VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Virginia, is my signature size ok?

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

5-poll average after Emerson release:

Emerson: N+3
Siena: N+3
Trafalgar: N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie

Average: N+2.4

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Updated Average:

Monmouth: N+2
Fox: N+5
Quinnipiac: N+9
CNU: N+6
Emerson: N+3

Average: N+5.0

Northam can now withstand the entire 2013 polling error. Congrats to Gov. Northam.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Just saw the change research and polling Company releases. These release dates are so close together that I've decided to just have the average reflect all polls released today:

Polling Company: N+1
Change Research: N+6
Monmouth: N+2
Fox: N+5
Quinnipiac: N+9
CNU: N+6

Average: N+4.8

Northam still in an excellent position.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

From 538, we have the average result for each county out of the 2013 governor's race, 2014 senate race, and 2016 presidential race. Gillespie should aim to be consistently beating these averages:


GOP VOTE MARGIN RELATIVE TO STATEWIDE PERFORMANCE
LOCATION  2016 PRESIDENT  2014 SENATE   2013 GOVERNOR  AVG.

Accomack County   +17.0   +12.5   +14.3   +14.6
Albemarle County   -19.5   -11.2   -16.4   -15.7
Alleghany County   +42.2   -8.2   +11.3   +15.1
Amelia County   +42.0   +30.6   +32.5   +35.1
Amherst County   +35.6   +24.9   +29.9   +30.2
Appomattox County   +51.5   +39.6   +46.5   +45.9
Arlington County   -53.9   -42.8   -46.9   -47.9
Augusta County   +54.8   +45.7   +45.2   +48.6
Bath County   +47.2   +13.5   +26.8   +29.2
Bedford County   +54.4   +43.0   +48.6   +48.7
Bland County   +72.9   +42.2   +51.8   +55.7
Botetourt County   +52.7   +35.2   +41.8   +43.3
Brunswick County   -13.4   -21.5   -21.5   -18.8
Buchanan County   +65.6   +22.4   +40.0   +42.7
Buckingham County   +16.6   +6.6   +8.5   +10.6
Campbell County   +52.1   +41.7   +49.3   +47.7
Caroline County   +10.4   -4.0   -2.8   +1.2
Carroll County   +64.7   +33.7   +39.1   +45.9
Charles City County   -19.6   -29.8   -26.2   -25.2
Charlotte County   +28.1   +17.6   +22.5   +22.8
Chesterfield County   +7.5   +9.5   +10.3   +9.1
Clarke County   +25.0   +19.6   +14.6   +19.8
Craig County   +62.6   +28.7   +43.3   +44.9
Culpeper County   +30.5   +32.3   +30.6   +31.2
Cumberland County   +18.8   +8.9   +11.7   +13.2
Dickenson County   +61.2   +15.1   +29.9   +35.4
Dinwiddie County   +17.7   +3.9   +4.2   +8.6
Essex County   +7.5   +4.9   +5.9   +6.1
Fairfax County   -30.5   -16.7   -19.7   -22.3
Fauquier County   +29.8   +31.0   +27.3   +29.4
Floyd County   +42.5   +15.3   +27.6   +28.5
Fluvanna County   +14.6   +11.8   +7.9   +11.5
Franklin County   +47.2   +26.3   +34.7   +36.1
Frederick County   +40.3   +37.4   +35.5   +37.8
Giles County   +53.6   +23.8   +30.6   +36.0
Gloucester County   +44.6   +30.5   +29.8   +35.0
Goochland County   +30.2   +26.0   +25.1   +27.1
Grayson County   +62.8   +28.3   +37.5   +42.9
Greene County   +36.8   +31.7   +27.8   +32.1
Greensville County   -13.5   -26.5   -22.3   -20.8
Halifax County   +21.8   +6.7   +17.7   +15.4
Hanover County   +37.6   +33.3   +34.8   +35.3
Henrico County   -15.5   -12.3   -10.7   -12.8
Henry County   +34.4   +14.6   +28.1   +25.7
Highland County   +47.5   +27.6   +33.3   +36.2
Isle of Wight County   +25.8   +15.4   +16.5   +19.3
James City County   +10.4   +11.5   +11.5   +11.2
King George County   +22.4   +25.7   +28.0   +25.4
King and Queen County   +32.9   +3.4   +6.2   +14.2
King William County   +40.4   +27.4   +27.4   +31.8
Lancaster County   +15.1   +14.9   +15.3   +15.1
Lee County   +68.3   +29.4   +51.0   +49.6
Loudoun County   -11.6   +1.3   -1.9   -4.1
Louisa County   +29.8   +19.3   +21.0   +23.4
Lunenburg County   +22.8   +8.5   +11.7   +14.4
Madison County   +37.0   +28.8   +23.2   +29.7
