VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Virginiá]

I'm not sure if this was covered already, but:

https://wtop.com/virginia/2017/11/147-voted-wrong-house-delegates-race-va/

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[muon2]

I'm not sure if this was covered already, but:

https://wtop.com/virginia/2017/11/147-voted-wrong-house-delegates-race-va/

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As I've noted in various redistricting threads, this is actually quite common in states that allow extensive chops of election jurisdictions such as counties, cities, and towns. The GIS staff is typically more engaged with the transportation and tax assessment departments, and less often with elections. Even is there is tight coordination during redistricting, new houses and subdivisions will appear mid-decade, and geocoding for elections is rarely verified. I found two areas that were miscoded in a fast growing suburban IL county last decade, and I wasn't even looking for the problem.

[junior chįmp]

Lulz

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[Blair]

Just saw this. Expect Northam will 'clarify' his views shortly (not because he thinks it's right, but because he seems to be getting a lot of flack)

I don't know why as a Governor limited to one term he'd not do this

[Bidenworth2020]

Just saw this. Expect Northam will 'clarify' his views shortly (not because he thinks it's right, but because he seems to be getting a lot of flack)

I don't know why as a Governor limited to one term he'd not do this

Are you joking?  He wants the seat in 2024

[LimoLiberal]

Oh c'mon dude. So tone deaf. You need to issue a statement today saying that you fully support the expansion of Medicaid to 400,000 virginians and will work with and lobby Republicans to support it.

[Blair]

Just saw this. Expect Northam will 'clarify' his views shortly (not because he thinks it's right, but because he seems to be getting a lot of flack)

I don't know why as a Governor limited to one term he'd not do this

Are you joking?  He wants the seat in 2024

I mean Kaine has said that he wants to be a lifer in the Senate.

[Virginiá]

From my post on AAD:

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This was one of the few things I was worried Northam wouldn't do, and I thought that worry was undeserved when reports circulated after the election that he was trying to engineer a majority, but I guess not. He's trying to play nice with people who have no interest in playing nice, and never will. I'm just wondering if maybe he did try to pluck some Republicans but couldn't find anyone, although that may be too charitable to him.

I guess it's going to be at least 2 years (until another GOP drubbing in 2019) of "good guy Democrat" in Virginia, who operates under an almost laughable assumption that people want civility more than they want Medicaid or actual solutions to their other problems. They don't care if lawmakers in Richmond hate each other and curse at each other, and they certainly don't care if he pulls a few Republicans into his administration to create the ability to move past obstruction of his policies.

But, on the other hand, it's also worth noting that Northam only had a limited number of Republican pols he could have tried to pull, given that the district they'd open up needed to be winnable for a Democrat in a special election. It could be that no lawmakers from winnable districts (or at least districts team Northam thought they could win in) wanted to leave, and that Northam is saying this now just to put on a nice face for everyone else. But, I dunno, that doesn't sound like Northam.

[Oryxslayer]

Everyone here is shouting down such a move, but I think it is a smart one. Northam right now has a 51-49 Republican House of Delegates, and a 21-19 Republican Senate. Those numbers may change before January: Dems could flip HD94, the results in HD28 could be overturned and a rerun called, Northam could pull house and senate republicans in his administration. However, at the end of the day, government will still be divided.

Pursuing Medicaid expansion against a Republican legislature is going to require a lot of force and capitol to pass, and there is no guarantee of it passing. However, if Northam holds the expansion, it becomes an issue for Dems to campaign on in 2019. The high chance of democrats gaining a Trifecta in 2019 also means that Northam can pass Medicaid expansion then without all the roadblocks, arguments, and pitfalls that would occur if he attempts to pass it now. Better for Northam to use his capitol on the easy/necessary/bipartisan stuff during the 2017-2019 period, then ram the Liberal policy through the state house once he has his Trifecta.

[heatcharger]

I mean yeah, most progressives whining about this weren't old enough to remember when Obama burned through all his political capital on healthcare and then lost 63 seats in the House. Northam isn't even in that advantageous a position either.

[Virginiá]

He strikes me as a very cautious dude. Avoiding full-frontal fights could be good for his popularity which will be a big factor in the 2019 legislative races. Maybe he is biding his time? Why waste all your political capital on something that could fail now with bare Republican majorities when you can just do it in 2019? I mean, I would at least try to pressure Norment and the GOP Speaker to consider it or suffer the consequences in 2019, but who knows what his reasoning is.

His political would be "renewed" (for lack of a better word) if Democrats swept the legislature in 2019. He'd have a new Democratic majority that, even if the caucus was fed up with Northam, would still have priorities of their own that Northam would end up signing. Northam really screwed up big here.

Also, I think regardless of what Northam does or says here, Republicans are likely still losing big in 2019. Most voters are still going to go to the polls in 2019 wanting to cripple Republicans, and most activists/volunteers in Virginia are probably aware that even if they don't feel great about Northam, that election is all about the legislature and other local races.

