VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Doimper]

I'm done supporting Trump.  He's failed the conservative movement!

sexual assault: okay, as long as he prays about it

losing an off-year election: irredeemable

[Dr. Arch]

I'm proud of you, Virginia, absolute Freedom State.

[Ye We Can]

Taylor's gonna be fine. I think he realizes he cant be asleep at the wheel.

Stuff like this, too:
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/taylor-town-hall-virginia-235289


Frankly, I think if he loses, 50+ other R's are too.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Taylor is too entrenched.

He literally won the seat last year.

But he was a state rep from the area even before, plus a ton of $, moderate persona, ok looking, good name rec, now incumbency, R leaning district, Likely R.

Well in the likely scenario that Kaine vs Stewart is the top ticket combined with an unpopular Trump. Democrats turnout will probably higher next year, Kaine will probably win double digits, and depressed GOP turnout I could see Taylor losing.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Taylor is too entrenched.

He literally won the seat last year.

But he was a state rep from the area even before, plus a ton of $, moderate persona, ok looking, good name rec, now incumbency, R leaning district, Likely R.

Well in the likely scenario that Kaine vs Stewart is the top ticket combined with an unpopular Trump. Democrats turnout will probably higher next year, Kaine will probably win double digits, and depressed GOP turnout I could see Taylor losing.

In this scenario, Tilt R.

[Holmes]

tell that boy Scott Taylor to WATCH HIS BACK.

7 is interesting.  When it was drawn in 2012, it was intended to be the most Safe R in the state after the SWVA seat. 

Really? In a world where VA-06 exists? Weird.

[Gass3268]

Kinda sad that Northam lost his home county.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pretty soon all the working people will soar to the polls and Gillespie will take the lead.

[Gass3268]

Depending on where you're getting your results, it looks like Northam might have won James City County!

[NOVA Green]

Just got off work from my swing shift out here on the West Coast, and wow was definitely not expecting to see these numbers from the VA House of Delegates elections....

I figured the Dems would likely eke out a narrow 3-4% win in the Gubernatorial election, with Lt Gov and AG being likely toss-ups....

Looks like Gillespie ends up only bagging the same 44% of the statewide vote as Trump did in '16, making one wonder:

1.) To what extent did the '16 Pres GE 3rd Party Voters (6% of the electorate) vote Dem for Gov in '17?

2.) To what extent did Trump '17 voters stay home?

3.) How many Trump '16 voters voted for Gillespie in the '17 Gov election?

4.) Turnout among counties--- anyone run comparative turnout numbers by County/City between '16/'17 to see what the numbers show?

5.) All politics are local inherently in these types of off-year statewide elections, but yet local election results do provide key indicators about the "mood of the electorate" to how the Republican Presidency and Congress are performing....

NOVA Green checking in.....

[Badger]

Pretty soon all the working people will soar to the polls and Gillespie will take the lead.

Funny coming from the only Forumite with more trouble holding a job than Bushie.

[Cactus Jack]

Looks like Northam takes it by at least 8.6%.

Say it with me now: THE KING IN THE NORTH!

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

4.) Turnout among counties--- anyone run comparative turnout numbers by County/City between '16/'17 to see what the numbers show?

This is obviously very scant (only for a few counties, in only statewide races, with 2013 as a benchmark instead of 2016) but here is a place to get initial ideas. Looks like turnout follows the trend you'd expect: way up in surburban, D-leaning areas (especially Fairfax environs).

[HAnnA MArin County]

Those Loudoun County numbers though

Barbara Comstock must be in panic mode tonight. How long until she starts throwing the Dear Leader under the bus?

[Crumpets]

One map I'd certainly be curious to see is the 2014-2017 swing map, since Gillespie is a constant factor. Maybe if I have some time tomorrow, I'll make it.

[Gass3268]

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[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Hi this is drunk Scott reporting for duty

Just wanted to clarify the LTG does not break the tie in the HoD; a power-sharing agreement would have to be reached

I'm really happy and sleepy so I think I'm gonna fall asleep now

cheers folks

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hi this is drunk Scott reporting for duty

Just wanted to clarify the LTG does not break the tie in the HoD; a power-sharing agreement would have to be reached

I'm really happy and sleepy so I think I'm gonna fall asleep now

cheers folks

Pretty sensible as far as drunkposts go!

[Beet]

A close reading of the results in Virginia-Gov suggest that the Northam route is not the path forward for national Democrats. While it's true Northam won by a larger margin than Terry McAuliffe, more counties actually swung Republican. This is extremely unusual when the statewide margin is swinging Democratic. Northam was able to win by more than McAuliffe because he racked up big margins in NoVa and in urban areas, like Hillary Clinton.

However, the 2016 election proved that racking up big margins in areas like NoVa do not win you enough states, Congressional districts, or Senate seats nationally. The rural vote remains crucial due to the distribution of constituencies in American politics. Most states do not have nearly two dozen state Assembly seats in semi-urban areas like Prince William county or the Richmond suburbs to win. In order to win the state legislature in most states, you must win rural areas. In these areas, Northam did not do as well as McAuliffe, and he barely did better than Hillary Clinton, running against Gillespie (who is not as good a candidate as Trump for these areas to begin with). IceSpear is right that the results do not bode well for Joe Manchin.

[publicunofficial]

Thoughts:

-Wouldn't be surprised if Barbara Comstock announces her retirement within the month.

-Precious sweet beautiful boy Lee Carter <33333!!!

-Fun Tidbit: Of the 3 Democrats, the one who did best in SWVA was Justin Fairfax.

-Bob Marshall getting blown the f**k out by a trans heavy metal singer who he refused to debate and referred to as "it" is one of the most satisfying victories I'll ever witness.

[Mr. Smith]

...Returns from work

Well this turned out far better than expected, a bit surprised Lynchburg was so close...but disappointed it didn't quite flip to Northam anyway.

While I definitely didn't expect Northam to be anything more than a DECIDED AT MIDNIGHT AT 98% IN kinda thing, him actually surpassing Herring and almost matching Phil Murphy [which eerily enough I did get the margin correct on]...wowza

@PU: And wasn't Fairfax the furthest left campaign at that?  Something something Racist WV and SWVA hicks something something they said.

[Cory]

Bob Marshall getting blown the f**k out by a trans heavy metal singer who he refused to debate and referred to as "it" is one of the most satisfying victories I'll ever witness.

This. Was. Glorious.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Thoughts:

-Wouldn't be surprised if Barbara Comstock announces her retirement within the month.

-Precious sweet beautiful boy Lee Carter <33333!!!

-Fun Tidbit: Of the 3 Democrats, the one who did best in SWVA was Justin Fairfax

-Bob Marshall getting blown the f**k out by a trans heavy metal singer who he refused to debate and referred to as "it" is one of the most satisfying victories I'll ever witness.

To be fair, the difference was negligible. All 3 statewide Dems got blown away in Southwest Virginia by similar margins.

[Devils30]

Even if the House of Delegates is split, the Senate is still GOP so it doesn't change much. Dems will only need 1 seat in each in 2019 and with the GOP likely to stay unpopular, this shouldn't be too hard. Looking like a Democratic map in Virginia after 2020.

[Dr. Arch]

Even if the House of Delegates is split, the Senate is still GOP so it doesn't change much. Dems will only need 1 seat in each in 2019 and with the GOP likely to stay unpopular, this shouldn't be too hard. Looking like a Democratic map in Virginia after 2020.

Yep, per VPAP, it is now D+16. It is now up to likely D friendly absentee ballots and recounts to determine control.

Absolutely outstanding results.