VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Mike Thick]

Ffx County just came in. Hugo has won by 115 votes. http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

Let's give it a bit.

If Hugo won, would that mean a 51-49 Republican advantage or a tie? I haven’t been able to keep track.

[Doimper]

It's hilarious to go back earlier in this thread and read all the panic, lol. Election day threads are so horrible. They should be closed until the polls are closed.

The wall of shame:

Sigh, looks like its going to rain for the rest of the day in Nova.

YES!!! SOME NORTHAM VOTERS STAY HOME, GILLESPIE HAS A SHOT!!!

All of Virginia's Congressional districts are getting gerrymandered and there's nothing you can do about it because of rain lmao

Petersburg is heavily AA city turnout may not even match 2013 levels, this is a disaster.

The Trump gloating tomorrow will be insufferable.

Pretty soon all the working people will soar to the polls and Gillespie will take the lead.

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928020721032417280


Its over for Northam. That's the same Trump approval spread as the Rasmussen poll.

[Dr. Arch]

Ffx County just came in. Hugo has won by 115 votes. http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

Let's give it a bit.

If Hugo won, would that mean a 51-49 Republican advantage or a tie? I haven’t been able to keep track.

It would make the ceiling 51R, but it could be 53D. We just don't know yet. We need to wait on provisionals and the likely recounts.

[SoLongAtlas]

VPAP still has a timestamp of 1:30 a.m. 11/8 on their site for this race, meaning their numbers are old. VA Dept of Elections numbers have been updated as of 28 mins ago.

Update: Not all of Ffx data is up to date on the DoE page by precincts, provisionals, and absentees so Tanner still has a shot.

[Dr. Arch]

VPAP still has a timestamp of 1:30 a.m. 11/8 on their site for this race, meaning their numbers are old. VA Dept of Elections numbers have been updated as of 28 mins ago.

Update: Not all of Ffx data is up to date on the DoE page by precincts, provisionals, and absentees so Tanner still has a shot.

Yep

[Bidenworth2020]

Ffx County just came in. Hugo has won by 115 votes. http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

again, how did tanner LOSE votes compared to VPAP

[Anna Komnene]

Ffx County just came in. Hugo has won by 115 votes. http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

again, how did tanner LOSE votes compared to VPAP

There could have been a counting error that they fixed in the canvas. It happens sometimes. But I think right now no one really knows for sure other than the actual election officials.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, crap.

[Holmes]

Hugo will be a big target in 2019.

[Tender Branson]

Fun with turnout statistics (using Austria as a comparison, because VA, NJ and NYC have virtually the same population):

VA: 2.6 million

NJ: 2.1 million

NYC: 1.1 million

AUT: 5.1 million

Always amazing how low the turnout in the US is ...

The turnout in our election 3 weeks ago was even higher than PA's in last years Presidential election. But PA has almost 13 million people compared with 9 million here.

[Gustaf]

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb hick is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

Are either of those statements false?

No, obviously not so I guess you didn't understand how you were being stupid. Maybe you should read it again and try to think better.

Okay.. I'm being stupid by saying the truth.. Makes a whole lot of sense doesn't it?

Well, see there are many truthful statements that constitute dumb answers. For example, if you're doing a test and the question is "what is 1+1" and your answer is "the capital of Australia is Canberra" you'd look like an idiot even though your answer is a true statement. And if someone gently hinted that you should rethink why you're being dumb and you insisted on doubling down you'd look even dumber. But sure, keep doing it.

Brilliant comparison man

Well, it't not really a comparison. I just explained how a comment can be stupid even if it's true. I guess, ironically, you still didn't get it.

[Tender Branson]

Fun with turnout statistics (using Austria as a comparison, because VA, NJ and NYC have virtually the same population):

VA: 2.6 million

NJ: 2.1 million

NYC: 1.1 million

AUT: 5.1 million

Always amazing how low the turnout in the US is ...

The turnout in our election 3 weeks ago was even higher than PA's in last years Presidential election. But PA has almost 13 million people compared with 9 million here.

The comparison with Dutch turnout this year:

Almost 11 million people voted in the Dutch election.

That is 10x the turnout of NYC, despite Holland only having 2x NYC's population ...

So, basically Dutch turnout is 5x higher than NYC's ...

[Gass3268]

I wonder if Northam will consider pulling some Republicans from the HoD and Senate in order to create some favorable special elections.

[Virginiá]

I wonder if Northam will consider pulling some Republicans from the HoD and Senate in order to create some favorable special elections.

I mean he would have to be a genuine idiot to not try that. There is no guarantee it would work, but as I was saying last night, if he can oust a little from each chamber, he could potentially offer the newly-vacated Republicans judicial positions, since the legislature votes on those offices. That would seem more enticing, imo. At least for vulnerable Republicans who might want to have a political career outside of losing elections.

It's something I personally find distasteful to advocate for, but the chance at ending Republican dominance of the legislature long-term is just too big of an opportunity to pass on. There is a reasonable chance here that Democrats could be in control for a long time if a lot of things go right, and I don't think they would even need to gerrymander the HoD map.

