VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[BudgieForce]

It'd be nice if democrats finally won something. Its getting a little demoralizing.

[BudgieForce]

Northam by 2 is a pretty good result for Republicans - it shows that hard-on-immigration campaigns energize the GOP base but won't significantly alienate the Dem base to the point that it negates the edge.

2013 was a much better year for Republicans than it was now. What a hypothetical Dem operative wants to see is Northam up by like 9. That'd be somewhere near the national margin the Dems need to be playing with in order to have a home run midterm like some metric indicate.

Gillespie improving on Cuccinelli's margin in the shift in landscape would be nothing less than miraculous. This election (and how exactly Guadagno falls to Murphy) should give folks in the RNC a good idea whether to run on a national anti-sanctuary message in 2018.

Maybe the trick for Paul Ryan is to move a bit to the right on cultural issues.

You sound like a democrat after Ossoff lost.

[BudgieForce]

Northam by 2 is a pretty good result for Republicans - it shows that hard-on-immigration campaigns energize the GOP base but won't significantly alienate the Dem base to the point that it negates the edge.

2013 was a much better year for Republicans than it was now. What a hypothetical Dem operative wants to see is Northam up by like 9. That'd be somewhere near the national margin the Dems need to be playing with in order to have a home run midterm like some metric indicate.

Gillespie improving on Cuccinelli's margin in the shift in landscape would be nothing less than miraculous. This election (and how exactly Guadagno falls to Murphy) should give folks in the RNC a good idea whether to run on a national anti-sanctuary message in 2018.

Maybe the trick for Paul Ryan is to move a bit to the right on cultural issues.

You sound like a democrat after Ossoff lost.

Not really. Ossoff losing was bad for the Dems for the same reasons a 2 point Northam win or 10 point Murphy win would be bad for the Dems: a lack of ability to improve on Hillary's numbers in an election they lost overall, despite muh wave and the muh Hillary horrible candidate coping mechanism.

I think your overthinking it. Hillary was a good fit for NJ and Tim Kaine helped her margin in VA. Phil Murphy has the charisma of a card board box and the last 3 VA governors races have been competitive. Tomorrow nights performance doesn't have to mean much about whether there will or wont be a wave next year.

[BudgieForce]

Northam by 2 is a pretty good result for Republicans - it shows that hard-on-immigration campaigns energize the GOP base but won't significantly alienate the Dem base to the point that it negates the edge.

2013 was a much better year for Republicans than it was now. What a hypothetical Dem operative wants to see is Northam up by like 9. That'd be somewhere near the national margin the Dems need to be playing with in order to have a home run midterm like some metric indicate.

Gillespie improving on Cuccinelli's margin in the shift in landscape would be nothing less than miraculous. This election (and how exactly Guadagno falls to Murphy) should give folks in the RNC a good idea whether to run on a national anti-sanctuary message in 2018.

Maybe the trick for Paul Ryan is to move a bit to the right on cultural issues.

You sound like a democrat after Ossoff lost.

Not really. Ossoff losing was bad for the Dems for the same reasons a 2 point Northam win or 10 point Murphy win would be bad for the Dems: a lack of ability to improve on Hillary's numbers in an election they lost overall, despite muh wave and the muh Hillary horrible candidate coping mechanism.

I think your overthinking it. Hillary was a good fit for NJ and Tim Kaine helped her margin in VA. Phil Murphy has the charisma of a card board box and the last 3 VA governors races have been competitive. Tomorrow nights performance doesn't have to mean much about whether there will or wont be a wave next year.

Harry Enten of 538 has pointed out several times that off-year gubernatorial elections aren't particularly predictive of subsequent Congressional results.  Writing recently about Virginia specifically:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hence why this "if Northam doesn't do well, democrats won't do well in 2018" talk is downright annoying.

[BudgieForce]

Northam by 2 is a pretty good result for Republicans - it shows that hard-on-immigration campaigns energize the GOP base but won't significantly alienate the Dem base to the point that it negates the edge.

2013 was a much better year for Republicans than it was now. What a hypothetical Dem operative wants to see is Northam up by like 9. That'd be somewhere near the national margin the Dems need to be playing with in order to have a home run midterm like some metric indicate.

Gillespie improving on Cuccinelli's margin in the shift in landscape would be nothing less than miraculous. This election (and how exactly Guadagno falls to Murphy) should give folks in the RNC a good idea whether to run on a national anti-sanctuary message in 2018.

Maybe the trick for Paul Ryan is to move a bit to the right on cultural issues.

You sound like a democrat after Ossoff lost.

Not really. Ossoff losing was bad for the Dems for the same reasons a 2 point Northam win or 10 point Murphy win would be bad for the Dems: a lack of ability to improve on Hillary's numbers in an election they lost overall, despite muh wave and the muh Hillary horrible candidate coping mechanism.

I think your overthinking it. Hillary was a good fit for NJ and Tim Kaine helped her margin in VA. Phil Murphy has the charisma of a card board box and the last 3 VA governors races have been competitive. Tomorrow nights performance doesn't have to mean much about whether there will or wont be a wave next year.

Yeah there's a way to spin everything.

