VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Badger]

I don't know what the hand ringing is about. Rural Virginia is overwhelmingly White, and the fact northrim perform this well in the roar areas is something of a Triumph. There are few States outside of maybe Vermont and to a lesser degree New Hampshire Main in Massachusetts where rural voters are going to be as demonstrable liberal.

The city's plus suburbs plus not getting out early annihilated in rural areas is a pretty effective electoral electoral strategy in most States. The big problem for Democrats is that Suburban portion mostly unravels south of the Mason-Dixon

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

The ideal Democratic coalition is cities+countryside vs suburbs, not cities+suburbs vs countryside.

Uhhh why exactly? Political geography isn't the same in every country you know, and nor would that be ideal.

Because left-wing parties ought to stand with poor people, and American suburbs are overwhelmingly wealthy.

Indeed, that shouldn't be the same in every country. In Europe where a good part of the suburbs are working-class, these places should vote to the left.

What is your definition of "wealthy"?

[Virginiá]

http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/republicans-fear-gov--elect-ralph-northam-will-try-to/article_eeac5022-8eeb-5803-bc54-ba5a43ffa869.html

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Panic! I wonder how many vulnerable Republican lawmakers will want to upgrade their salary and pension instead of losing in 2019

[Rookie Yinzer]

American suburbs are overwhelmingly wealthy.

This is preposterous.

[Virginiá]

https://wtop.com/virginia/2017/11/as-va-heads-recounts-dems-ask-hundreds-wrong-ballots-fredericksburg/

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So it turns out that since 2011, hundreds of votes in each election could have been incorrectly cast in the wrong district, and it hasn't been noticed until now because the races were never that close and thus no one ever really paid that much attention.

If this pans out, there could be enough votes to flip HD-28 back to the Democrat. Combined with Yancey's recount, this increases the odds of a 51D-49R majority, or at least a 50-50 chamber.

[Skill and Chance]

https://wtop.com/virginia/2017/11/as-va-heads-recounts-dems-ask-hundreds-wrong-ballots-fredericksburg/

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So it turns out that since 2011, hundreds of votes in each election could have been incorrectly cast in the wrong district, and it hasn't been noticed until now because the races were never that close and thus no one ever really paid that much attention.

If this pans out, there could be enough votes to flip HD-28 back to the Democrat. Combined with Yancey's recount, this increases the odds of a 51D-49R majority, or at least a 50-50 chamber.

If this is verified, wouldn't the remedy for have to be a special election under the correct line, since the voters in these precincts cast their ballots choosing between 2 different candidates in a different district?

Of course, a low turnout special for control of the legislature (well, control for one side or the other vs. power sharing pending the HD-94 recount) is just about the worst case scenario for the GOP in the present environment.

[Virginiá]

If this is verified, wouldn't the remedy for have to be a special election under the correct line, since the voters in these precincts cast their ballots choosing between 2 different candidates in a different district?

Of course, a low turnout special for control of the legislature (well, control for one side or the other vs. power sharing pending the HD-94 recount) is just about the worst case scenario for the GOP in the present environment.

You know, I'm not sure. The best outcome here is a special election. Fundamentally, the terrain is just as rough for Republicans as it was on election day, but this time the Democratic Party will drop an army of volunteers and paid staff into the district.

In fact, as it stands right now, I think the last thing the VAGOP would want is any special election in a Republican-held district that is as Democratic as Trump+7.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tell me again about how American elections aren't a joke...

[pikachu]

The ideal Democratic coalition is cities+countryside vs suburbs, not cities+suburbs vs countryside.

Uhhh why exactly? Political geography isn't the same in every country you know, and nor would that be ideal.

Because left-wing parties ought to stand with poor people, and American suburbs are overwhelmingly wealthy.

Indeed, that shouldn't be the same in every country. In Europe where a good part of the suburbs are working-class, these places should vote to the left.

Tbf, there's always the sheer demographic fact that America's by-an-large a suburban country, and that the suburbs themselves have becoming significantly poorer than they once were, at a faster rate than central cities at this point. The attitude a lot of liberals have toward Appalachia is beyond appalling, but there's also a growing constituency in the suburbs which is going to be responsive to the left. 

[Keep cool-idge]

In all seriousness I think the gop will barely hold the house of delegates.

[Virginiá]

Northam appears to be considering an attempt to pull Frank Wagner (R) into his administration as Transportation Secretary. This would free up SD-7 for a special election where Democrats would likely be favored. SD-7 went for Clinton by about 1% or so, 47-47 in 2012, and Northam won it by something like 7 or 8 points I think.

