VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The lastest version of this from Cinyc, made for last year's elections.

Virginia
State PVI:


Two Virginia counties and three independent cities are state PVI bellwethers.  Suburban Washington D.C. Loudoun County is by far the largest of the 5, and had the least trend.  Rural Nelson County, in between Charlottesville and Lynchburg in central Virginia, is the other county on the list.  The three independent cities are west-central Staunton, southwestern Radford and northern Virginia's Winchester.   Winchester city also only had a slight trend; the trend in the other three municipalities was moderate.

National PVI:


Because Virginia's PVI is even, Loudoun County, Nelson County and Radford city are also national PVI bellwethers.  Again, Loudoun County trended the least of the three.

Note that my state maps and dataset include both Bedford County and Bedford city.  Bedford city was dissolved at some point after the 2012 election.  The combined city and county have a state and national PVI of R+22.  (Bedford City was R+8; Bedford County was R+23).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I could be wrong about this, but it is worth keeping in mind that even in NoVA the most Republican precincts often report first. Gillespie was up big in Loudoun County in 2014 with 10% reporting or so, I believe.

I know that's the case for Prince William County. The big population bases and the Democratic strongholds are along I-95 and I-66, but the area in-between is more Republican and it reports first.

This is similar to what happens for Republicans in PA. I remember in 2010 a lot of people saw Sestak ahead in Crawford county and said that it meant that Toomey was doomed, but when the county was fully in, Toomey had won it 61%-35% or something like that. A lot of counties were like that and PA has the opposite progression with Dem areas coming first, even in Republican counties and then Republican precincts slowly start to eat away at the massive Dem lead statewide.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If Gillespie loses the race, I'm looking forward to some post-Ossoff-like handwringing from Republicans who got their hopes up.

And, I seem to remember an election 52 weeks ago today in which the Democratic candidate had had a bit of bad news which lead to the Republican candidate surging in the polls. Around the final weekend, the polls suggested that the Democratic candidate had stabilized her position with a small, but, significant and persistent lead. The Republican candidate won.

If Gillespie wins tomorrow, some folks are going to be howling at the moon a night early.

Bob, Virginia doesn't have an Electoral College....

Georgia did back in the day.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Remember when high turnout was good news last year for Dems? For all we know, a bunch of "responsible" GOP voters in NoVA who sat out 2013 because of The Crazy Cooch are showing up this year.

You seriously think Gillespie has a chance in Virginia? What happened to your "It's gone" posts?

But yeah, I'm not reading too much into turnout reports either, honestly.

Oh, I firmly stand by it being gone in presidential elections, which was the original context of those very accurate claims.

This is a different story: I also have a recurring narrative about awful NoVA types and how they're custom-made to defect and elect somebody like Gillespie in situations like this.

Virginia will vote R in 2020 when Cuomo is nominated by the dems tho

Cuomo is perfect for the NOVA crowd.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The rain is almost entirely in NoVA, rest of the state mainly seeing drizzle or likewise

Wrong thread, but that rain could impact the PA Supreme Court Races. Not that they will change the balance of power though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Rain doesn't depress GOP vote share, and it's definitely debatable that it really depresses either side's turnout in the modern day whatsoever; older data suggests a 1-3% net drop in Dem vote. Nevertheless, if rain in heavily-GOP areas is in fact depressing turnout, then why wouldn't it depress the Dem vote in those areas by more than the GOP vote?

So basically it makes Republican counties, more Republican by margin is what you are saying?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Virginia will vote R in 2020 when Cuomo is nominated by the dems tho

Nah, Cuomo will clear 60% in VA and will probably be only 1 of his 2 state wins

Is the other Texas?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Obama should have did more than one rally and not one weeks from the election.

Its way too early to be writing a post mortem for the Northam campaign dude.

Screaming all the way to finish line is the Atlas way.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So based on this thread either Northam has locked this up because turnout is super duper high and we can all have a parade or turnout is super duper low and Gillespie has this locked up. Probably actually a close tossup race as was suspected from the start and turnout is up across the State

Your reasoned analysis is getting in the way of the panicked stampede.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Jesus christ what's wrong with you people.

GET RELAXING MUSIC. 

You all need to learn to stop worrying and love the Vote.

referencing Dr. Strangelove is not going to help the situation.