VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Yank2133]

If Gillespie loses the race, I'm looking forward to some post-Ossoff-like handwringing from Republicans who got their hopes up.

And, I seem to remember an election 52 weeks ago today in which the Democratic candidate had had a bit of bad news which lead to the Republican candidate surging in the polls. Around the final weekend, the polls suggested that the Democratic candidate had stabilized her position with a small, but, significant and persistent lead. The Republican candidate won.

If Gillespie wins tomorrow, some folks are going to be howling at the moon a night early.

Bob, Virginia doesn't have an Electoral College....

The RCP polling average for Virginia, and Michigan was what again???

Uh, 5% Hillary lol plz wipe your butt

Is he insinuating Hillary underperformed in VA because she most certainly did not.

Given Tim Kaine was on the ticket, and, Trump pulled out of Virginia while Romney did not, Hillary Clinton underperformed in Virginia badly.

lmao, what a load of nonsense.

Against a normal Republican, she would have won by the same margin Obama did in 2012. She over performed if anything.  

[Yank2133]

What are the reports coming from R areas?

[Yank2133]

Sigh, looks like its going to rain for the rest of the day in Nova.

YES!!! SOME NORTHAM VOTERS STAY HOME, GILLESPIE HAS A SHOT!!!

YES!!! DEMOCRACY IS SUBVERTED SO I CAN CONTROL WOMEN’S PRIVATES!!!

Just relax. Should Gillespie pull off the upset, he will be a great governor for Virginia.

Shut up, you don't live here.

[Yank2133]

Can someone please explain to me why a state that voted for Hillary by 6 points has the magnifying class of America on it?

Aside from wanting to see your side win, this is (probably) not at all useful to extrapolate onto 2018 trends

Because Pundits are itching to use VA, regardless of who wins, to push their preferred narrative.

[Yank2133]

Can someone confirm to me: is dwarves dragon a troll or are his views all over the place?

Worse: he’s a centrist

lol

[Yank2133]

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There were only 41,214 voters for Governor in 2013. So Alexandria is already at 78.9% of 2013.

Damn, that is encouraging.

[Yank2133]

turnout may be up in fairfax county but i've saw about 5 times more gillepsie signs than northam signs there. turnout being up is actually huge for gillepsie.

same with charloettesville. the silent majority doesn't want their confederate statues (history) taken down by radical leftists.

Northern Virginia is not the same culturally as rest of the state

Also remember when Ted cruz won md and pa in the primary he had more signs than trump......

He is being sarcastic.

[Yank2133]

I don't recall the media doing wall to wall coverage on off year elections during the Obama years.

Scott Brown's win was only mentioned on the scroller on most news sites.

These people are desperate to push a narrative that a dem win in VA tonight spells doom for trump.

It is actually the opposite.

They want D's to lose so beltway pundits and bad faith lefties can keep pushing the "Democrats are in disarray" narrative.

If Northam wins, I doubt you will hear anyone trying to say this means Trump is doom, after all he didn't win VA in the first place.

[Yank2133]

I don't recall the media doing wall to wall coverage on off year elections during the Obama years.

Scott Brown's win was only mentioned on the scroller on most news sites.

These people are desperate to push a narrative that a dem win in VA tonight spells doom for trump.

It is actually the opposite.

They want D's to lose so beltway pundits and bad faith lefties can keep pushing the "Democrats are in disarray" narrative.

If Northam wins, I doubt you will hear anyone trying to say this means Trump is doom, after all he didn't win VA in the first place.

The real narrative is "Elections are semi-exciting, VA is close to the beltway, and we in the media are bored right now, so lets get some action"

Normally, I would agree with this take. But there has been a ton of concern-trolling of Democrats by beltway pundits.

[Yank2133]

A story going around social media is Northam is being helped by downballot races

Wouldn't be surprised.

Yeah.

VA Dems had a great year in terms of recruitment.

[Yank2133]

A story going around social media is Northam is being helped by downballot races

Has to be, because he certainly wasn't helping himself much.

Northam has ran the typical VA Democratic campaign. I don't get why people think what he is doing is any different then how any Democrat have done since 2008.

[Yank2133]

I call BS on lower then expected turnout in NOVA. Everything points to the exact opposite so far.

[Yank2133]

Y'all I've been hearing nothing but good news for Northam. High turnout in cities and NOVA with decent weather. Depressing turnout in SWVA with crappy weather. I feel like he's going to pull off a 6 point win tonight.

Meh, I think he wins by 3-4 points.

[Yank2133]

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[Yank2133]

More on Arlington...

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[Yank2133]

More on Arlington...

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So at this time there have already been more votes casted in 2017 than 2013?

Yeah, Arlington has surpassed 2013 numbers already and it isn't even 4 yet. I have a sister up there, and they usually see a rush of voters after 5 pm.

So this is encouraging news for Democrats.

[Yank2133]

Virginia will vote R in 2020 when Cuomo is nominated by the dems tho

Nah, Cuomo will clear 60% in VA and will probably be only 1 of his 2 state wins

Is the other Texas?

New York.

And that is only because his opponent would be Donald Trump.

[Yank2133]

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I mean....like no ****.

[Yank2133]

Leaked results from Caroline County:

Northam - 1,167
Gillespie - 1,284
Hyra - 193
Jeb! (Write-in) - 28,364

Well-played.

[Yank2133]

Ideology: 28- Liberal 39- Moderate 33-Conservative
Income:  23- under 50K 32 50-100K 45- 100K+
Most Important Issue: 37- Health Care 17- Guns 14- Immigration 14- Taxes

Medicaid expansion....

[Yank2133]

Steve Kornacki‏ @SteveKornacki  18s18 seconds ago
Virginia exit (first wave) -- composition of electorate
White college degree 43%
White non-college 26%

'16 exit:
White college: 38%
White non-college 29%

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928025635787853825

This could be some 2016 Republican non-voters, but we'll see how this shakes out.

Yeah, I was just about to say. Trump was a terrible fit for the state last year, so some college educated R's may have voted for Clinton or simply not vote at all.

[Yank2133]

So this is indeed looking like 2013 redux?

Yeah, a 2-3% Northam win is probably the most likely outcome.

I'm kind of thinking 5-6 still.

Anywhere from Northam +8 to Gillespie +2 is about what I think is reasonable.

Anything from Gillespie +10 to Northam +10 wouldnt surprise me.

+10 for Ed would surprise me

[Yank2133]

How should republicans react to this race if Gillespie loses?

Should they be scared it means a storm is brewing in a a year?

Or should they say it was expected?

It doesn't mean anything for either side.

T-Mac won VA in 2013, and yet looked what happened to the Democrats next year during the mid-terms.

[Yank2133]

When was the last time a D won statewide by 10 points or more? I honestly have no idea. Chuck Robb in 1988, maybe?

Yeah, Northam ceiling is about 6-7 points.

Besides off-year governor elections don't have much correlation with mid-term elections.

[Yank2133]

Man we might see a a Northam Vogel team

This would be something VA would do lol.