VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Adam Griffin]

[MT Treasurer]

Oh, I firmly stand by it being gone in presidential elections, which was the original context of those very accurate claims.

This is a different story: I also have a recurring narrative about awful NoVA types and how they're custom-made to defect and elect somebody like Gillespie in situations like this.

Ah, I see. Totally agree with you that it's gone for Rs in federal races, I guess we'll find out soon enough if that's the case at the statewide level as well. I have a gut feeling that Ds will do better than expected in the HoD races, though.

And the answer couldn't have been clearer.

[publicunofficial]

Btw I'll happily eat crow on saying Northam was running a terrible campaign. I get to say the sentence "A socialist beat the Majority Whip without any support from the Democratic Party or corporate donors" over and over again until I fall asleep tonight, I don't give a s**t.

[Keep cool-idge]

I apologize for my predictions,I was really wrong I thought for sure that the off year would help Gillespie but it didn’t so I apologize now on to 2018.

[publicunofficial]

Even if the House of Delegates is split, the Senate is still GOP so it doesn't change much. Dems will only need 1 seat in each in 2019 and with the GOP likely to stay unpopular, this shouldn't be too hard. Looking like a Democratic map in Virginia after 2020.

I think provisionals will pull D's ahead in HD-94, putting them at the magic 17.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Depending on where you're getting your results, it looks like Northam might have won James City County!

VPAP seems to have doubled the count for two precincts here (Jamestown B, and Roberts D), owing I think to these precincts containing areas in two different house districts.

[Tender Branson]

The results are about what I expected ... but VA more Dem than I thought and NJ less so.

Still, I would have swallowed a broomstick if Gillepsie won this (or even came close to) ...

[ursulahx]

A close reading of the results in Virginia-Gov suggest that the Northam route is not the path forward for national Democrats. While it's true Northam won by a larger margin than Terry McAuliffe, more counties actually swung Republican. This is extremely unusual when the statewide margin is swinging Democratic. Northam was able to win by more than McAuliffe because he racked up big margins in NoVa and in urban areas, like Hillary Clinton.

However, the 2016 election proved that racking up big margins in areas like NoVa do not win you enough states, Congressional districts, or Senate seats nationally. The rural vote remains crucial due to the distribution of constituencies in American politics. Most states do not have nearly two dozen state Assembly seats in semi-urban areas like Prince William county or the Richmond suburbs to win. In order to win the state legislature in most states, you must win rural areas. In these areas, Northam did not do as well as McAuliffe, and he barely did better than Hillary Clinton, running against Gillespie (who is not as good a candidate as Trump for these areas to begin with). IceSpear is right that the results do not bode well for Joe Manchin.

This post seems to have been lost in the excitement, and is pretty important. Bodes ill not just for Manchin, but presumably also for Heitkamp. Dems may find they need way more help with that impeachment effort than they do even now.

[Fudotei]

Absolutely fantastic result for the Democrats, who have in a single night resolved several issues:

• Can you run moderates like Northam and still benefit from the D anti-Trump wave? Yes, liberals are energized and not exclusionary (at least in Virginia).
• Do Democrats have a chance of winning back the House? Yes, because while Republicans can pull out edges in single-shot special elections, the broad attention of a statewide vote (which all 2018 is)
   brings out the Resistance.
• Can otherwise establishment Republicans go law-and-order to boost white turnout? Not really, SWVA doesn't trust them, destroys sympathy in NoVA, and boosts nonwhite turnout.
• Are the polls accurate? Yes, and sometimes underestimate the Democrat (see 538's First Rule of Polling Error)
• Can initiatives overcome existing Republican resistance? Sometimes (Maine) but not when the position is highly opposed by existing outside interests (Ohio).
• In 2009 Republicans turn the Virginia House from a 55-43 Republican split to a 61-39 R split. The Dems turned 34-66 to 50-50 this year.
• Could 2018 be brutal for Paul Ryan? Yes.

