VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I post one comment with some sarcasm and everyone loses their sh**t. Sad!

Dumb comment provokes a lot of responses calling it dumb. What a surprise!

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Who cares once the new VA state legislature starts passing legislation and Northam signs it all?

R's still control the Senate (21-19) so that won't happen for the next two years.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Who cares once the new VA state legislature starts passing legislation and Northam signs it all?

R's still control the Senate (21-19) so that won't happen for the next two years.

If the Democrats get the HoD, they are going to do everything to get one in the Senate to flip.

I doubt it. If the angle is to coax Republican senators in light-blue areas to vote with Democrats, I don't think that will ever work in the near future. We're so polarized that doing so means you lose the support of your base while the other side is still going to prefer a person from their own side. I'm very skeptical that the D's can exert a lot of leverage here.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/928111976676511745/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2F2017-election-live-coverage-results%2F

^^^ This is what should REALLY scare the GOP ^^^

It's almost as if nobody under the age of 30 cares about confederate monuments and went to school with enough Hispanic/non-white people to know that MS-13 is not a threat to them.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Here's your tentative swing map compared to 2013:

Yeah, the swings we saw in 2016 were definitely not a "one-time thing".

Politically, I've thought of Democratic NoVA as Fairfax, Prince William and Loudon plus the cities, while Fauquier, Stafford were transitioning. I'm very happy to see this trend continuing, and I'm actually a little surprised to see Jefferson and Frederick Counties also tracking D this cycle. I wasn't even aware that the NoVA growth had made it that far west in any significant numbers.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

tell that boy Scott Taylor to WATCH HIS BACK.

His challenger in 2016 was some lame Berniecrat who campaigned on nothing but her love of Sanders' personality. I knew as soon as I saw her website for the first time that she was going to get crushed by Taylor. I think if the Dems can nominate a veteran candidate in that race that they'd have around a 40% chance of taking it.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

4.) Turnout among counties--- anyone run comparative turnout numbers by County/City between '16/'17 to see what the numbers show?

This is obviously very scant (only for a few counties, in only statewide races, with 2013 as a benchmark instead of 2016) but here is a place to get initial ideas. Looks like turnout follows the trend you'd expect: way up in surburban, D-leaning areas (especially Fairfax environs).