Mathews County   +42.1   +28.3   +26.8   +32.4
Mecklenburg County   +18.7   +15.1   +18.3   +17.4
Middlesex County   +31.3   +23.8   +21.8   +25.7
Montgomery County   +4.0   -5.3   +0.1   -0.4
Nelson County   +10.9   -3.3   -1.4   +2.1
New Kent County   +42.7   +33.8   +33.2   +36.6
Northampton County   -4.0   -8.6   -9.2   -7.3
Northumberland County   +24.9   +17.4   +19.0   +20.5
Nottoway County   +18.4   +4.6   +6.1   +9.7
Orange County   +31.7   +23.3   +21.8   +25.6
Page County   +54.8   +40.3   +31.3   +42.2
Patrick County   +60.3   +35.4   +45.1   +47.0
Pittsylvania County   +44.4   +26.9   +36.8   +36.1
Powhatan County   +51.7   +44.7   +45.9   +47.5
Prince Edward County   +0.0   -6.5   -5.4   -4.0
Prince George County   +22.2   +16.6   +17.9   +18.9
Prince William County   -15.8   -2.1   -5.7   -7.9
Pulaski County   +45.9   +18.8   +29.1   +31.3
Rappahannock County   +22.9   +12.2   +9.6   +14.9
Richmond County   +28.9   +17.6   +22.5   +23.0
Roanoke County   +32.9   +22.2   +29.0   +28.1
Rockbridge County   +34.7   +15.8   +20.5   +23.7
Rockingham County   +49.6   +46.5   +44.3   +46.8
Russell County   +64.0   +23.9   +35.7   +41.2
Scott County   +71.3   +45.1   +56.2   +57.6
Shenandoah County   +48.3   +40.5   +35.1   +41.3
Smyth County   +60.2   +28.4   +36.7   +41.8
Southampton County   +21.6   +5.0   +8.1   +11.6
Spotsylvania County   +22.0   +22.5   +20.0   +21.5
Stafford County   +14.4   +19.5   +17.0   +17.0
Surry County   -5.4   -21.8   -19.8   -15.7
Sussex County   -11.1   -14.9   -15.2   -13.7
Tazewell County   +71.4   +46.3   +53.1   +57.0
Warren County   +42.1   +32.0   +28.0   +34.1
Washington County   +58.6   +36.2   +44.3   +46.4
Westmoreland County   +12.5   +3.4   +2.5   +6.2
Wise County   +67.2   +42.7   +46.1   +52.0
Wythe County   +59.9   +31.2   +40.3   +43.8
York County   +22.4   +21.0   +22.2   +21.9
Alexandria City   -52.8   -41.6   -46.5   -47.0
Bristol City   +48.8   +31.0   +33.3   +37.7
Buena Vista City   +35.9   +18.8   +26.5   +27.1
Charlottesville City   -61.2   -56.9   -57.7   -58.6
Chesapeake City   +6.6   +1.3   -0.6   +2.5
Colonial Heights City   +44.5   +47.0   +45.7   +45.8
Covington City   +23.5   -21.8   -3.6   -0.6
Danville City   -14.5   -16.1   -2.7   -11.1
Emporia City   -26.1   -25.0   -22.7   -24.6
Fairfax City   -25.1   -10.5   -14.3   -16.6
Falls Church City   -52.6   -44.7   -45.7   -47.7
Franklin City   -21.7   -22.7   -20.4   -21.6
Fredericksburg City   -21.0   -19.0   -19.5   -19.8
Galax City   +44.1   +14.1   +23.8   +27.4
Hampton City   -32.3   -38.0   -36.0   -35.4
Harrisonburg City   -16.7   -6.3   -9.3   -10.8
Hopewell City   -4.0   -3.7   +1.6   -2.0
Lexington City   -25.0   -30.8   -26.2   -27.3
Lynchburg City   +14.2   +12.9   +16.2   +14.5
Manassas City   -10.8   -0.6   +0.3   -3.7
Manassas Park City   -22.8   -7.9   -9.4   -13.4
Martinsville City   -18.1   -22.6   -6.7   -15.8
Newport News City   -21.3   -22.1   -21.7   -21.7
Norfolk City   -37.3   -39.1   -40.9   -39.1
Norton City   +49.0   +22.3   +18.1   +29.8
Petersburg City   -71.4   -76.1   -75.4   -74.3
Poquoson City   +53.9   +48.5   +46.6   +49.7
Portsmouth City   -31.0   -41.5   -39.5   -37.3
Radford City   +0.6   -6.0   -1.2   -2.2
Richmond City   -58.2   -54.0   -54.1   -55.4
Roanoke City   -13.7   -21.3   -15.6   -16.9
Salem City   +30.0   +17.7   +26.1   +24.6
Staunton City   +3.5   +1.3   -0.4   +1.5
Suffolk City   -6.9   -13.0   -10.8   -10.2
Virginia Beach City   +8.9   +5.9   +4.5   +6.5
Waynesboro City   +16.6   +15.9   +16.1   +16.2
Williamsburg City   -37.8   -27.5   -29.8   -31.7
Winchester City    +1.8   +5.1   +3.7   +3.6

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

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I implore the voters in Fairfax to stay home instead of braving the weather, so that Gillespie can win.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Sigh, looks like its going to rain for the rest of the day in Nova.