I'm not sure of the "need to swing rural areas to win the legislature" - didn't the Ds just flip this legislature? Gerrymandering creates lots of seats which are hard to reach but can be hit (you concentrate all the D votes in one area to create margins, not blowouts, for R districts). Doesn't that process combined with a D wave create a lot of uneasy Republicans?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I apologize for my predictions,I was really wrong I thought for sure that the off year would help Gillespie but it didn’t so I apologize now on to 2018.

That's gracious of you, but there's really no need to apologize for stating what you honestly thought would happen.  Follow politics long enough and you'll be right sometimes, wrong other times.

[Skill and Chance]

Absolutely fantastic result for the Democrats, who have in a single night resolved several issues:

• Can you run moderates like Northam and still benefit from the D anti-Trump wave? Yes, liberals are energized and not exclusionary (at least in Virginia).
• Do Democrats have a chance of winning back the House? Yes, because while Republicans can pull out edges in single-shot special elections, the broad attention of a statewide vote (which all 2018 is)
   brings out the Resistance.
• Can otherwise establishment Republicans go law-and-order to boost white turnout? Not really, SWVA doesn't trust them, destroys sympathy in NoVA, and boosts nonwhite turnout.
• Are the polls accurate? Yes, and sometimes underestimate the Democrat (see 538's First Rule of Polling Error)
• Can initiatives overcome existing Republican resistance? Sometimes (Maine) but not when the position is highly opposed by existing outside interests (Ohio).
• In 2009 Republicans turn the Virginia House from a 55-43 Republican split to a 61-39 R split. The Dems turned 34-66 to 50-50 this year.
• Could 2018 be brutal for Paul Ryan? Yes.

I'm not sure of the "need to swing rural areas to win the legislature" - didn't the Ds just flip this legislature? Gerrymandering creates lots of seats which are hard to reach but can be hit (you concentrate all the D votes in one area to create margins, not blowouts, for R districts). Doesn't that process combined with a D wave create a lot of uneasy Republicans?

VA HoD could still be 51/49 either way due to recounts.  It's more likely for Dems to get the 51st seat because they trail by only 12 votes in one of their current losses.  The narrowest Dem win is 70ish votes, but there is also another R who is only up 85ish.  Provisionals and ambiguously marked paper ballots have historically been heavily D in VA.  In 2013, Herring went from down ~1000 statewide on election night to up ~150 after provisionals and recanvass to up ~900 after the recount was completed and ambiguously marked ballots were hand-counted.

[Gustaf]

I can't say I buy this rural area thing so much.

1. You can adapt. Saying Manchin is in trouble because Northam didn't do well in SWV makes no sense because Northam ran a campaign suited to winning Virginia, Manchin will run one for West Virginia. It'll obviously be very different.

2. Rural areas aren't necessarily favoured outside of the Senate. If D waves can lead to some un-gerrymandering they will hold much less sway.

3. In the long term, the future of the US in raw population terms is clearly in urban and suburban areas, not rural ones. Clinging to rural West Virginia probably isn't the way to win national majorities over the coming decades.

[Gass3268]

I apologize for my predictions,I was really wrong I thought for sure that the off year would help Gillespie but it didn’t so I apologize now on to 2018.

Props for coming back!

[Don Vito Corleone]

This is freaking amazing lol.

This is what we get for embracing that Orange moron.

You are barely a Republican anyway.

[SoLongAtlas]

Great night. Over an hour's worth of traffic to get back home and conditions were miserable but cast my vote for Northam around 5:30ish. Glad he won.

Also this, Trump couldn't help himself:

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump  12 hours ago
Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for. Don’t forget, Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats, and with the economy doing record numbers, we will continue to win, even bigger than before!

If he did embrace him, it would have been an even bigger wave election. He doesn't see the writing on the wall.

Also, if the 50-50 HoD tie holds, expect some Rs to switch to either Indies or Dems before or during the next full session.

[Reaganfan]

I know a handful of Obama 2012 Trump 2016 voters personally. Of course, it's just a handful of people in Ohio. I actually get the impression he's really well liked up here compared to places like Colorado or Virginia.

Trump seems to do well in the blue collar states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan) whereas I think more upscale whites in Virginia and Colorado will be a problem for him. Florida I have no clue.

