VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Holmes]

From Nate Cohn's twitter, the METER is back

Dead heat.

[Holmes]

Bristol, VA at 15% at 11:15

Seems a bit low?

[Holmes]

Bristol, VA at 15% at 11:15

Seems a bit low?

If a heavily Trump town is lower at 11:15 than heavily Dem Richmond is at 10 am that would be something. Still skeptical it means much.

It could mean something if surrounding SW VA areas have equally bad turnout. Just gotta wait and see.

[Holmes]

Judging by Bosse's turnout tracker, turnout is abysmal in GOP areas and better in Democratic areas.

That's what it looks like but we need more data points to really know. Also some places report ED+EV whereas others just report ED turnout so it's hard to compare.

[Holmes]

Judging by Bosse's turnout tracker, turnout is abysmal in GOP areas and better in Democratic areas.

Not enough reports coming from the rural areas to really know.

Turnout was 15% at 11 in Bristol (was 15.2% in Charlottesville and Fairfax at 9:00) and Isle of Wight County was at only 25% at noon.

Yeah, but there are a lot more Republican areas in Virginia than that.

[Holmes]

How much of that is due to simple population growth?

This is % turnout, not raw number of votes.

[Holmes]

A story going around social media is Northam is being helped by downballot races

Wouldn't be surprised.

[Holmes]

I wish these turnout reports would specify if they include absentees or not.

[Holmes]

Northam ahead by 20% in Loundoun is wow.

Bye Comstock.

[Holmes]

Bad night for Virginia Republicans.

Down 20 in Loundoun.

Losing Virginia Beach.

Only up 0.4% in Chesterfield.

HoD majority in danger.

[Holmes]

Northam loses two counties by 0.1% - Nelson and Caroline.

[Holmes]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: DEMOCRATS WIN DISTRICT 51

51    53%Hala Ayala DEM.    47%Richard Anderson* REP.   95%


Count is now Rep 41 Dem 41

Nice for Ayala!

[Holmes]

So it's pretty much set the Democrats flipped the house of delegates?

Wait and see.

[Holmes]

The Next Republican running in a swing state or leaning dem state should just tie himself to Bush 24/7 and their policies are similar to Bush not Trump. Bush is popular now

Oh...no...

[Holmes]

CHESTERFIELD FLIPPED

[Holmes]

Looks like Gillespie will hold onto Chesterfield with 1 precint outstanding, but wow, what a bad showing.

[Holmes]

Looks like all of Gillespie's votes are in. Whatever's remaining will pad Northam's margin.

[Holmes]

Yeah, ExtremeRepublican's been posting.

krazen tho...

[Holmes]

Brucer Rauner, Charlie Baker, and Larry Hogan are probably quaking in their boots right now, especially Bruce.

Hogan should be sweating. Rauner should already be packing his things. Baker isn't in any serious danger, though.

[Holmes]

Have absentees been counted yet?

[Holmes]

The nice part is that even going into 2019, there should still be enough competitive districts for Democrats to make some gains. And if they can convince a Republican senator to go turncoat, they can completely redraw the HoD maps before 2019 - assuming the HoD is at least 50-50 in the end.

Democrats went to the Supreme Court to fight gerrymandering, right? So redrawing the map before 2019 would be pretty hypocritical.

[Holmes]

Turns out the winning coalition for Democrats is still moderates and progressives and you guys better learn to work together come 2019.

At least nothing can be as horrible as how the Republican caucus has governed, but still.

[Holmes]

I post one comment with some sarcasm and everyone loses their sh**t. Sad!

You forgot to close your sarcasm tag.

[/sarcasm]

[Holmes]

Democrats, it will be your only victory, Moore will win widely in Alabama and this "victory" will be forgotten

Who cares once the new VA state legislature starts passing legislation and Northam signs it all?

[Holmes]

I am disappointed, but not surprised, that "THE GOP IS DOOMED AND DEAD FOREVER" has already become the mantra of many on Atlas.

Just 7 hours ago, Northam was doomed.