VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)
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  VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)
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Author Topic: VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)  (Read 93531 times)
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #1750 on: November 08, 2017, 03:32:39 PM »

Becaue of the results today, I upgraded MD-Gov from Lean D to Likely D, and ME-Gov from Likely D to Safe D.  I also added 2019 predictions.
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Doimper
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« Reply #1751 on: November 08, 2017, 04:21:53 PM »

Any updates on the Tanner/Hugo situation?
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erſatz-york
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« Reply #1752 on: November 08, 2017, 04:40:43 PM »

ED WILL BE BACK 2021

TITANIUM-COATED DIAMOND

R
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1753 on: November 08, 2017, 04:55:53 PM »

Wow, it was 9 points? I was actually just looking for the HoD PV info.

Someone on Twitter noted that there were a large number of uncontested D seats, much more than uncontested R seats, which inflates the totals. That said, knowing how gerrymandered the map is, I doubt there were many Republican votes to be had in an uncontested D seat in Richmond or Arlington.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1754 on: November 08, 2017, 04:58:53 PM »


That's ridiculous.

It'll be ULTRA TITANIUM-COATED DIAMOND R
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1755 on: November 08, 2017, 05:42:37 PM »

Why the f would you coat diamond with titanium? Friedrich Mohs is rolling in his grave.
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Badger
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« Reply #1756 on: November 08, 2017, 09:18:04 PM »

Tidbit I noticed in the exit polls: 37% of the electorate are married men and 30% were married women. So that means 7% of the voters (at least) were married men whose wives didn't vote? Is that a normal thing? It just sounds a little odd to me. Like, "bye, honey I'm off to vote, watch the kids!" ?

VA men are increasingly marrying women from D.C. and Maryland.

I just made that up, but I don't know how else to explain that discrepancy. Exit polls are often flawed though.

It's the creeping expansion of Sharia-following polygamist Muslims in NoVa. Duh!
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Kringla Heimsins
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« Reply #1757 on: November 08, 2017, 09:34:30 PM »

Tidbit I noticed in the exit polls: 37% of the electorate are married men and 30% were married women. So that means 7% of the voters (at least) were married men whose wives didn't vote? Is that a normal thing? It just sounds a little odd to me. Like, "bye, honey I'm off to vote, watch the kids!" ?

VA men are increasingly marrying women from D.C. and Maryland.

I just made that up, but I don't know how else to explain that discrepancy. Exit polls are often flawed though.


Yeah, I guess it could just be off. Though part of my reaction here is that I would have thought most married couples would vote together (my parents certainly do) which would also make it less likely you'd just missample them as an exit pollster.

The DC/Maryland thing makes some sense though. If men are more likely to earn more or something and NOVA is richer maybe? Or it's the alt-right voters not letting their womens vote. Tongue

Maybe those 7% are actually married to each other.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1758 on: November 08, 2017, 09:42:52 PM »

Actually, male turnout was higher than female turnout, right? Not the most common thing.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1759 on: November 08, 2017, 09:57:45 PM »

Actually, male turnout was higher than female turnout, right? Not the most common thing.

Probably just bad exit polls. Especially in states with significant black populations, male turnout higher than female never happens.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1760 on: November 09, 2017, 05:15:06 AM »

Nominal change in turnout between 2013 and 2017:



Fun fact: in Charlottesville proper, Northam received more votes (13,909) than were cast for all 3 gubernatorial candidates in 2013 (12,494).

Turnout in the city jumped by 31.32% (from 12494 to 16408), giving it the distinction of having the third-largest percentage increase in turnout compared to 2013, besting even high-growth areas. Pulaski County and Lee County beat it in this regard; Pulaski is an off-shoot of Blacksburg and not far from Roanoke and Lee is close to the Tri-Cities area, but neither of these counties have seen any real population growth according to the Census...? So not sure what happened there, but both are relatively small counties and I feel like they're flukes.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1761 on: November 09, 2017, 05:36:13 AM »

Actually, male turnout was higher than female turnout, right? Not the most common thing.

Probably just bad exit polls. Especially in states with significant black populations, male turnout higher than female never happens.

This is driven by white voters in the exit polls, black female turnout did beat black male turnout.

Badger, loving the Sharia explanation. Cheesy
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1762 on: November 09, 2017, 07:49:10 AM »

This is off-topic, but I find it pretty hilarious that Charlie Cook thinks that Tim Kaine is as vulnerable as Tammy Baldwin or Jon Tester in 2018. Like, you can totally believe that Democrats are almost certainly going to win MT and WI, but come on, VA is obviously more likely to send a Democrat to the Senate. If MT, WI, etc. are all "Likely D", VA should definitely be Safe D. As should NJ, btw.

