VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Alabama_Indy10]

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb hick is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

Are either of those statements false?

No, obviously not so I guess you didn't understand how you were being stupid. Maybe you should read it again and try to think better.

Okay.. I'm being stupid by saying the truth.. Makes a whole lot of sense doesn't it?

Well, see there are many truthful statements that constitute dumb answers. For example, if you're doing a test and the question is "what is 1+1" and your answer is "the capital of Australia is Canberra" you'd look like an idiot even though your answer is a true statement. And if someone gently hinted that you should rethink why you're being dumb and you insisted on doubling down you'd look even dumber. But sure, keep doing it.

Brilliant comparison man

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/928111976676511745/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2F2017-election-live-coverage-results%2F

^^^ This is what should REALLY scare the GOP ^^^

[Alex20]

I'm sorry, I admit that the triumphalist airs bother me, congratulations! However, I cannot hide my total and absolute displeasure for tonight

[MAINEiac4434]

Live shot of GOP HQ:

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Who cares once the new VA state legislature starts passing legislation and Northam signs it all?

R's still control the Senate (21-19) so that won't happen for the next two years.

If the Democrats get the HoD, they are going to do everything to get one in the Senate to flip.

I doubt it. If the angle is to coax Republican senators in light-blue areas to vote with Democrats, I don't think that will ever work in the near future. We're so polarized that doing so means you lose the support of your base while the other side is still going to prefer a person from their own side. I'm very skeptical that the D's can exert a lot of leverage here.

[fluffypanther19]

alex20: a sad SAD! little republican troll

Fixed for you.

thank you

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/928111976676511745/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2F2017-election-live-coverage-results%2F

^^^ This is what should REALLY scare the GOP ^^^

It's almost as if nobody under the age of 30 cares about confederate monuments and went to school with enough Hispanic/non-white people to know that MS-13 is not a threat to them.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/928111976676511745/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2F2017-election-live-coverage-results%2F

^^^ This is what should REALLY scare the GOP ^^^

Remember when Gen Zers were supposed to be the future for Republicans?

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/928111976676511745/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2F2017-election-live-coverage-results%2F

^^^ This is what should REALLY scare the GOP ^^^

It's almost as if nobody under the age of 30 cares about confederate monuments and went to school with enough Hispanic/non-white people to know that MS-13 is not a threat to them.

Or maybe they want the monuments taken down.

[MAINEiac4434]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/928111976676511745/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2F2017-election-live-coverage-results%2F

^^^ This is what should REALLY scare the GOP ^^^

It's almost as if nobody under the age of 30 cares about confederate monuments and went to school with enough Hispanic/non-white people to know that MS-13 is not a threat to them.

And know one or two trans people and are totally okay with them using the bathroom of their choice.

[Gass3268]

It's a tie!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is where the night appears to be ending for HoD in VA. Will give another update in the morning if anything comes in overnight.

R 47
D 47 (Net: D + 13)

51 needed for majority

Districts called(D):
13, 10, 32, 2, 50, 34, 87, 93, 51, 31, 73, 42, 12, 67, 72, 21

Districts Called (R): 62, 100, 28, 26, 33, 83

Undecided: 27 (recount likely), 40 (recount likely), 68 (recount likely), 84, 85, 94 (recount likely)

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/928111976676511745/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2F2017-election-live-coverage-results%2F

^^^ This is what should REALLY scare the GOP ^^^

I mean, I can do without the memes, but I'd appreciate some socialism.

(Thankfully, the new HoD Democrats provide plenty of it.)

[Alex20]

^^^ This is what should REALLY scare the GOP ^^^

It's almost as if nobody under the age of 30 cares about confederate monuments and went to school with enough Hispanic/non-white people to know that MS-13 is not a threat to them.

Environments change, in Europe the right is pushed by young people. It could happen the same here

[Young Conservative]

I am disappointed, but not surprised, that "THE GOP IS DOOMED AND DEAD FOREVER" has already become the mantra of many on Atlas.

[heatcharger]

I mean, I can do without the memes, but I'd appreciate some socialism.

(Thankfully, the new HoD Democrats provide plenty of it.)

No they don't... one dude doesn't represent the new caucus. Carter will be brought to heel once he's reminded he has to win this seat again every two years.

[fluffypanther19]

I am disappointed, but not surprised, that "THE GOP IS DOOMED AND DEAD FOREVER" has already become the mantra of many on Atlas.

yeah, I wouldn't go that far, but the GOP is in some serious trouble for sure

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/928111976676511745/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2F2017-election-live-coverage-results%2F

^^^ This is what should REALLY scare the GOP ^^^

Remember when Gen Zers were supposed to be the future for Republicans?

Trump fixed whatever GOP trend was emerging from them.

God bless him!

[Alex20]

I am disappointed, but not surprised, that "THE GOP IS DOOMED AND DEAD FOREVER" has already become the mantra of many on Atlas.

That's a totally absurd myth, with seeing the voters of le pen and afd crumbles

[Holmes]

I am disappointed, but not surprised, that "THE GOP IS DOOMED AND DEAD FOREVER" has already become the mantra of many on Atlas.

Just 7 hours ago, Northam was doomed.

[Nyvin]

This is where the night appears to be ending for HoD in VA. Will give another update in the morning if anything comes in overnight.

R 47
D 47 (Net: D + 13)

51 needed for majority

Districts called(D):
13, 10, 32, 2, 50, 34, 87, 93, 51, 31, 73, 42, 12, 67, 72, 21

Districts Called (R): 62, 100, 28, 26, 33, 83

Undecided: 27 (recount likely), 40 (recount likely), 68 (recount likely), 84, 85, 94 (recount likely)

It's looking like HD-85 went to Dems.

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I have been saying this all week. The panic was all coming from national Democrats.

[Young Conservative]

I am disappointed, but not surprised, that "THE GOP IS DOOMED AND DEAD FOREVER" has already become the mantra of many on Atlas.

Just 7 hours ago, Northam was doomed.

That narrative was just as dumb. He was always the favorite. The margin is somewhat concerning.

[Nyvin]

It looks like HD-85 is going to Dems, and HD-84 is going to GOP....meaning the split currently is:

48D - 48R

Too much suspense IMO...let's get this over with!

[Tartarus Sauce]

This is depressing.

Man this isn't a fraction of what we felt 364 nights ago.