VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Frodo]

If all goes well for Republicans this Tuesday, and they redistrict the Virginia Senate before elections on 2019, the most optimum partisan breakdown for them in that chamber is likely a 25:15 majority. 

It can't get any larger than that given how closely divided this state is. 

[Frodo]

The evening is still early, but I want to be the first to congratulate Ralph Northam on his likely victory tonight.  I was wrong about my prediction about Gillespie having a narrow win, and I'm glad I'm wrong.

It also looks like the full Democratic slate will win all statewide offices by the time all votes are counted, though by much narrower margins than Northam.  

[Frodo]

Northam 2020?

Maybe 2024 or 2028 if he does a really decent job as Governor.

He seems like more vice-presidential material, to me at least.  

[Frodo]

Well, get used to it Republicans.  This is what you get when you make a deal with the devil.

What?! Republicans have won nearly every other special election since Trump took office.

Consider this the turning of the tide.  

[Frodo]

Don't sh*t your pants next time, folks

After the past seven years, it's an understandable reaction for Democrats.  

[Frodo]

Also RIP Larry Hogan

The thought of Hogan going down fills me with glee, if only to spite all the smarmy Republicans who go to my college.

All I'm thinking is good news for Metro, and its search for permanent dedicated funding.  

Hey, I use it everyday...  

[Frodo]

Justin Fairfax and Mark Herring have narrow leads, BTW.....  

[Frodo]

Black turnout surged compared to estimates.

What were the numbers in Charlottesville?

Results not in yet.  

[Frodo]

Virginia, I think you can change the thread title now.

It can stay -it is an accurate depiction of the Republican mood tonight.  

[Frodo]

Trump is the Republican Party's Obama.

Don't insult Obama by tying him with that trash in the same sentence.  

[Frodo]

How did Tidewater and the Eastern Shore vote?  

[Frodo]

Someone please tell me how those shills over in Fox are reacting!

Tucker is very neutral, he's not too upset. He's not a Gillespie type of Republican, but he still "endorsed" him because he said (and I agree) that Northam is beyond awful with his racial dog whistling (see the Confederate Pickup ad).

Apparently that ad worked, or at least it can be spun that way.  It would be nice to have you be the brunt of all those racial dog whistles for a change.  And see how you like it.  

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/928111976676511745/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2F2017-election-live-coverage-results%2F

^^^ This is what should REALLY scare the GOP ^^^

Remember when Gen Zers were supposed to be the future for Republicans?

Trump fixed whatever GOP trend was emerging from them.

God bless him!

[Frodo]

Berniecrat Lee Carter defeated the Virginia House Republican Whip.

Oh right, Berniecrats can't win in Virginia.

Eternally bitter, lmao

I can somewhat understand his disappointment.  Just think, a moderate Democrat like Ralph Northam not only handily beats Tom Perriello (the Bernie candidate) for the nomination, but goes on to defeat Ed Gillespie by about 9 points in the general election.  Not only that, his victory carries the other statewide Democrats to the finish line, and might even win the House of Delegates (in Republican control for nearly twenty years) as well.

If you are a Bernie Bro hardliner like him who was counting on Northam either losing outright or barely winning to bolster his campaign of reshaping the Democratic Party in Bernie Sanders' image, it must be a bitter night indeed.  

[Frodo]

He appears to have won 58 districts.

Oh wow. This means that Democrats still have plenty of room to grow in the next election. There could be a clear majority by 2019.

Yes. In fact, it would be fair to say Democrats are favored to take back both the state Senate and HoD in 2019 if the election is even half as good as it was this week. They don't have over a dozen incumbents to take out next time around, and because those were almost all Clinton districts, they will be easier to keep. In many ways this was a massive correction on an over-extended GOP that got greedy in the last round  of redistricting.

As it stands now, there are a few Clinton districts and like a half dozen marginal Trump districts Democrats could make serious plays for. As soon as they take complete control, the HoD gerrymander comes down and there will probably be a slew of pro-voter reforms passed.

It would be nice if someone (DDHQ, perhaps?) could come up with a map showing partisan control district-by-district in the Virginia Senate, like we saw with the House of Delegates in the run-up to this Tuesday.