VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[TheSaint250]

Steve Kornacki‏ @SteveKornacki  18s18 seconds ago
Virginia exit (first wave) -- composition of electorate
White college degree 43%
White non-college 26%

'16 exit:
White college: 38%
White non-college 29%

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928025635787853825

This could be some 2016 Republican non-voters, but we'll see how this shakes out.

[TheSaint250]

I dont trust early exit polls. Anybody remember the NY primary exit polls?

What did they say?

They under sampled NYC and showed a tied race between Hillary and Sanders.

If you remove superdelegates and apply a couple of algorithms to the delegate counts Sanders STILL has a chance at winning the primaries!!!

"Ralph Northam is the Democratic nominee in VA. Here's how Bernie can still win"

[TheSaint250]

What I'm interested in seeing is if a lower result for Hyra vs. Sarvis in 2013 will help Gillespie in the long run.

[TheSaint250]

Here we go. Gillespie win imminent.

https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/928043886039183362

I like how everyone in the comments is saying "Cue the Jeb! meme"

[TheSaint250]

Here we go. Gillespie win imminent.

https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/928043886039183362

I like how everyone in the comments is saying "Cue the Jeb! meme"

I wouldn't be surprised if he's just trolling and he's about to drop a Jeb! meme at 7.

Same

[TheSaint250]

In a way, I want the Jeb! meme to go away, but it's pretty funny, so I want it to stay.

[TheSaint250]

In the hypothetical scenario that Gillespie wins, would this be a bigger upset than 2016?

[TheSaint250]

NYT's projection is now Northam +4.2

[TheSaint250]

If Ed loses, he needs to blame Corey Stewart, not Donald Trump.

The model for Republicans winning VA was laid out by McDonnell. Run as a boring, economic-centric candidate, and hope that D's forget to turn out.

Stewart may have screwed him by going ape**** on culture issues during the primary.

If this margin of victory is so large to the point that Northam winning never should have been questioned, Stewart should have won the primary so as to lose and to discourage that kind of campaigning.

[TheSaint250]

Oh well

Time to move on

[TheSaint250]

CNN is still projecting this as an ultra close race.

They always stupidly hold out calls to keep viewers watching.

[TheSaint250]

Did we...did we actually win something?

What about those state legislature special elections?

[TheSaint250]

Well, get used to it Republicans.  This is what you get when you make a deal with the devil.

What?! Republicans have won nearly every other special election since Trump took office.

They have held open seats, but haven't made any gains.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/13/politics/special-elections-oklahoma-new-hampshire/index.html

[TheSaint250]

Vogel is Winning Virginia Beach by 10 points!

Vogel is definitely overperforming Gillespie in these key areas

Republicans should have run Vogel lol

[TheSaint250]

Too bad, but the rest of the night will be interesting, I guess

[TheSaint250]

Too bad, but the rest of the night will be interesting, I guess

This was suppose to be one of the most competitive races of the night. If even this is over within the first hour then the rest of the night should prove even less disputed.

I know, but I'm interested in seeing the NYC results and see if Guadagno too will underperform.  In addition, I am excited to see how Bennett will do in UT-03

[TheSaint250]

So a DSA-endorsed candidate won.

Huh.

[TheSaint250]

So a DSA-endorsed candidate won.

Huh.

That's more shocking than Northam winning in a rout, to me.

Same, especially since the candidate's opponent is the GOP House Whip.

[TheSaint250]

Apparently Rick Kriseman won in St. Petersburg already.

[TheSaint250]

Trump is the Republican Party's Obama.

[TheSaint250]

Trump is the Republican Party's Obama.

2018 will tell this really. Though up to this point Republicans have won most of the special elections so i wouldn't say he is really that bad for the party until we see some major losses in say a major election year like 2018.

However, Democrats did win specials in 2009, iirc. However, if the enthusiasm shown tonight continues, then 2018 might be an even larger wave than before.

[TheSaint250]

Trump is the Republican Party's Obama.

2018 will tell this really. Though up to this point Republicans have won most of the special elections so i wouldn't say he is really that bad for the party until we see some major losses in say a major election year like 2018.

However, Democrats did win specials in 2009, iirc. However, if the enthusiasm shown tonight continues, then 2018 might be an even larger wave than before.

It's not an enthusiasm gap that is causing this.  It's a disgust with the 'governing' party.

Yeah, they both tie in together

[TheSaint250]

I'll ask again, if Dems win the HoD, can they reverse the state's call for a constitutional convention? That's a big blow if they could.

lol a con-con won't be happening any time soon anyway.

[TheSaint250]

I'll ask again, if Dems win the HoD, can they reverse the state's call for a constitutional convention? That's a big blow if they could.

lol a con-con won't be happening any time soon anyway.

Republicans are trying to pass it right now in WI. They need that con-con to take away rights of minorities, and ban abortion/gay marriage all under the guise of a "balanced budget".

Ignoring the hottest #hottakes I've ever seen in my life, there aren't enough states now, and 2018 surely won't help bring a con-con anyway.

[TheSaint250]

This is freaking amazing lol.

This is what we get for embracing that Orange moron.

And since the party did it needs to be fully purged from any elected office.

yeah, because one party dictatorships truly make a great democracy