VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Brittain33]

We haven't gotten a final poll from The Polling Company yet, though.

[Brittain33]

Harry Enten of 538 has pointed out several times that off-year gubernatorial elections aren't particularly predictive of subsequent Congressional results.  

This true, which is why the 30 or so special elections in 2017 showing Ds increasing 10-20% over the previous results are more compelling. Northam winning by the same margin as Hillary, or narrower, wouldn't invalidate those.

[Brittain33]

Dems only lost KS/SC because they didn't pay attention.

I don't think anyone says this. People credit Parnell's showing because the Dems didn't pay attention. Dems lost KS/SC because those seats are virtually impossible for Dems to win now unless it's 1894 or 1958, AND because it was too early in Trump's term for the failures to sink in with his base. That we came so close is useless if we want to win Congress through special elections in seats Trump chooses to make vacant, but pretty indicative of swings in closer seats that are all up for election next year.

[Brittain33]

Harry Enten of 538 has pointed out several times that off-year gubernatorial elections aren't particularly predictive of subsequent Congressional results.  

This true, which is why the 30 or so special elections in 2017 showing Ds increasing 10-20% over the previous results are more compelling. Northam winning by the same margin as Hillary, or narrower, wouldn't invalidate those.

I think a high profile decent turnout statewide race is far more representative than extremely tiny abysmally low turnout state house races.

Well, then you need to explain why earlier in the thread people are quoting stats of how unpredictive Virginia's governors races have been in the past.

One thing I remember very clearly from 2001 is how Mark Warner won narrowly while Republicans swept to much higher margins in the HoDs. A big part of that was redistricting, but it also showed that Republican support was as strong as ever 1 year into Bush's term.

[Brittain33]

Those Ben Tribbett tweets are fun to read but I can't let myself believe them.

[Brittain33]

According to Daily Kos he is a well known virignia political blogger

This is accurate, but these people can get excited, too. Looking at this recent tweet—how can he know this? "One other interesting thing- NOVA R base has always been nat security heavy (Pentagon, def contractors, CIA, etc). They dont seem R today."

[Brittain33]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trump won it 59%-34%.

[Brittain33]

The current thread name really nailed the attitude here.

I know, right? I was going to change it to something normal last night after the final set of polls, but I didn't and the community rose to the challenge.

[Brittain33]

For those freaking out about Tribbett's doom and gloom:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Which would be between 2 and 6 points, which is exactly what the polls said.

Im starting to think he is just a guy with connections who is enjoying trolling us all

No, he is excitable, always has been. Maybe he ate all his Halloween candy at once.

[Brittain33]

Fairfax is built out and pop. has grown like 3% since 2013, maximum. This is higher turnout.

[Brittain33]

Several news stories about Gillespie not resonating with SWVA and low attendance at his rallies, and early voting was lowest in the state there. It stands to reason. Even with his late dalliance with bigotry he's a horrible fit.

[Brittain33]

When was the last time a D won statewide by 10 points or more? I honestly have no idea. Chuck Robb in 1988, maybe? Northam winning by 9 would be unprecedented in modern Virginia.

[Brittain33]

Trump can be at 43%. The question is how many votes Gillespie can get from the remaining 57%, assuming he gets all the Trump votes.

[Brittain33]

When was the last time a D won statewide by 10 points or more? I honestly have no idea. Chuck Robb in 1988, maybe?

I think this counts, no?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2013

Not to mention Mark Warner in 2008.

Ok, fair points.

[Brittain33]

In the hypothetical scenario that Gillespie wins, would this be a bigger upset than 2016?

Based on the last two days of polls, it would be. It wouldn't be an upset in the sense that Gillespie is horribly unfit for office or basic human contact and people wouldn't really put him in office, would they?

[Brittain33]

Magical thinking by staffers prepping for a potentially rough night.

[Brittain33]

What sites are people on for results? NYT just set Northam to 0.

[Brittain33]

Unscientific study of VPAP, WAPO, and NYT has WAPO with the most current info.

[Brittain33]

Danica Roem would make me so very happy.

[Brittain33]

Wow, it was 9 points? I was actually just looking for the HoD PV info.

Someone on Twitter noted that there were a large number of uncontested D seats, much more than uncontested R seats, which inflates the totals. That said, knowing how gerrymandered the map is, I doubt there were many Republican votes to be had in an uncontested D seat in Richmond or Arlington.