YES!!! SOME NORTHAM VOTERS STAY HOME, GILLESPIE HAS A SHOT!!!

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

^ Why do Gillespie's biggest surrogates have to be so stupid?

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Sigh, looks like its going to rain for the rest of the day in Nova.

YES!!! SOME NORTHAM VOTERS STAY HOME, GILLESPIE HAS A SHOT!!!

YES!!! DEMOCRACY IS SUBVERTED SO I CAN CONTROL WOMEN’S PRIVATES!!!

Just relax. Should Gillespie pull off the upset, he will be a great governor for Virginia.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Sigh, looks like its going to rain for the rest of the day in Nova.

YES!!! SOME NORTHAM VOTERS STAY HOME, GILLESPIE HAS A SHOT!!!

YES!!! DEMOCRACY IS SUBVERTED SO I CAN CONTROL WOMEN’S PRIVATES!!!

Just relax. Should Gillespie pull off the upset, he will be a great governor for Virginia.

Yeah, the man who ran on Confederate statues and race-baiting will be a fantastic governor.

While Northam ran on sanctuary cities and refused to condemn a PAC ad suggesting that Gillespie supporters attempt to run over latinos with their trucks.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

^ Why do Gillespie's biggest surrogates have to be so stupid?

You’re definitely first among equals when it comes to bad Gillespie surrogates.

I know when the election is occurring though. If Northam gets Warnered, I'm blaming Gillespie's loss on Don Jr.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

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Nice and low, at least so far. Hopefully it stays that way.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: DISTRICT 27 GOES TO THE DEMS

57% Larry Barnett DEM.    43%Roxann Robinson* REP.   23%


Current house count (includes safe seats for the incumbent party): Rep 41 Dem 32

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: DEMS TAKE DISTRICT 13

13    58%Danica Roem DEM.    42%Robert Marshall* REP.   35%

Count so far (includes races safe for the incumbent party): Rep 41 Dem 33

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: DEMS TAKE DISTRICT 10

58%Wendy Gooditis DEM.    42%Randall Minchew* REP.   33%

Count so far: Rep 41 Dem 34

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: DEMS TAKE DISTRICT 32

32    59%David Reid DEM.    41%Thomas Greason* REP.   88%

Count at Rep 41 Dem 35

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

How many HoD pickups? I think 10 is now solidly in the picture.

I've projected 4 so far: 27, 32, 10, 13

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: DEMS TAKE DISTRICT 2 AND DISTRICT 50

2    69%Jennifer Foy DEM.    31%Mike Makee REP.   57%

50    58%Lee Carter DEM.    42%Jackson Miller* REP.   81%

Count at Rep 41 Dem 37

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: DEMS HOLD DISTRICT 34

34    63%Kathleen Murphy* DEM.    37%Cheryl Buford REP.   29%

Count now at Rep 41 Dem 38

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Wow, Dems might pick up the 27th and 62nd districts... wave.jpg?

They've got the 27th. 62nd...maybe.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: DEMS HOLD 87 & 93:

87    62%John Bell* DEM.    38%Subba Kolla REP.   76%

93    58%Michael Mullin* DEM.    42%Heather Cordasco REP.   48%

Count at Rep 41 Dem 40

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: NORTHAM WINS

Ralph Northam
Democrat
586,031   50.7%   
Ed Gillespie
Republican
557,309   48.2   
Clifford Hyra
Libertarian
13,196   1.1

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: DEMOCRATS WIN DISTRICT 51

51    53%Hala Ayala DEM.    47%Richard Anderson* REP.   95%


Count is now Rep 41 Dem 41

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: REPUBLICANS HOLD DISTRICT 62

62    52%Riley Ingram* REP.    48%Sheila Bynum-Coleman DEM.   92%

Count is now Rep 42 Dem 41

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: DEMOCRATS TAKE DISTRICT 31

31    55%Elizabeth Guzman DEM.    43%Scott Lingamfelter* REP.   92%

Count is now Rep 42 Dem 42 (includes races agreed to be safe for the incumbent party)

This is what I've called so far:

Ds: 27,13, 10, 32, 2, 50, 34, 87, 93, 51, 31
Rs: 62