As I've been saying for a couple of years now, Virginia is basically gone for the GOP. Atleast in the short-term.

I noticed the difference between upscale white, more socially conscious voters in places like Virginia and Colorado and downscale white, less politically correct voters in places like Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan. Pennsylvania has a little of both.

I've found this demographic very, very fascinating since I've been harping on it for years and it ended up being the decisive forgotten votes that propelled Trump to the White House.

I think two things have big factors with these voters:

1. Money
- For anyone of my friends or family, even those of us who make good money for white working class Americans, in order to move to a state like Colorado or Virginia, especially a nice place, we would need a significant amount of money. This tells me that many of these white voters in Virginia and Colorado are actually quite well off, perhaps more college degrees. This could also allow them to embrace more of a social justice agenda than people like myself and many in the Midwest since our focus is still on economics.

2. Class
- To be honest, the things that "shocked" all those yoga-training career oriented 28 year old college educated women in a place like Prince William County didn't really have an impact in a place like Lake County, OH or Macomb County, MI. I think political correctness is a much, much bigger issue once you don't have finances to worry about and if you have much more college education.

Nevertheless, I find these white voter differences very interesting as they will be useful in predicting elections in the future.

[SoLongAtlas]

I know a handful of Obama 2012 Trump 2016 voters personally. Of course, it's just a handful of people in Ohio. I actually get the impression he's really well liked up here compared to places like Colorado or Virginia.

Trump seems to do well in the blue collar states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan) whereas I think more upscale whites in Virginia and Colorado will be a problem for him. Florida I have no clue.

As I've been saying for a couple of years now, Virginia is basically gone for the GOP. Atleast in the short-term.

I noticed the difference between upscale white, more socially conscious voters in places like Virginia and Colorado and downscale white, less politically correct voters in places like Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan. Pennsylvania has a little of both.

I've found this demographic very, very fascinating since I've been harping on it for years and it ended up being the decisive forgotten votes that propelled Trump to the White House.

I think two things have big factors with these voters:

1. Money
- For anyone of my friends or family, even those of us who make good money for white working class Americans, in order to move to a state like Colorado or Virginia, especially a nice place, we would need a significant amount of money. This tells me that many of these white voters in Virginia and Colorado are actually quite well off, perhaps more college degrees. This could also allow them to embrace more of a social justice agenda than people like myself and many in the Midwest since our focus is still on economics.

2. Class
- To be honest, the things that "shocked" all those yoga-training career oriented 28 year old college educated women in a place like Prince William County didn't really have an impact in a place like Lake County, OH or Macomb County, MI. I think political correctness is a much, much bigger issue once you don't have finances to worry about and if you have much more college education.

None the less, I find these white voter differences very interesting as they will be useful in predicting elections in the future.

Virginia is not gone for Republicans statewide, moreso presidential. They have a base in VB, rural Virginia, and huge numbers in SW. The trick is to moderate and when I say moderate, I mean actual moderation, pre-1980s style GOP. The GOP has turned up the Trumpism heat in VA and it only helps them with their base in rural and let's face it, dying off literally and figuratively, parts of the state.

You are correct in terms of the point about VA having a white professional class, esp. in NoVA and Richmond. It makes these areas either Dem control or potential for moderate and liberal Republican swing districts but the GOP won't do that for the sake of RINO! in the primaries. It will haunt them for a couple more decades, at least. However, the idea that Virginia is now free to have Dems run full-tilt on SJW issues in VA is absolutely wrong. Economic issues, education, infrastructure, and good governance, are still the major issues here.

[Badger]

I know a handful of Obama 2012 Trump 2016 voters personally. Of course, it's just a handful of people in Ohio. I actually get the impression he's really well liked up here compared to places like Colorado or Virginia.

Trump seems to do well in the blue collar states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan) whereas I think more upscale whites in Virginia and Colorado will be a problem for him. Florida I have no clue.

As I've been saying for a couple of years now, Virginia is basically gone for the GOP. Atleast in the short-term.

I noticed the difference between upscale white, more socially conscious voters in places like Virginia and Colorado and downscale white, less politically correct voters in places like Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan. Pennsylvania has a little of both.

