VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[IceSpear]

If Gillespie loses the race, I'm looking forward to some post-Ossoff-like handwringing from Republicans who got their hopes up.

Republicans have little to worry about if one or both of Northam and Murphy underperform Clinton.

[IceSpear]

No matter how many times we talk about the way Virginia reports the results, it's not going to stop the hand wringing lol. I look forward to all the doom prophecies when Gillespie is ahead with 1% in.

[IceSpear]

Northam by 2 is a pretty good result for Republicans - it shows that hard-on-immigration campaigns energize the GOP base but won't significantly alienate the Dem base to the point that it negates the edge.

2013 was a much better year for Republicans than it was now. What a hypothetical Dem operative wants to see is Northam up by like 9. That'd be somewhere near the national margin the Dems need to be playing with in order to have a home run midterm like some metric indicate.

Gillespie improving on Cuccinelli's margin in the shift in landscape would be nothing less than miraculous. This election (and how exactly Guadagno falls to Murphy) should give folks in the RNC a good idea whether to run on a national anti-sanctuary message in 2018.

Maybe the trick for Paul Ryan is to move a bit to the right on cultural issues.

You sound like a democrat after Ossoff lost.

Not really. Ossoff losing was bad for the Dems for the same reasons a 2 point Northam win or 10 point Murphy win would be bad for the Dems: a lack of ability to improve on Hillary's numbers in an election they lost overall, despite muh wave and the muh Hillary horrible candidate coping mechanism.

[IceSpear]

Northam by 2 is a pretty good result for Republicans - it shows that hard-on-immigration campaigns energize the GOP base but won't significantly alienate the Dem base to the point that it negates the edge.

2013 was a much better year for Republicans than it was now. What a hypothetical Dem operative wants to see is Northam up by like 9. That'd be somewhere near the national margin the Dems need to be playing with in order to have a home run midterm like some metric indicate.

Gillespie improving on Cuccinelli's margin in the shift in landscape would be nothing less than miraculous. This election (and how exactly Guadagno falls to Murphy) should give folks in the RNC a good idea whether to run on a national anti-sanctuary message in 2018.

Maybe the trick for Paul Ryan is to move a bit to the right on cultural issues.

You sound like a democrat after Ossoff lost.

Not really. Ossoff losing was bad for the Dems for the same reasons a 2 point Northam win or 10 point Murphy win would be bad for the Dems: a lack of ability to improve on Hillary's numbers in an election they lost overall, despite muh wave and the muh Hillary horrible candidate coping mechanism.

I think your overthinking it. Hillary was a good fit for NJ and Tim Kaine helped her margin in VA. Phil Murphy has the charisma of a card board box and the last 3 VA governors races have been competitive. Tomorrow nights performance doesn't have to mean much about whether there will or wont be a wave next year.

Yeah there's a way to spin everything.

Dems only lost 2016 because of Hillary (even though they failed across the board, many far worse than her)
Dems only lost KS/SC because they didn't pay attention.
Dems only lost GA because they paid too much attention.
Dems only lost MT because the Republican bodyslammed a reporter too late.
(Potential) Dems only lost VA because of <insert reason here>

But ultimately, when there's an actual wave, the beneficiaries of it aren't constantly spinning. They're too busy winning.

[IceSpear]

Harry Enten of 538 has pointed out several times that off-year gubernatorial elections aren't particularly predictive of subsequent Congressional results.  

This true, which is why the 30 or so special elections in 2017 showing Ds increasing 10-20% over the previous results are more compelling. Northam winning by the same margin as Hillary, or narrower, wouldn't invalidate those.

I think a high profile decent turnout statewide race is far more representative than extremely tiny abysmally low turnout state house races.

[IceSpear]

Anyone who doesn't vote because of rain probably shouldn't be voting to begin with.

[IceSpear]

My goodness with the bed wetting.

Just wait until the first few hours when Gillespie is winning big, lol. Get the popcorn ready!

[IceSpear]

Someone tell Dave to pitch an advertising deal with Xanax.

[IceSpear]

Its over. Calling it now: rain has destroyed Northam in northern virginia, and also the competitive HOD races.  Gillespie wins by 2-3 points, and a very slight or none at all net gain for Democrats in the house.

If Gillespie wins and Democrats try to explain that 'it rained', that will rank among the worst political lows of all time.

#RESIST*
#FIGHT FASCISM*

* - unless it rains

[IceSpear]

Even the rain is turning out for the GILL! Weak Democrats and globalists are afraid of the rain but real AMERICAN WORKERS will turn out and save the day!

Make your voice heard! Say NO to Trump Nov 7th!

Rain date: TBA

[IceSpear]

Well, I was going to vote to stop fascism, but I don't want to get mud on my birkenstocks. Guess I'll let fascism win instead. After all, isn't my Twitter activism more than enough?

[IceSpear]

Henrico update, the 40% did not include absentee voting

Did it rain so hard in Henrico that Northam votes were washed away in the ensuing floods?

[IceSpear]

Could Gillespie run in 2024 after he wins?

Toss up against President Ossoff.

[IceSpear]

The rain will create a hurricane with such force it will drag Guadagno into office with its mega coattails.

[IceSpear]

Trump's approvals seem higher than you'd expect

A lot of polls  had him in the 30s here

Which is why I've said multiple times you should actually include "undecided" in the approval rating.

[IceSpear]

How should republicans react to this race if Gillespie loses?

Should they be scared it means a storm is brewing in a a year?

Or should they say it was expected?

It doesn't mean anything for either side.

T-Mac won VA in 2013, and yet looked what happened to the Democrats next year during the mid-terms.

You could just as easily say 2005 and 2009 were good barometers. Also, T Mac narrowly won when he was supposed to have it in the bag. You could easily read that as an omen for what happened to Warner as well as the Dems nationwide in 2014.

[IceSpear]

When in gods name has 43/57 been good?

It's higher than his favorability rating on election day 2016.

[IceSpear]

If Gillespie wins or even comes within 3 points the Dems should just disband

A win is a win, no matter how narrow or wide.

Yeah, Maxine Waters winning re-election by 1 point would surely be worthy of celebration.

It's all about margins.

[IceSpear]

If Gillespie wins he can thank Racist VA Hicks.

[IceSpear]

Now Northam has no votes on NYT. Hugest landslide

Russia was a bit too transparent with their hacking this time.

[IceSpear]

Northam narrowly ahead in Chesterfield County, which was a Trump county. Would be yuge if it holds.

[IceSpear]

It's getting hard to see how Gillespie pulls this one out.

[IceSpear]

I would now project this for Northam. If Vogel holds a 2.5% lead at 30% in, I would call it for her.

Definitely not. Fairfax could easily save Fairfax.

[IceSpear]

NYT says 14% for Hyra in Fairfax

NYT is glitching a lot tonight. It's really annoying.

[IceSpear]

where are you guys seeing northam having a huge lead? so confused rn

It's not that he CURRENTLY has a huge lead, it's that he has a lead at all pre-Fairfax vote dump.