VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Gustaf]

Berniecrat Lee Carter defeated the Virginia House Republican Whip.

Oh right, Berniecrats can't win in Virginia.

hahahahahahahahahaha

[Gustaf]

Well, get used to it Republicans.  This is what you get when you make a deal with the devil.

What?! Republicans have won nearly every other special election since Trump took office.

They have held open seats, but haven't made any gains.

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

The New Jersey Governor is.

Republicans were going to lose New Jersey regardless.

No, no, no. You're trying to have it both ways. How are we counting? Is it "flipping seats" or is it "winning races you're not favoured to win". You can't flip between metrics from case to case unless you're an idiot hack.

[Gustaf]

JFern, no.

Berniecrats and Centrists won side by side, why can't you shut up and enjoy a victory?

3 out of 4 Our-Revolution candidates won in NJ, one beat the GOP Whip. Our-Revolution candidates went 7 for 7 in Somerville, Mass. Krasner is the new DA, multiple DSA folks won.

And Northan & Murphy both won comfortably. Good night for Democrats, for centrists & progressives. Bad night for Trump & conservatives. Nothing to be an unhappy about for anyone.

It's pretty surprising to me that there can't be a deal, formal or not, where Berniecrats get to run in safe seats and in return back moderates in swing seats.

[Gustaf]

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

They might win the house of delegates, which they haven't done in 20 years.

Republicans can try to spin this, but the down the ballot numbers here are awful.

There is really no way to spin this result. This is a disaster for Republicans. This many incumbent lawmakers losing in a single election, this many seats, it just doesn't happen. At least not in Virginia. I stated above that the last time this many seats flipped at once was 1895. Republicans can't spin this.

Are the next set of district lines going to be enacted before the next gubernatorial election in 2021, or will the next governor get to oversee that?

It depends if Democrats can work some magic and get a Republican or two to go against their party. But if not, Democrats will either need to win the state Senate in 2019, and/or win the gubernatorial race in 2021, or hold the HoD.

Either way it's looking good that next redistricting will see at least neutral maps across the board.

JFern, no.

Berniecrats and Centrists won side by side, why can't you shut up and enjoy a victory?

It's amazing how negative this guy is. It's like all he can see in life.

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

"all you said" doesn't make any sense. It's just spin.

[Gustaf]

Well, get used to it Republicans.  This is what you get when you make a deal with the devil.

What?! Republicans have won nearly every other special election since Trump took office.

They have held open seats, but haven't made any gains.

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

The New Jersey Governor is.

Republicans were going to lose New Jersey regardless.

No, no, no. You're trying to have it both ways. How are we counting? Is it "flipping seats" or is it "winning races you're not favoured to win". You can't flip between metrics from case to case unless you're an idiot hack.

It's winning races. Period.

So, then Democrats just won a lot didn't they? Like the New Jersey gubernatorial race. The Virginia one. The New York mayoral one.

[Gustaf]

Virginia is not a gain for the D's.

They might win the house of delegates, which they haven't done in 20 years.

Republicans can try to spin this, but the down the ballot numbers here are awful.

There is really no way to spin this result. This is a disaster for Republicans. This many incumbent lawmakers losing in a single election, this many seats, it just doesn't happen. At least not in Virginia. I stated above that the last time this many seats flipped at once was 1895. Republicans can't spin this.

Are the next set of district lines going to be enacted before the next gubernatorial election in 2021, or will the next governor get to oversee that?

It depends if Democrats can work some magic and get a Republican or two to go against their party. But if not, Democrats will either need to win the state Senate in 2019, and/or win the gubernatorial race in 2021, or hold the HoD.

Either way it's looking good that next redistricting will see at least neutral maps across the board.

JFern, no.

Berniecrats and Centrists won side by side, why can't you shut up and enjoy a victory?

It's amazing how negative this guy is. It's like all he can see in life.

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

"all you said" doesn't make any sense. It's just spin.

What doesn't make sense about that?

All of it?

[Gustaf]

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb hick is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

[Gustaf]

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb hick is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

Are either of those statements false?

No, obviously not so I guess you didn't understand how you were being stupid. Maybe you should read it again and try to think better.