I agree except its now all up to Comstock. If she does what everyone here expects, and runs for Senate to avoid a Massacre in VA=10, then I could see Likely D a valid rating. If not, it should slide to Safe D.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #1763 on: November 09, 2017, 09:01:39 AM »

I prefer Stewart in the general. I want to see him fully embrace everything about Bone Spurs in Chief and then lose badly. Trump's twitter rant will be epic.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1764 on: November 09, 2017, 10:24:18 AM »

Good article here from the Washington Post about where things go from here in the State Legislature

Look for Northam to try to pull Republicans out of the legislature and into his cabinet in order to create favorable special election opportunities for Democrats on both sides.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1765 on: November 09, 2017, 10:51:32 AM »

Actually, male turnout was higher than female turnout, right? Not the most common thing.

Probably just bad exit polls. Especially in states with significant black populations, male turnout higher than female never happens.

This is driven by white voters in the exit polls, black female turnout did beat black male turnout.

Badger, loving the Sharia explanation. Cheesy

Yes, but the lean towards men among white voters, if it even actually exists, should not be enough to overcome the always larger difference in favor of black women over black men. It's just exit poll weirdness.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #1766 on: November 09, 2017, 04:23:03 PM »

I prefer Stewart in the general. I want to see him fully embrace everything about Bone Spurs in Chief and then lose badly. Trump's twitter rant will be epic.
I want stewart to win just to see what a dem winning over 60% of the vote looks like
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1767 on: November 09, 2017, 04:58:32 PM »

VPAP has the gubernatorial race by State House districts up. Nothing too surprising here; Northam outperformed Democratic HoD candidates by 5-10 points about everywhere in NoVA, RVA, and VA Beach.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1768 on: November 09, 2017, 05:45:51 PM »

I prefer Stewart in the general. I want to see him fully embrace everything about Bone Spurs in Chief and then lose badly. Trump's twitter rant will be epic.
I want stewart to win just to see what a dem winning over 60% of the vote looks like

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=51&year=2008&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=2

Fun fact: Gilmore lost by 31 points while Gillespie lost by 9 points, but the Fairfax County margins were identical in both elections (68-31). Pretty insane. And yeah, it shows that a Dem getting 60% of the vote would look much different now than it did in 2008. I doubt that would happen though. I think even Stewart would have a floor of 40-42% or so.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1769 on: November 09, 2017, 06:33:55 PM »

Very cool chart:



Source
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1770 on: November 09, 2017, 06:39:37 PM »

VPAP has the gubernatorial race by State House districts up. Nothing too surprising here; Northam outperformed Democratic HoD candidates by 5-10 points about everywhere in NoVA, RVA, and VA Beach.

How many seats did Northam win?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1771 on: November 09, 2017, 06:43:04 PM »

VPAP has the gubernatorial race by State House districts up. Nothing too surprising here; Northam outperformed Democratic HoD candidates by 5-10 points about everywhere in NoVA, RVA, and VA Beach.

How many seats did Northam win?

He appears to have won 58/100 districts.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1772 on: November 09, 2017, 06:44:02 PM »

VPAP has the gubernatorial race by State House districts up. Nothing too surprising here; Northam outperformed Democratic HoD candidates by 5-10 points about everywhere in NoVA, RVA, and VA Beach.

How many seats did Northam win?

He appears to have won 58 districts.

Oh wow. This means that Democrats still have plenty of room to grow in the next election. There could be a clear majority by 2019.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1773 on: November 09, 2017, 09:06:35 PM »


Oh wow. This means that Democrats still have plenty of room to grow in the next election. There could be a clear majority by 2019.

Yes. In fact, it would be fair to say Democrats are favored to take back both the state Senate and HoD in 2019 if the election is even half as good as it was this week. They don't have over a dozen incumbents to take out next time around, and because those were almost all Clinton districts, they will be easier to keep. In many ways this was a massive correction on an over-extended GOP that got greedy in the last round  of redistricting.

As it stands now, there are a few Clinton districts and like a half dozen marginal Trump districts Democrats could make serious plays for. As soon as they take complete control, the HoD gerrymander comes down and there will probably be a slew of pro-voter reforms passed.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1774 on: November 09, 2017, 09:20:13 PM »

Yancey's and Hugo's wins (premature, I know) look real impressive in light of Northam's curb-stomping here. However, if Northam is even moderately popular come 2019 and Trump is still as hated, I think they'll see the writing on the wall and we'll see more rats fleein the ship before another suburban curb-stomping happens. and this doesn't even factor in the Trump-Northam districts (7 of them)

Oh, and Sturtevant and Black are all but DOA. The VAGOP is probably gonna struggle holding onto Wagner and Dunnavant as it is.

Yeah, this is what I was thinking. Most of the newly-elected Democrats that won are not going to lose their seats, and the party will only have to invest in defense in a limited number, so there will a disproportionate amount of money and energy directed at Republicans in the remaining Clinton districts and Northam-Trump marginal districts. At least some of those incumbents, maybe even some that just barely held on this time, like Hugo, Yancey, Robinson and Thomas (assuming they all win the recounts), will probably retire.

I'm calling it now. If Trump is still unpopular by Nov 2019, Democrats will win the state Senate and House of Delegates outright.
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