[heatcharger]

There is a reasonable chance here that Democrats could be in control for a long time if a lot of things go right, and I don't think they would even need to gerrymander the HoD map.

We don't need to do an aggressive Dem gerrymander, but Democrats won the HoD PV by 9% and still only got to 50-50. A lot of that can be chalked up to uncontested races, but we have to protect ourselves here.

[Skill and Chance]

This is a truly impressive VA Dem result all around.  I was expecting another McAuliffe or Warner 2014 style squeaker for Northam.  This (and GA-06 even though Ossoff lost) is a preliminary indication that the Dem shift in Romney-Clinton areas is looking permanent.  That could have important implications for CA, AZ, GA, NC and parts of TX next year if it holds.  On the other hand, we didn't get a lot of data last night from Obama-Trump areas.  An incumbent Republican judge winning statewide PA isn't necessarily a surprise, but it doesn't line up with the rest of what Dems accomplished last night.  VA was all about extending the margin in Romney-Clinton areas, not winning back the handful of Obama-Trump areas.  But Democrats have gotten impressive results in Obama-Trump district special elections in many parts of the country.  VA-GOV historically has a decent correlation with the next midterm's results (because it is usually won by the out-party), but it's by no means a sure thing as 2013 showed us.  NJ-GOV was basically in line with the Clinton-Trump margin, but I think NJ Dems flipped several legislative districts?

[Virginiá]

Wow, it was 9 points? I was actually just looking for the HoD PV info.

Anyway, you're probably right, but I have a hard time actually advocating for a gerrymander because I fundamentally disagree with it. I was just thinking that under a neutral map, Democrats could solidify their position through incumbency and an electorate that is naturally trending Democratic as it is.

Plus, if Democrats were to pass massive election reforms, such as same-day registration, early voting, moving election to normal years, it could make it even more Dem-friendly. Although I think these are things they should do anyway, just on principle.

[Virginiá]

 NJ-GOV was basically in line with the Clinton-Trump margin, but I think NJ Dems flipped several legislative districts?

I think the final results were less impressing than what they looked like early in the night. IIRC, it was D+1 in each chamber, but in the state Senate there were like 3 - 5 seats within like 6 points, give or take.

No worries though, Democrats will have another shot to expand their majorities in 2019, and as it stands now it's still almost a supermajority with a unified Democratic govt.

[Gustaf]

Tidbit I noticed in the exit polls: 37% of the electorate are married men and 30% were married women. So that means 7% of the voters (at least) were married men whose wives didn't vote? Is that a normal thing? It just sounds a little odd to me. Like, "bye, honey I'm off to vote, watch the kids!" ?

[heatcharger]

Tidbit I noticed in the exit polls: 37% of the electorate are married men and 30% were married women. So that means 7% of the voters (at least) were married men whose wives didn't vote? Is that a normal thing? It just sounds a little odd to me. Like, "bye, honey I'm off to vote, watch the kids!" ?

VA men are increasingly marrying women from D.C. and Maryland.

I just made that up, but I don't know how else to explain that discrepancy. Exit polls are often flawed though.

[Skill and Chance]

Wow, it was 9 points? I was actually just looking for the HoD PV info.

Anyway, you're probably right, but I have a hard time actually advocating for a gerrymander because I fundamentally disagree with it. I was just thinking that under a neutral map, Democrats could solidify their position through incumbency and an electorate that is naturally trending Democratic as it is.

Plus, if Democrats were to pass massive election reforms, such as same-day registration, early voting, moving election to normal years, it could make it even more Dem-friendly. Although I think these are things they should do anyway, just on principle.

Changing the statewide races to presidential years would require a constitutional amendment, but a party that controls both chambers of the legislature can refer one to the ballot.  I'm not 100% sure they would want to do that for Governor/LG/AG, but Democrats would probably love to have all the state legislative elections in presidential years.

[Gustaf]

Tidbit I noticed in the exit polls: 37% of the electorate are married men and 30% were married women. So that means 7% of the voters (at least) were married men whose wives didn't vote? Is that a normal thing? It just sounds a little odd to me. Like, "bye, honey I'm off to vote, watch the kids!" ?

VA men are increasingly marrying women from D.C. and Maryland.

I just made that up, but I don't know how else to explain that discrepancy. Exit polls are often flawed though.

Yeah, I guess it could just be off. Though part of my reaction here is that I would have thought most married couples would vote together (my parents certainly do) which would also make it less likely you'd just missample them as an exit pollster.

The DC/Maryland thing makes some sense though. If men are more likely to earn more or something and NOVA is richer maybe? Or it's the alt-right voters not letting their womens vote.

[Bidenworth2020]

will HD-94 have a recount?

https://www.vpap.org/offices/house-of-delegates-94/elections/

[Nyvin]

will HD-94 have a recount?

https://www.vpap.org/offices/house-of-delegates-94/elections/

Almost definitely.

[Oryxslayer]

will HD-94 have a recount?

https://www.vpap.org/offices/house-of-delegates-94/elections/

If there doesn't end up being a recount (after provisionals are all counted) then the parties are truly incompetent.