VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Badger]

If Gillespie loses the race, I'm looking forward to some post-Ossoff-like handwringing from Republicans who got their hopes up.

Greedo will likely either be going off on everyone or *crickets chirp*

Krazen too. But he gets so little pleasure living in his parents basement instead of going to work, I can't blame him.

[Badger]

Pretty soon all the working people will soar to the polls and Gillespie will take the lead.

Funny coming from the only Forumite with more trouble holding a job than Bushie.

[Badger]

I know a handful of Obama 2012 Trump 2016 voters personally. Of course, it's just a handful of people in Ohio. I actually get the impression he's really well liked up here compared to places like Colorado or Virginia.

Trump seems to do well in the blue collar states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan) whereas I think more upscale whites in Virginia and Colorado will be a problem for him. Florida I have no clue.

As I've been saying for a couple of years now, Virginia is basically gone for the GOP. Atleast in the short-term.

I noticed the difference between upscale white, more socially conscious voters in places like Virginia and Colorado and downscale white, less politically correct voters in places like Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan. Pennsylvania has a little of both.

I've found this demographic very, very fascinating since I've been harping on it for years and it ended up being the decisive forgotten votes that propelled Trump to the White House.

I think two things have big factors with these voters:

1. Money
- For anyone of my friends or family, even those of us who make good money for white working class Americans, in order to move to a state like Colorado or Virginia, especially a nice place, we would need a significant amount of money. This tells me that many of these white voters in Virginia and Colorado are actually quite well off, perhaps more college degrees. This could also allow them to embrace more of a social justice agenda than people like myself and many in the Midwest since our focus is still on economics.

2. Class
- To be honest, the things that "shocked" all those yoga-training career oriented 28 year old college educated women in a place like Prince William County didn't really have an impact in a place like Lake County, OH or Macomb County, MI. I think political correctness is a much, much bigger issue once you don't have finances to worry about and if you have much more college education.

Nevertheless, I find these white voter differences very interesting as they will be useful in predicting elections in the future.

Even when once in a blue moon you make correct political analysis, you can't help sounding like a complete doltish dick doing so.

This also explains my none of those 28 year old yoga teachers will ever ever ever sleep with you, nor any of their friends.

One last note, I assure you that income levels are going to skew Democratic lower you go, so you can take the blue collar man chip off your white power shoulder.

[Badger]

I know everyone implicitly understands that Northam's big victory was powered by backlash in the suburbs, but I feel like the county results haven't gotten the attention they deserve. Like these Northam vote %'s are just insane:

Fairfax: 68%
Arlington: 80%
Alexandria: 78%
Loudoun: 60%
Prince William: 61%
Albemarle: 64%
Henrico: 60%
Chesterfield: 49% (!!!)

Hell even Stafford: 47%

That is a wipeout of epic proportions for the Republican Party. RINO Toms will make excuses saying the demographics of these areas have changed, and that is undoubtedly true. But they haven't changed that much from 2014, where Gillespie did very well in these areas, and they certainly haven't changed that much from 2016, where Trump actually did better than Gillespie did last night in these areas.

This is why I think it's laughable that people have said Hillary Clinton was a "perfect fit" for upscale, (white) college-educated suburbs. Put up a candidate who doesn't inspire massive levels of vitriol and someone who is affable like Ralph Northam, and these areas are ready to vote Democratic big league. Hand-wringing left-wingers need to get the memo too.

But aren't several of these counties, particularly Chesterfield which you highlight, heavily Suburban?

[Badger]

Tidbit I noticed in the exit polls: 37% of the electorate are married men and 30% were married women. So that means 7% of the voters (at least) were married men whose wives didn't vote? Is that a normal thing? It just sounds a little odd to me. Like, "bye, honey I'm off to vote, watch the kids!" ?

VA men are increasingly marrying women from D.C. and Maryland.

I just made that up, but I don't know how else to explain that discrepancy. Exit polls are often flawed though.

It's the creeping expansion of Sharia-following polygamist Muslims in NoVa. Duh!

[Badger]

I don't know what the hand ringing is about. Rural Virginia is overwhelmingly White, and the fact northrim perform this well in the roar areas is something of a Triumph. There are few States outside of maybe Vermont and to a lesser degree New Hampshire Main in Massachusetts where rural voters are going to be as demonstrable liberal.

The city's plus suburbs plus not getting out early annihilated in rural areas is a pretty effective electoral electoral strategy in most States. The big problem for Democrats is that Suburban portion mostly unravels south of the Mason-Dixon