VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Virginiá]

As the old thread has reached almost 2,000 posts, I am making this the new one for election day, as we are obviously going to go way over.

Link to old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=255866.0

I will add the links for relevant election pages / results as I find them. If anyone has them, feel free to post them here and I will add to this post.


Election results (non-VA too)

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-general-elections
---
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-jersey-general-elections
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/new-york-general-elections
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/utah-house-special-election
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/maine-ballot-measure-medicaid-expansion
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/ohio-ballot-measure-cap-drug-costs


Info on HoD races:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=264771.0
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/underneath-it-all-elections-for-the-virginia-house-of-delegates/


And on Miles' DDHQ page you can find a slew of Virginia stuff, including HoD race breakdowns:

https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/author/milescoleman/



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Note on oversized signatures: I really think it is absurd that this is even necessary, but there are some users on this forum who can't seem to keep their signatures at a reasonable height/width, and some who even obnoxiously keep their's as big as possible to annoy people. So here's the deal - if you want to post in any election threads next week, get rid of your huge signatures. Cut it way down to around the size of mine, maybe double it, give or take. Otherwise I will delete your posts, regardless of the content. Just because you can technically enter the code for a huge signature in the sig profile field doesn't entitle you to stretch out everyone's thread page when they are trying to follow election results here and participate in discussion about it.

So keep the signatures short. No exceptions.

[Virginiá]

What do you think is the biggest reason Northam hasn't been able to use trump's dreadful VA approval ratings to grow a bigger lead?

Gubernatorial elections already provide candidates with a way to escape some of the wrath voters have for the party that controls the White House/Congress, and it doesn't help the opposition party if their candidate is not a good campaigner to begin with. Northam isn't really exciting and he's not the best candidate, either. I think that may be one of the more simpler reasons for his underwhelming campaign.

Ideally a wave should be able to carry these people in anyway, and that may be what happens, but I think this is more likely to happen with offices that aren't as high-profile as the Governors race. Everyone knows these two candidates, as opposed to House, legislative or various row office candidates.

[Virginiá]

fhtagn vote Northam if only because it helps ensures neutral redistricting

Otherwise Gillespie and Republicans are no doubt planning to rig the maps in 2021 but also no doubt to gerrymander the state Senate map as soon as Gillespie worms his way into office next year (if he wins).

[Virginiá]

Not all states allow off-year redistricting (besides court mandated cases) - is VA one of those?

McAuliffe has already vetoed some HoD map tweaks. I don't for sure if Virginia's constitution prohibits it, but they seem to think it is ok.

[Virginiá]

Virginia, is my signature size ok?

Personally I would prefer it if you ditched one or two of the images but I'm not trying to do some strict enforcement here. It was mainly directed at people like Sparky and Bagel, where the signature is very obviously too big. The signature space is not supposed to be a whole new profile page under every post.

Is this whole Fhtagn thing a joke, or is she actually voting for Gillespie? I thought she was classier than that.

Doesn't matter. Change your signature.

[Virginiá]

@Old Liner: May you shrink that signature some please? Adding width=400 to the [img] tag would help a lot.

[Virginiá]

I think a high profile decent turnout statewide race is far more representative than extremely tiny abysmally low turnout state house races.

It's a useful measure of showing enthusiasm on top of potential swings. Democrats were consistently under-performing in special elections under Obama, and now it's like a sharp reversal and then some. Also, special elections taken individually aren't useful in predicting a midterm or presidential environment but taken in large groups they are reasonably useful.

Tomorrow the HoD races taken together will probably be the most useful predictor for 2018. People don't really know that much about their lawmakers, and the media gives most of its coverage to what Congress/the president is doing. This is why studies have shown these races, and other low-profile ones are where their opinions of the president and the ruling party tend to dominate. It's somewhat different for a single high-profile race like the gubernatorial one, where there is so much attention on it that it kind of becomes a thing unto itself. But even then, they are still affected by the political environment.

[Virginiá]

The real narrative is "Elections are semi-exciting, VA is close to the beltway, and we in the media are bored right now, so lets get some action"

I don't see how anyone in the media would be bored right now. It's been nothing but bombshells recently, between millions of documents of secret banking stuff and how Trump's cabinet is tied into it, or Mueller's indictments, mass shootings and so on.

[Virginiá]

okies main post updated with NYT results pages, HoD elections analysis and of course Miles' page which is a plethora of information on Virginia

[Virginiá]

okies main post updated with NYT results pages, HoD elections analysis and of course Miles' page which is a plethora of information on Virginia

Thanks! No results page for Maine?

np. It's on the tab bar of any of those NYT links, but I'll add them all to the main post I suppose.

[Virginiá]

@fluffypanther19: Can you cut your signature height by about 60% please? There are new rules for sig heights going into effect (read here) but as well as for the election threads and yours is too big for sure (you could solve it easily by removing the first image)

@PittsburghSteel: Can you check your PMs?