As I posted on AAD, this was Wagner's comment:

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Needless to say, VA Republicans losing Wagner would be devastating both in the short and long term. With a Democratic incumbent for 2019, it would likely stay blue or be slightly favored to flip if a Republican held the seat in a special.

[MAINEiac4434]

Northam appears to be considering an attempt to pull Frank Wagner (R) into his administration as Transportation Secretary. This would free up SD-7 for a special election where Democrats would likely be favored. SD-7 went for Clinton by about 1% or so, 47-47 in 2012, and Northam won it by something like 7 or 8 points I think.

As I posted on AAD, this was Wagner's comment:

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Needless to say, VA Republicans losing Wagner would be devastating both in the short and long term. With a Democratic incumbent for 2019, it would likely stay blue or be slightly favored to flip if a Republican held the seat in a special.

I already love Ralph Northam.

[KingSweden]

Ralph Northam, sly as a fox

[Panhandle Progressive]

Ralph Northam, sly as a fox

Yep. Come on and bust a (special election) move!

[Gustaf]

So, when will we know the HoD result?

[windjammer]

So, when will we know the HoD result?

Tommorow apparently

[Virginiá]

They are certifying the elections tomorrow, but then people will be filing for recounts. So tomorrow will have 51R - 49D and then we'll see where the races end up after recounts at the beginning of December.

[Dr. Arch]

Latest VPAP update has Tanner leading Hugo in HD-40. This would put it at 50-50 if it holds, correct?

[Oryxslayer]

Latest VPAP update has Tanner leading Hugo in HD-40. This would put it at 50-50 if it holds, correct?

Considering VPAP still has Yancey's lead at 12 votes, it is likely that this is simply the day of results, and VPAP never updated it afterwards. Checking the Sec of State shows Hugo still ahead, with the last update on the 13th. VPAP says they updated sooner but their numbers are older so...

Also nobodies freaking out about it on Twitter like they were with the HD28 ballots, so your likely still seeing the old numbers before the recanvas saw the dem votes drop.

[henster]

Wow I thought Hugo was ahead, Tribbett said his lead was very likely to be maintained.

[Oryxslayer]

Wow I thought Hugo was ahead, Tribbett said his lead was very likely to be maintained.

As I said above, it probably it, VPAP simply never updated their numbers but we are being confused. If the VA political junkies aren't freaking out, it isn't real.

[Holmes]

I would go by the Department of Elections' website. Though I love VPAP's precinct maps.

[SoLongAtlas]

“Welcome to Venezuela,” Findlay (Executive Director for the RPV)said afterward. “This is how elections happen in Venezuela, Soviet Russia and now the commonwealth of Virginia. We don’t like the winners, we’re gonna have a new election.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/va-holds-off-certifying-tight-house-race-amid-new-claims-of-ballot-mix-ups/2017/11/20/780bf2a6-ce12-11e7-9d3a-bcbe2af58c3a_story.html

--

LOL NOW THAT'S RICH! RPV only likes it when the purge voters from their rolls and engage in dirty tricks and ads to gin up voters downstate but when it hits them in the a**, the elections are tantamount to Soviet Russia.

[SoLongAtlas]

Not to double post but this deserves a separate post. Mark Cole of the 88th district, one of the districts affected in the screwup of ballots, has said some pretty suspicious stuff in the past (along with pushing bathroom bills after that). This was his gem from back in 2010, pushing an anti-RFID bill to prevent "the mark of the beast."

“My understanding — I’m not a theologian — but there’s a prophecy in the Bible that says you’ll have to receive a mark, or you can neither buy nor sell things in end times,” Cole said, as quoted at the Washington Post. “Some people think these computer chips might be that mark.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/09/AR2010020903796.html

How these nuts remain in office remains a mystery, other than the fact that their constituents have failed to call them out on their BS. At least Marshall was defeated.

[Virginiá]

I mean, it's situations like this - where the elections are super close and other majority-deciding races are in the air - that make the most ugly version of political operatives/officials come out. They will say anything to "push back," even if they think it might make little difference. McCrory after his loss went around accusing people of voter fraud and yelling from the mountain tops that it was rigged when it looked like he was going to lose. Leaks showed Wisconsin Republican operatives concocting a plan to cast doubt on the results of a close state supreme court race and drum up concerns of fraud.

So I definitely wouldn't expect any less from the Findlay. It's his job to scratch, claw and pull hair until he gets Republicans into power.