Dems only lost 2016 because of Hillary (even though they failed across the board, many far worse than her)
Dems only lost KS/SC because they didn't pay attention.
Dems only lost GA because they paid too much attention.
Dems only lost MT because the Republican bodyslammed a reporter too late.
(Potential) Dems only lost VA because of <insert reason here>

But ultimately, when there's an actual wave, the beneficiaries of it aren't constantly spinning. They're too busy winning.

I'm not spinning anything. Hillary overperformed polls in NJ and Tim Kaine is a popular sitting senator from VA. It's not hard to put 2 and 2 together about either state.

[BudgieForce]

I voted. We should have an "I voted today" thread.

[BudgieForce]

Fairfax too:

Vote Fairfax City @VoteFairfaxCity
As of 8 a.m. 1,365 voters have marked their ballots in today's election. With absentee, that's more than 15.2% #Election2017

https://twitter.com/votefairfaxcity/status/927885831221719040

I sense a trend...

Keep in mind that Fairfax City is tiny in comparison to the county.

I'm interested in what the turnout in Tidewater looks like. The race is almost certainly over if Northam does unusually well there for a Democrat.

Never read into early reports of turnout

BUT WHAT R WE SUPPOSED TO DO ALL DAY!? /s

[BudgieForce]

If Gillespie loses the race, I'm looking forward to some post-Ossoff-like handwringing from Republicans who got their hopes up.

And, I seem to remember an election 52 weeks ago today in which the Democratic candidate had had a bit of bad news which lead to the Republican candidate surging in the polls. Around the final weekend, the polls suggested that the Democratic candidate had stabilized her position with a small, but, significant and persistent lead. The Republican candidate won.

If Gillespie wins tomorrow, some folks are going to be howling at the moon a night early.

Bob, Virginia doesn't have an Electoral College....

The RCP polling average for Virginia, and Michigan was what again???

Uh, 5% Hillary lol plz wipe your butt

Is he insinuating Hillary underperformed in VA because she most certainly did not.

[BudgieForce]

Would be funny if Quinnipiac is the most accurate pollster. Probably won't happen but...

[BudgieForce]

Sigh, looks like its going to rain for the rest of the day in Nova.  I think Northam still pulls it out in the end but a margin of 3.5-4% at the most to just 2-2.5% with the rain.

I'm not sure how it is in California, but most people in the United State can handle getting alittle wet.

[BudgieForce]

People with jobs won’t be staying home because of rain.

It's not about staying home, it's about staying in line. At minimum, that cuts into people with jobs who forgot an umbrella.

Is it that common for lines to be out the door in Virginia?

[BudgieForce]

Can someone please explain to me why a state that voted for Hillary by 6 points has the magnifying class of America on it?

Aside from wanting to see your side win, this is (probably) not at all useful to extrapolate onto 2018 trends

We've got nothing better to do I.M.O.

[BudgieForce]

I don't recall the media doing wall to wall coverage on off year elections during the Obama years.

Scott Brown's win was only mentioned on the scroller on most news sites.

These people are desperate to push a narrative that a dem win in VA tonight spells doom for trump.

I remember a ton of coverage about Scott Brown's "shocking" win. It was 7 years ago though.

[BudgieForce]

Voted in Virginia Beach around 1PM around 800 out of 5,000 in my precinct had voted so far, no lines was in and out.

I'm guessing that's more good news for Northam... seeing as Trump won the county.

I think your reading too much into these turnout reports. If 2016 taught us anything, its that turnout reports come back to bite you in the ass.

[BudgieForce]

People dont melt guys. And I might be from NJ, but we have similar weather today and its not that bad.

[BudgieForce]

Its like, light showers. Cold and rainy =/= hurricane.

[BudgieForce]

Obama should have did more than one rally and not one weeks from the election.

Its way too early to be writing a post mortem for the Northam campaign dude.

[BudgieForce]

Petersburg is heavily AA city turnout may not even match 2013 levels, this is a disaster.

Are you seriously doing this?

[BudgieForce]

Isn't the regular Atlas meltdown scheduled for 8 or 9pm? Why so early?

WHAT ELSE R WE SUPPOSED TO DO?! /s

[BudgieForce]

This thread has convinced me that the healthiest thing to do between now and 7:00 is to read for a bit, have a bite to eat, take a nap, and avoid all electronics.

Honestly, the healthiest thing to do is to come back tomorrow when we know who won and by how much.

[BudgieForce]

Everyones talking about freak outs but its basically just henster.

[BudgieForce]

Pretty soon all the working people will soar to the polls and Gillespie will take the lead.

But no results have come in yet? No ones leading anything yet?

[BudgieForce]

Its over. Calling it now: rain has destroyed Northam in northern virginia, and also the competitive HOD races.  Gillespie wins by 2-3 points, and a very slight or none at all net gain for Democrats in the house.

If Gillespie wins and Democrats try to explain that 'it rained', that will rank among the worst political lows of all time.

Its not even raining that hard.

[BudgieForce]

Whats the point of releasing exit polling data collected before the post 5 voting rush?

To make Henster and Limoliberal have panic attacks.

[BudgieForce]

Nate Cohn says the Sienna poll also has Trump at -12.