[Gustaf]

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

Are either of those statements false?

No, obviously not so I guess you didn't understand how you were being stupid. Maybe you should read it again and try to think better.

Okay.. I'm being stupid by saying the truth.. Makes a whole lot of sense doesn't it?

Well, see there are many truthful statements that constitute dumb answers. For example, if you're doing a test and the question is "what is 1+1" and your answer is "the capital of Australia is Canberra" you'd look like an idiot even though your answer is a true statement. And if someone gently hinted that you should rethink why you're wrong and you insisted on doubling down you'd look even more incorrect. But sure, keep doing it.

[Gustaf]

I can't say I buy this rural area thing so much.

1. You can adapt. Saying Manchin is in trouble because Northam didn't do well in SWV makes no sense because Northam ran a campaign suited to winning Virginia, Manchin will run one for West Virginia. It'll obviously be very different.

2. Rural areas aren't necessarily favoured outside of the Senate. If D waves can lead to some un-gerrymandering they will hold much less sway.

3. In the long term, the future of the US in raw population terms is clearly in urban and suburban areas, not rural ones. Clinging to rural West Virginia probably isn't the way to win national majorities over the coming decades.

[Gustaf]

I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.

Whether or not you know it you're still doing it. No realistic scenario would have Democrats winning all special elections or most, not unless they are all in competitive districts. The point is there has been a huge reversal from under Obama to the tune of 11 or 12 points. And with the Virginia House of Delegates, this is a massive seat flip that hasn't happened in over a century. Democrats didn't even come close to flipping this many before 2006 or 2008. It's hard to knock off incumbents, let alone this many.

And yes VA gov is not a gain for Democrats but there are only 2 Governorships up tonight. The real story was always in the HoD races, and numerous people (Sabato for instance) and myself have been saying that for a while. If Republicans were in good shape they would not have just lost a 16+ member house majority in one night.

What shows him being a dumb hick is simultaneously explaining away the VA win as "not a flip" AND the NJ win as "not surprising". It's classic shifting of goalposts.

Are either of those statements false?

No, obviously not so I guess you didn't understand how you were being stupid. Maybe you should read it again and try to think better.

Okay.. I'm being stupid by saying the truth.. Makes a whole lot of sense doesn't it?

Well, see there are many truthful statements that constitute dumb answers. For example, if you're doing a test and the question is "what is 1+1" and your answer is "the capital of Australia is Canberra" you'd look like an idiot even though your answer is a true statement. And if someone gently hinted that you should rethink why you're being dumb and you insisted on doubling down you'd look even dumber. But sure, keep doing it.

Brilliant comparison man

Well, it't not really a comparison. I just explained how a comment can be stupid even if it's true. I guess, ironically, you still didn't get it.

[Gustaf]

Tidbit I noticed in the exit polls: 37% of the electorate are married men and 30% were married women. So that means 7% of the voters (at least) were married men whose wives didn't vote? Is that a normal thing? It just sounds a little odd to me. Like, "bye, honey I'm off to vote, watch the kids!" ?

[Gustaf]

Tidbit I noticed in the exit polls: 37% of the electorate are married men and 30% were married women. So that means 7% of the voters (at least) were married men whose wives didn't vote? Is that a normal thing? It just sounds a little odd to me. Like, "bye, honey I'm off to vote, watch the kids!" ?

VA men are increasingly marrying women from D.C. and Maryland.

I just made that up, but I don't know how else to explain that discrepancy. Exit polls are often flawed though.

Yeah, I guess it could just be off. Though part of my reaction here is that I would have thought most married couples would vote together (my parents certainly do) which would also make it less likely you'd just missample them as an exit pollster.

The DC/Maryland thing makes some sense though. If men are more likely to earn more or something and NOVA is richer maybe? Or it's the alt-right voters not letting their womens vote.

[Gustaf]

Actually, male turnout was higher than female turnout, right? Not the most common thing.

Probably just bad exit polls. Especially in states with significant black populations, male turnout higher than female never happens.

This is driven by white voters in the exit polls, black female turnout did beat black male turnout.

Badger, loving the Sharia explanation.

[Gustaf]

So, when will we know the HoD result?