VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Alabama_Indy10]

Well, get used to it Republicans.  This is what you get when you make a deal with the devil.

What?! Republicans have won nearly every other special election since Trump took office.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Well, get used to it Republicans.  This is what you get when you make a deal with the devil.

What?! Republicans have won nearly every other special election since Trump took office.

They have held open seats, but haven't made any gains.

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Well, get used to it Republicans.  This is what you get when you make a deal with the devil.

What?! Republicans have won nearly every other special election since Trump took office.

They have held open seats, but haven't made any gains.

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

The New Jersey Governor is.

Republicans were going to lose New Jersey regardless.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

They might win the house of delegates, which they haven't done in 20 years.

Republicans can try to spin this, but the down the ballot numbers here are awful.

There is really no way to spin this result. This is a disaster for Republicans. This many incumbent lawmakers losing in a single election, this many seats, it just doesn't happen. At least not in Virginia. I stated above that the last time this many seats flipped at once was 1895. Republicans can't spin this.

Are the next set of district lines going to be enacted before the next gubernatorial election in 2021, or will the next governor get to oversee that?

It depends if Democrats can work some magic and get a Republican or two to go against their party. But if not, Democrats will either need to win the state Senate in 2019, and/or win the gubernatorial race in 2021, or hold the HoD.

Either way it's looking good that next redistricting will see at least neutral maps across the board.

JFern, no.

Berniecrats and Centrists won side by side, why can't you shut up and enjoy a victory?

It's amazing how negative this guy is. It's like all he can see in life.

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Well, get used to it Republicans.  This is what you get when you make a deal with the devil.

What?! Republicans have won nearly every other special election since Trump took office.

They have held open seats, but haven't made any gains.

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

The New Jersey Governor is.

Republicans were going to lose New Jersey regardless.

No, no, no. You're trying to have it both ways. How are we counting? Is it "flipping seats" or is it "winning races you're not favoured to win". You can't flip between metrics from case to case unless you're an idiot hack.

It's winning races. Period.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

They might win the house of delegates, which they haven't done in 20 years.

Republicans can try to spin this, but the down the ballot numbers here are awful.

There is really no way to spin this result. This is a disaster for Republicans. This many incumbent lawmakers losing in a single election, this many seats, it just doesn't happen. At least not in Virginia. I stated above that the last time this many seats flipped at once was 1895. Republicans can't spin this.

Are the next set of district lines going to be enacted before the next gubernatorial election in 2021, or will the next governor get to oversee that?

It depends if Democrats can work some magic and get a Republican or two to go against their party. But if not, Democrats will either need to win the state Senate in 2019, and/or win the gubernatorial race in 2021, or hold the HoD.

Either way it's looking good that next redistricting will see at least neutral maps across the board.

JFern, no.

Berniecrats and Centrists won side by side, why can't you shut up and enjoy a victory?

It's amazing how negative this guy is. It's like all he can see in life.

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

"all you said" doesn't make any sense. It's just spin.

What doesn't make sense about that?

[Alabama_Indy10]

Well, get used to it Republicans.  This is what you get when you make a deal with the devil.

What?! Republicans have won nearly every other special election since Trump took office.

They have held open seats, but haven't made any gains.

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

The New Jersey Governor is.

Republicans were going to lose New Jersey regardless.

No, no, no. You're trying to have it both ways. How are we counting? Is it "flipping seats" or is it "winning races you're not favoured to win". You can't flip between metrics from case to case unless you're an idiot hack.

It's winning races. Period.

So, then Democrats just won a lot didn't they? Like the New Jersey gubernatorial race. The Virginia one. The New York mayoral one.

No kidding.. I can give credit where it is due.. Democrats won big tonight. Just as Republicans won in GA 6th, KS 4th, MT-AL, SC 5th, and UT 3rd.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb hick is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

Are either of those statements false?

[Alabama_Indy10]

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb hick is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

Are either of those statements false?

No, obviously not so I guess you didn't understand how you were being stupid. Maybe you should read it again and try to think better.

Okay.. I'm being stupid by saying the truth.. Makes a whole lot of sense doesn't it?

[Alabama_Indy10]

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb hick is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

Are either of those statements false?

No, obviously not so I guess you didn't understand how you were being stupid. Maybe you should read it again and try to think better.

Okay.. I'm being stupid by saying the truth.. Makes a whole lot of sense doesn't it?

Well, see there are many truthful statements that constitute dumb answers. For example, if you're doing a test and the question is "what is 1+1" and your answer is "the capital of Australia is Canberra" you'd look like an idiot even though your answer is a true statement. And if someone gently hinted that you should rethink why you're being dumb and you insisted on doubling down you'd look even dumber. But sure, keep doing it.

Brilliant comparison man