VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Oryxslayer]

fhtagn vote Northam if only because it helps ensures neutral redistricting

Otherwise Gillespie and Republicans are no doubt planning to rig the maps in 2021 but also no doubt to gerrymander the state Senate map as soon as Gillespie worms his way into office next year (if he wins).

Democrats would get one more shot in 2019 to win back the state senate.

They'd gerrymander it before 2019

Not all states allow off-year redistricting (besides court mandated cases) - is VA one of those?

[Oryxslayer]

We haven't gotten a final poll from The Polling Company yet, though.

Same with Monmouth.

[Oryxslayer]

Harry Enten of 538 has pointed out several times that off-year gubernatorial elections aren't particularly predictive of subsequent Congressional results. 

This true, which is why the 30 or so special elections in 2017 showing Ds increasing 10-20% over the previous results are more compelling. Northam winning by the same margin as Hillary, or narrower, wouldn't invalidate those.

True - The best predictor of 2018 in VA (as stated by many others previously) is the HoD races, and particularly their relation to the Gov margin. The HoD results will tell us how well dems could fare in districts that are slightly gerrymandered/formerly republican but now competitive. It will also tell us how willing people are to throw out incumbents. Finally, I will also show how many people are willing to split their ticket between the top and the downballot races. if Gillespie ends up willing, but Dems gain 6 or more seats in the HoD, I consider that a win. If Northam wins by a reasonable amount, but dems only gain those 6 seat - well that is a setback.

[Oryxslayer]

NYtimes results pages should show up here when they do:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/us/elections/election-calendar.html

[Oryxslayer]

Couple of weather reports - people should remember that voters could be heading to the polls early to escape the evening rain.

Roanoke: https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/USVA0659:1:US

Had showers earlier, and will probably get some later in the early evening.


Richmond: https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/USVA0652:1:US

Clear morning, strong rain in the evening.


Virginia Beach: https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/USVA0797:1:US

Clear morning, Showers showing up in the afternoon.


Fairfax: https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/22030:4:US

Had a clear morning, will be raining all day.

[Oryxslayer]

Just in case anyone didn't know - Today Ed Gillespie will either get the best or the worst birthday gift imaginable.

[Oryxslayer]

I don't recall the media doing wall to wall coverage on off year elections during the Obama years.

Scott Brown's win was only mentioned on the scroller on most news sites.

These people are desperate to push a narrative that a dem win in VA tonight spells doom for trump.

Oh they certainly did wall to wall in the past. Here is a clip of 2013 when CNN called VA for McAuliffe - note the constant use of John King and his maps/polls, the political panel, and the massive results screen. The only difference it seems, between this and regular midterms, is that there are commercial breaks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ize456kpqAo&t=89s

[Oryxslayer]

What is the pundit prediction for the 13th HoD district?

Check out the HoD page, I will try to be on top of the HoD race later today.

Pundit-wise, DDHQ says Lean D,  heatcharger says pure tossup, Kos says D Leaning Tossup, and cook/Sabato (old) say Tossup with a Dem advantage.

[Oryxslayer]

I suggest everyone check out the NYT page for VA Gov - they have an awesome statewide precinct map, something that will really help in telling where in the county precincts are reporting when counties are still tabulating results.

[Oryxslayer]

Voted in Virginia Beach around 1PM around 800 out of 5,000 in my precinct had voted so far, no lines was in and out.

Which part of Virginia Beach? North/Center/South

[Oryxslayer]

More on Arlington...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So at 3pm (2?) The solid D county passed 100% of 2013 - before people leave work around 5. Great new for Northam.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/927992774615617536

Fairfax county at 36.6% at 2pm.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/927992774615617536

Fairfax county at 36.6% at 2pm.

I believe we already had that number

didn't see, sorry.

[Oryxslayer]

Just to be certain, polls close at 7 or at 6?

7

[Oryxslayer]

Typical Atlas

[Oryxslayer]

I like this forum a lot. It is great for info and for interesting discussion about last and present political trends and events


But the Election Day threads are almost always complete cesspools of bellyaching, hair on fire paranoia, and unnecessary freak outs

[Oryxslayer]

Prince William at 32.5% of voters. No idea when they sent out this report.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/928008850413883394

[Oryxslayer]

First(?) report form the tidewater: Newport News at 24% turnout at 1pm.No idea with or without absentee, but probably without https://twitter.com/VotingGuy/status/928010256638251014

[Oryxslayer]

Leaked results from Caroline County:

Northam - 1,167
Gillespie - 1,284
Hyra - 193
Jeb! (Write-in) - 28,364

J E B M E N T U M

[Oryxslayer]

CNN reports dems are encouraged by NoVA turnout but worried about high SW VA turnout

I saw the same thing, thats not what they said. CNN said Dems are worried that there is not data from southwest, and fear a loss of votes there. Essentially, our fears over the past few hours.

[Oryxslayer]

2 minutes to go....

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder to everyone who might freak out, its totally natural for dems to be down until 80-90% of precincts reporting yet end up wining by strong margins.

[Oryxslayer]

should be coming any minute now!

Any minute.....

Any minute....

Any minute.....

[Oryxslayer]

Reminding people that I am updating the HoD forum post with calls.

[Oryxslayer]

Some competitive HoD races with significant margins in:

         D   R
HD 2: 80-20, 22%
HD 13: 58-42, 35%
HD 27: 56-44, 45%
HD 31: 53 - 45, 23%
HD 50: 54 - 46 31%
HD 51: 45 - 55, 18%
HD 62: 51 - 49, 23%
HD 68: 44-56, 24%
HD 72: 57-43, 18
HD 73: 53-48, 22%
HD 87: 44-56, 7%
HD 93: 61-39, 32%