VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Tintrlvr]

I count 12 incumbent Republicans in the House of Delegates currently trailing in their reelection bids on WaPo's website (some of those are with just a few precincts in but others are well over 50% reporting). No incumbent Democrats are trailing. Did not look at open-seat races.

Edit: 13 incumbents trailing, was not counting Marshall because WaPo listed that race separately as a "Key Race".

[Tintrlvr]

Update: 14 incumbent Republicans currently trailing in their HOD reelection races. No incumbent Democrats are trailing. The Democrats also lead in one currently R-held seat where the Republican incumbent is not running for reelection. There are also a few potentially competitive races where no results are yet in. That puts the Democrats very close to potentially taking control of the Virginia House of Delegates, which would be pretty extraordinary.

[Tintrlvr]

How many HoD pickups? I think 10 is now solidly in the picture.

The House majority is in play

Didn't the prognosticators say that a Dem pickup below 5 would be a disappointment, 5-10 a strong possibility of a house pickup in 2018 and 10+ a gigantic 2010 like landslide (which I personally predict)

Currently seems like 10+ gains are almost certain based on outstanding numbers. Likely range is about +12 to +16 (+16 ties and gains control of the House of Delegates, for what it's worth, assuming Fairfax wins the LG race), which would be the best result for the Dems in the Virginia HOD since 1997.

[Tintrlvr]

If current results hold, the Democrats will gain 17 seats in the House of Delegates, enough for a 51-49 majority and their best result since 1993. For what it's worth, prognosticators were forecasting utter doom for the Republicans if the Democrats gained more than 10 seats.

[Tintrlvr]

So it's pretty much set the Democrats flipped the house of delegates?

No - although the Democrats are leading in enough races to flip it currently, a lot of those leads are narrow enough that they could still change, and only a couple of seats would need to move back to the Republicans for them to retain control. I'd say the Democrats are slightly favored to gain control at this stage but still very uncertain.

[Tintrlvr]

The Next Republican running in a swing state or leaning dem state should just tie himself to Bush 24/7 and their policies are similar to Bush not Trump. Bush is popular now

...No.

Ha. Yes, do that. It would be glorious.

[Tintrlvr]

Am I reading the map wrong or are the margins (relative to 2016) trending Republican in Alexandria and Richmond?

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam

Yes, this is true, but it has to be taken with a grain of salt. Northam is improving on Clinton in both places, but Gillespie is improving on Trump by more, so they are narrowly swinging Republican. These are the types of places that had a lot of solid very high income Republicans who voted for Johnson to whom Gillespie is more acceptable than Trump. But it has to be remembered that such areas are very unrepresentative of pretty much anywhere else.

[Tintrlvr]

Gillespie back up in Chesterfield County by 97 votes Hopefully the last precinct puts Northam over the top.

[Tintrlvr]

Actually, male turnout was higher than female turnout, right? Not the most common thing.

Probably just bad exit polls. Especially in states with significant black populations, male turnout higher than female never happens.

[Tintrlvr]

Actually, male turnout was higher than female turnout, right? Not the most common thing.

Probably just bad exit polls. Especially in states with significant black populations, male turnout higher than female never happens.

This is driven by white voters in the exit polls, black female turnout did beat black male turnout.

Badger, loving the Sharia explanation.

Yes, but the lean towards men among white voters, if it even actually exists, should not be enough to overcome the always larger difference in favor of black women over black men. It's just exit poll weirdness.