districts 27, 68, and 40 - the white one inNOVA and the white ones in the Richmond Suburbs are heading to recounts. This puts five districts on route to recounts, the previous 2 and  28 + 94.

84 and 85 are the only outstanding races -  located in Virginia Beach. Both could avoid a recount, but 85 could head there. Dems are currently ahead in 85, republicans in 84.

[Young Conservative]

This is depressing.

[fluffypanther19]

alex20: a sad little republican troll

[Virginiá]

@Bagel23: Remove the Sinema image (or an equivalent amount of space) and then, yes.

[MAINEiac4434]

This is depressing.

Man this isn't a fraction of what we felt 364 nights ago.

[Cactus Jack]

alex20: a sad SAD! little republican troll

Fixed for you.

[Doimper]

Someone in here wanted a HoD map. Do not share this, I am using some elses map - it is simply to convey data quickly.

Blue is dem, Red is Rep, light blue is dem pickup, white is still outstanding, and purple is heading to a recount.

Fantastic, thanks!

[Alabama_Indy10]

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb hick is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

Are either of those statements false?

No, obviously not so I guess you didn't understand how you were being stupid. Maybe you should read it again and try to think better.

Okay.. I'm being stupid by saying the truth.. Makes a whole lot of sense doesn't it?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Who cares once the new VA state legislature starts passing legislation and Northam signs it all?

R's still control the Senate (21-19) so that won't happen for the next two years.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, stop harassing Republicans here, we did not like it when it happened to us, so let's not be nearly as low. Be gracious and thankful. For all Republican non trolls on here (which is like 85% of all Republicans here) I apologize for this behavior, it is not in the true spirit of the democratic party, neither are the alt-leftie/y "purists".

[Gustaf]

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

Are either of those statements false?

No, obviously not so I guess you didn't understand how you were being stupid. Maybe you should read it again and try to think better.

Okay.. I'm being stupid by saying the truth.. Makes a whole lot of sense doesn't it?

Well, see there are many truthful statements that constitute dumb answers. For example, if you're doing a test and the question is "what is 1+1" and your answer is "the capital of Australia is Canberra" you'd look like an idiot even though your answer is a true statement. And if someone gently hinted that you should rethink why you're wrong and you insisted on doubling down you'd look even more incorrect. But sure, keep doing it.

[Gass3268]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Who cares once the new VA state legislature starts passing legislation and Northam signs it all?

R's still control the Senate (21-19) so that won't happen for the next two years.

If the Democrats get the HoD, they are going to do everything to get one in the Senate to flip.