VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Below are the margins for the 2013 VA AG race at various % of polls reported which was decided by just 906 votes. This might give some idea of where ideally both candidates will want to be at margin wise throughout the night. Republican candidates will need to obv beat these margins and probably do so by at least a couple % points to feel secure; while Democrats can largely be content to match 2013 margins.

7% in Obenshain by 15%
9% in Obenshain by 15.8%
33% in Obenshain by 9.2%
61% in Obenshain by 6%
65% in Obenshain by 7%
90% in Obenshain by 2.1%
91% in Obenshain by 2.08%
93% in Obenshain by 2%
95% in Obenshain by 1.3%
97% in Obenshain by 1%
98% in Obenshain by 1.2%
99% in Obenshain by 0.8%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Around when do results start coming in tomorrow?

I believe traditionally around 7:20 est, though they are relatively slow coming in for the first hour before coming in significantly faster after that.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

At what % reporting did Hillary take the lead last year?

82%, though she lead in literally the first returns before Trump took a large lead.