I mean yeah, most progressives whining about this weren't old enough to remember when Obama burned through all his political capital on healthcare and then lost 63 seats in the House. Northam isn't even in that advantageous a position either.

tbqh, it's him backing off from trying to flip the legislature that bothers me. The Medicaid issue makes sense to me from a pragmatic standpoint, even if I think he should have said things differently.

[heatcharger]

I mean yeah, most progressives whining about this weren't old enough to remember when Obama burned through all his political capital on healthcare and then lost 63 seats in the House. Northam isn't even in that advantageous a position either.

tbqh, it's him backing off from trying to flip the legislature that bothers me. The Medicaid issue makes sense to me from a pragmatic standpoint, even if I think he should have said things differently.

I'm fairly confident he tried -- weren't there some stories about him interviewing some Republicans for his cabinet? GOP leadership probably did everything in their power to make sure nobody jumps off the sinking ship.

Anyway a straight up expansion with little-to-no strings attached like what happened in NY and CA would require significant tax increases considering our balanced budget amendment. I guarantee you 2019 won't be so friendly to Democrats if that weren't implemented perfectly.

[IceSpear]

Looks like Northam is already returning to his Republican roots. There's no excuse for any Democrat to not vigorously push for Medicaid expansion. Should've nominated Perriello.

[IceSpear]

I mean yeah, most progressives whining about this weren't old enough to remember when Obama burned through all his political capital on healthcare and then lost 63 seats in the House. Northam isn't even in that advantageous a position either.

Dems getting crushed in 2010 had little to do with healthcare. It was simply political gravity.

[libertpaulian]

Face it, Virginia is a centrist state at heart.  If the GOP hadn't gone so gung-ho on immigration and the culture wars, it would still be a red (Atlas blue) state today.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Face it, Virginia is a centrist state at heart.  If the GOP hadn't gone so gung-ho on immigration and the culture wars, it would still be a red (Atlas blue) state today.

It would still be blue because of NOVA. NOVA isn't just socially liberal, it's also economically liberal because a lot of their jobs... literally depend on the government. It's been trending blue since a while now (Kerry got fairly close in 2004 and Bush wasn't crazy about immigration).

[libertpaulian]

Face it, Virginia is a centrist state at heart.  If the GOP hadn't gone so gung-ho on immigration and the culture wars, it would still be a red (Atlas blue) state today.

It would still be blue because of NOVA. NOVA isn't just socially liberal, it's also economically liberal because a lot of their jobs... literally depend on the government. It's been trending blue since a while now (Kerry got fairly close in 2004 and Bush wasn't crazy about immigration).

Well, at the very least, it would be a truly purple state.  It isn't just NOVA.  Henrico County and the Tidewater are contributing to VA's blueness also.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This was a thread for the governor's race. If you want to talk about Northam and Medicaid expansion there is a thread for that at the General Discussion subforum.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway a straight up expansion with little-to-no strings attached like what happened in NY and CA would require significant tax increases considering our balanced budget amendment. I guarantee you 2019 won't be so friendly to Democrats if that weren't implemented perfectly.

Isn't 90% of the cost covered by the federal government?

[IceSpear]

Face it, Virginia is a centrist state at heart.  If the GOP hadn't gone so gung-ho on immigration and the culture wars, it would still be a red (Atlas blue) state today.

Yeah, everyone knows that Medicaid expansion is only supported by far leftists like Jan Brewer, John Kasich, Terry Branstad, Rick Snyder, Brian Sandoval, Steve Beshear, John Bel Edwards, Mike Beebe, and Earl Ray Tomblin.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Its over. Calling it now: rain has destroyed Northam in northern virginia, and also the competitive HOD races.  Gillespie wins by 2-3 points, and a very slight or none at all net gain for Democrats in the house.

#Throwback

[Landslide Lyndon]

WTF?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/969973106453426178

Our partners at MSNBC will be releasing a comprehensive analysis of Virginia 2017 turnout/vote history soon, but as a teaser - the electorate was actually older than it was in '13, '14, and '16 (29% over the age of 65).

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

WTF?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/969973106453426178

Our partners at MSNBC will be releasing a comprehensive analysis of Virginia 2017 turnout/vote history soon, but as a teaser - the electorate was actually older than it was in '13, '14, and '16 (29% over the age of 65).

Older than 16 makes sense, but older than 13 and 14? Huh?

[Skill and Chance]

If you had told me even 2 years ago that the VA House would agree to Medicaid expansion before the VA Senate did, I would have looked at you like you were insane.  That's how crazy the 2017 results were down ballot.

[LimoLiberal]

WTF?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/969973106453426178

Our partners at MSNBC will be releasing a comprehensive analysis of Virginia 2017 turnout/vote history soon, but as a teaser - the electorate was actually older than it was in '13, '14, and '16 (29% over the age of 65).

That defies all reason.