[Virginiá]

Isn't the regular Atlas meltdown scheduled for 8 or 9pm? Why so early?

[Virginiá]

EDWARD W. GILLESPIE  /  SlippingJimmy: Please cut your signature height in half, please. You can add width=400 (and remove height= part) to the [img] tag to do that.

[Virginiá]

Steve Kornacki‏ @SteveKornacki  18s18 seconds ago
Virginia exit (first wave) -- composition of electorate
White college degree 43%
White non-college 26%

'16 exit:
White college: 38%
White non-college 29%

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928025635787853825

To be expected, and probably good for Democrats. 538 / Wasserman had a nice piece showing how college educated whites could hurt Republicans pretty bad as they tend to be over-represented in midterms/other off-year elections as opposed to presidential elections, where more working class whites show up.

[Virginiá]

As Nate Cohen always like to remind us, whites with no degree are always under sampled in both regular polls and exits.

Probably, but it doesn't change the WWC dips in turnout in midterm/off-years vs presidential.

[Virginiá]

How should republicans react to this race if Gillespie loses?

Should they be scared it means a storm is brewing in a a year?

Or should they say it was expected?

If Northam somehow blew Gillespie out with a 10+ point win, sure. OR, if Democrats pick up like 8 or 10 seats in the HoD elections, yes, that should make Republicans panic, considering how stable the GOP's ~66 HoD majority has been. HoD races are where those generic poll disadvantages would really manifest themselves, and if Republicans are really down by like 8 - 10 points, it would cause a huge wave of losses in legislative races across the country in 2018.

[Virginiá]

Sorry I've been too distracted to see title requests changed altho I was thinking, it's still Utter Panic and Doom, just for Republicans now

Their HoD majority is going to take a huge blow, and good riddance Marshall.

[Virginiá]

I'll ask again, if Dems win the HoD, can they reverse the state's call for a constitutional convention? That's a big blow if they could.

Even if they win the HoD now, the state Senate is still 21-19 Republican, so it'd have to wait until at least Jan 2020, assuming they sweep the state Senate in 2019. If these results hold tonight, Democrats would be overwhelmingly favored in the state Senate, as things are not likely to get better for Republicans.

[Virginiá]

Let it be known that if Democrats win the HoD, it's a faint possibility they could flip a Republican state Senator to their party or get them to retire by promising a judicial position, since they could vote that person in via the legislature. Either that or get their vote on redrawing the HoD map. After all, Republicans only hold the state Senate by 1 seat (since lt gov breaks the tie).

VA Republicans could finally lose their status in the legislature long-term if Democrats win the HoD.

@heatcharger: what do you think of this idea?

[Virginiá]

@Shadows: can you please shorten your signature significantly? Like no taller than 40% of what it is now. Atlas has new signature rules, and it's way too big.

[Virginiá]

Virginia HoD is now at D+14, 2 more flips to take control and Ds lead in 2 uncalled seats still. This was believed to be impossible initially.

The idea that Democrats could win the HoD, even if by 50-50 (giving them a slim advantage), was insane before today. Massive swings and this many losing incumbents is extremely rare.

The last time Virginia saw a swing in seats this big was 1895.

[Virginiá]

The nice part is that even going into 2019, there should still be enough competitive districts for Democrats to make some gains. And if they can convince a Republican senator to go turncoat, they can completely redraw the HoD maps before 2019 - assuming the HoD is at least 50-50 in the end.

[Virginiá]

Democrats went to the Supreme Court to fight gerrymandering, right? So redrawing the map before 2019 would be pretty hypocritical.

I was just thinking a redraw in general. The current HoD map is a gerrymander for Republicans, which makes tonight's results so much more impressive. It fell apart.

Democrats would really just have to draw a neutral map to take it in 2019.

[Virginiá]

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

They might win the house of delegates, which they haven't done in 20 years.

Republicans can try to spin this, but the down the ballot numbers here are awful.

There is really no way to spin this result. This is a disaster for Republicans. This many incumbent lawmakers losing in a single election, this many seats, it just doesn't happen. At least not in Virginia. I stated above that the last time this many seats flipped at once was 1895. Republicans can't spin this.

Are the next set of district lines going to be enacted before the next gubernatorial election in 2021, or will the next governor get to oversee that?

It depends if Democrats can work some magic and get a Republican or two to go against their party. But if not, Democrats will either need to win the state Senate in 2019, and/or win the gubernatorial race in 2021, or hold the HoD.

Either way it's looking good that next redistricting will see at least neutral maps across the board.

JFern, no.

Berniecrats and Centrists won side by side, why can't you shut up and enjoy a victory?

It's amazing how negative this guy is. It's like all he can see in life.

[Virginiá]

@Bagel23: That signature is still way too big