I've found this demographic very, very fascinating since I've been harping on it for years and it ended up being the decisive forgotten votes that propelled Trump to the White House.

I think two things have big factors with these voters:

1. Money
- For anyone of my friends or family, even those of us who make good money for white working class Americans, in order to move to a state like Colorado or Virginia, especially a nice place, we would need a significant amount of money. This tells me that many of these white voters in Virginia and Colorado are actually quite well off, perhaps more college degrees. This could also allow them to embrace more of a social justice agenda than people like myself and many in the Midwest since our focus is still on economics.

2. Class
- To be honest, the things that "shocked" all those yoga-training career oriented 28 year old college educated women in a place like Prince William County didn't really have an impact in a place like Lake County, OH or Macomb County, MI. I think political correctness is a much, much bigger issue once you don't have finances to worry about and if you have much more college education.

Nevertheless, I find these white voter differences very interesting as they will be useful in predicting elections in the future.

Even when once in a blue moon you make correct political analysis, you can't help sounding like a complete doltish dick doing so.

This also explains my none of those 28 year old yoga teachers will ever ever ever sleep with you, nor any of their friends.

One last note, I assure you that income levels are going to skew Democratic lower you go, so you can take the blue collar man chip off your white power shoulder.

[KingSweden]

I apologize for my predictions,I was really wrong I thought for sure that the off year would help Gillespie but it didn’t so I apologize now on to 2018.

No need to apologize for the predictions themselves, ever. Most of us got last year really really wrong

[Gass3268]

Great night. Over an hour's worth of traffic to get back home and conditions were miserable but cast my vote for Northam around 5:30ish. Glad he won.

Also this, Trump couldn't help himself:

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump  12 hours ago
Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for. Don’t forget, Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats, and with the economy doing record numbers, we will continue to win, even bigger than before!

If he did embrace him, it would have been an even bigger wave election. He doesn't see the writing on the wall.

Also, if the 50-50 HoD tie holds, expect some Rs to switch to either Indies or Dems before or during the next full session.

Any chance Democrats could make a deal to flip a Republican Senator?

[heatcharger]

I know everyone implicitly understands that Northam's big victory was powered by backlash in the suburbs, but I feel like the county results haven't gotten the attention they deserve. Like these Northam vote %'s are just insane:

Fairfax: 68%
Arlington: 80%
Alexandria: 78%
Loudoun: 60%
Prince William: 61%
Albemarle: 64%
Henrico: 60%
Chesterfield: 49% (!!!)

Hell even Stafford: 47%

That is a wipeout of epic proportions for the Republican Party. RINO Toms will make excuses saying the demographics of these areas have changed, and that is undoubtedly true. But they haven't changed that much from 2014, where Gillespie did very well in these areas, and they certainly haven't changed that much from 2016, where Trump actually did better than Gillespie did last night in these areas.

This is why I think it's laughable that people have said Hillary Clinton was a "perfect fit" for upscale, (white) college-educated suburbs. Put up a candidate who doesn't inspire massive levels of vitriol and someone who is affable like Ralph Northam, and these areas are ready to vote Democratic big league. Hand-wringing left-wingers need to get the memo too.

[Badger]

I know everyone implicitly understands that Northam's big victory was powered by backlash in the suburbs, but I feel like the county results haven't gotten the attention they deserve. Like these Northam vote %'s are just insane:

Fairfax: 68%
Arlington: 80%
Alexandria: 78%
Loudoun: 60%
Prince William: 61%
Albemarle: 64%
Henrico: 60%
Chesterfield: 49% (!!!)

Hell even Stafford: 47%

That is a wipeout of epic proportions for the Republican Party. RINO Toms will make excuses saying the demographics of these areas have changed, and that is undoubtedly true. But they haven't changed that much from 2014, where Gillespie did very well in these areas, and they certainly haven't changed that much from 2016, where Trump actually did better than Gillespie did last night in these areas.

This is why I think it's laughable that people have said Hillary Clinton was a "perfect fit" for upscale, (white) college-educated suburbs. Put up a candidate who doesn't inspire massive levels of vitriol and someone who is affable like Ralph Northam, and these areas are ready to vote Democratic big league. Hand-wringing left-wingers need to get the memo too.

But aren't several of these counties, particularly Chesterfield which you highlight, heavily Suburban?

[heatcharger]

Fairfax: 68%
Arlington: 80%
Alexandria: 78%
Loudoun: 60%
Prince William: 61%
Albemarle: 64%
Henrico: 60%
Chesterfield: 49% (!!!)

Hell even Stafford: 47%

But aren't several of these counties, particularly Chesterfield which you highlight, heavily Suburban?

Well yes, I was just pointing out that these are historic margins in the VA suburbs for Democrats, and historic lows for Republicans. Every county I listed there (excluding Arlington and Alexandria, which are hardly counties) were Bush 2000 counties. That's hard to fathom at this point.

[SoLongAtlas]

Fairfax: 68%
Arlington: 80%
Alexandria: 78%
Loudoun: 60%
Prince William: 61%
Albemarle: 64%
Henrico: 60%
Chesterfield: 49% (!!!)

Hell even Stafford: 47%

But aren't several of these counties, particularly Chesterfield which you highlight, heavily Suburban?

Well yes, I was just pointing out that these are historic margins in the VA suburbs for Democrats, and historic lows for Republicans. Every county I listed there (excluding Arlington and Alexandria, which are hardly counties) were Bush 2000 counties. That's hard to fathom at this point.

They will remain in the D column pending any true moderation by the GOP (not going to happen soon). The next county that will go D full time is Stafford.

The VA GOP won't moderate and will go full-on Confederate Corey, imo, thus providing even more Dem waves.

[Yank2133]

I know a handful of Obama 2012 Trump 2016 voters personally. Of course, it's just a handful of people in Ohio. I actually get the impression he's really well liked up here compared to places like Colorado or Virginia.

Trump seems to do well in the blue collar states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan) whereas I think more upscale whites in Virginia and Colorado will be a problem for him. Florida I have no clue.

As I've been saying for a couple of years now, Virginia is basically gone for the GOP. Atleast in the short-term.

I noticed the difference between upscale white, more socially conscious voters in places like Virginia and Colorado and downscale white, less politically correct voters in places like Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan. Pennsylvania has a little of both.

I've found this demographic very, very fascinating since I've been harping on it for years and it ended up being the decisive forgotten votes that propelled Trump to the White House.

I think two things have big factors with these voters:

1. Money
- For anyone of my friends or family, even those of us who make good money for white working class Americans, in order to move to a state like Colorado or Virginia, especially a nice place, we would need a significant amount of money. This tells me that many of these white voters in Virginia and Colorado are actually quite well off, perhaps more college degrees. This could also allow them to embrace more of a social justice agenda than people like myself and many in the Midwest since our focus is still on economics.

2. Class
- To be honest, the things that "shocked" all those yoga-training career oriented 28 year old college educated women in a place like Prince William County didn't really have an impact in a place like Lake County, OH or Macomb County, MI. I think political correctness is a much, much bigger issue once you don't have finances to worry about and if you have much more college education.

None the less, I find these white voter differences very interesting as they will be useful in predicting elections in the future.

Virginia is not gone for Republicans statewide, moreso presidential. They have a base in VB, rural Virginia, and huge numbers in SW. The trick is to moderate and when I say moderate, I mean actual moderation, pre-1980s style GOP. The GOP has turned up the Trumpism heat in VA and it only helps them with their base in rural and let's face it, dying off literally and figuratively, parts of the state.

You are correct in terms of the point about VA having a white professional class, esp. in NoVA and Richmond. It makes these areas either Dem control or potential for moderate and liberal Republican swing districts but the GOP won't do that for the sake of RINO! in the primaries. It will haunt them for a couple more decades, at least. However, the idea that Virginia is now free to have Dems run full-tilt on SJW issues in VA is absolutely wrong. Economic issues, education, infrastructure, and good governance, are still the major issues here.

This.

Bob McDonnell is the model that GOP should look at if they want to win statewide in VA.