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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginia)
  Most likely Republican nominee in 2024 (November 2017)
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Poll
Question: Who do you think is the most likely Republican nominee in 2024?
#1
Mike Pence
 
#2
Marco Rubio
 
#3
Ted Cruz
 
#4
Scott Walker
 
#5
Tom Cotton
 
#6
Ben Sasse
 
#7
Nikki Haley
 
#8
Paul Ryan
 
#9
Someone else currently in Congress/statewide elected position
 
#10
Someone else
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 123

Author Topic: Most likely Republican nominee in 2024 (November 2017)  (Read 12626 times)
Orser67
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« on: November 06, 2017, 05:13:07 pm »

Obviously I don't think anyone could make this prediction with any degree of certainty. I'm mostly interested in who people currently think are the "brightest young Republican stars" as a Politico article might put it.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2017, 05:23:55 pm »

It's really impossible to guess at this point ... I'm going to guess a 2020 re-election loss for President Trump leads to a Haley nomination, but who knows?
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TexArkana
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2017, 06:10:52 pm »

I'm thinking that if Trump wins a second term, the GOP field in 2024 likely won't be that strong or have many high-profile names. Think about it, after 8 years of a GOP President as unpopular and divisive as Trump is, the Democratic nominee would be virtually guaranteed to win by a substantial margin, and a lot of potential candidates might sit it out and wait for 2028 or 2032.  
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2017, 07:56:16 pm »

As far as "rising stars" that might be major players in 2024, one really sticks out in my mind:  Missouri Governor Eric Greitans.  If he's reelected in 2020, then 2024 will coincidence with the end of his second-term as governor - perfect timing for a Presidential run.  He'll be relatively young (only 50 in 2024), he's unabashedly conservative, Jewish, a former Navy SEAL and Rhodes Scholar, and (based on what I've seen so far) might be the perfect Republican to bridge the South/Midwest and Trump/religious right divides.  He's all the advantages of Pence x10, plus youth, without the Trump baggage.

The only way this guy isn't a GOP nominee one day is through some sort of major self-inflicted wound.   
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beaver2.0
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« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2017, 11:14:47 am »

Tim Scott.
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dw93
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« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2017, 01:07:49 pm »

Pence if he wants it. If Trump loses in 2020 and the Dem that beats him is half way decent, Pence will be a Republican Walter Mondale. If Trump is re elected, Pence will be the Al Gore to Trump's Bill Clinton, the Nixon to Trump's Eisenhower, or the Humphrey to Trump's LBJ. If not, it's anyone's guess.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2017, 04:01:00 pm »

It pretty much has to be Pence, because you have to consider the odds that 1. Trump gets reelected, in which case he is the clear favorite.  2. Trump retires or resigns and Pence wins in 2020, in which case he would be a 1st term incumbent.  3.  Trump loses in 2020 and Pence pulls a Mondale in 2024.

When you add that all up, he has to be the most likely.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #7 on: November 08, 2017, 05:25:21 pm »


lolno
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LeRaposa
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« Reply #8 on: November 08, 2017, 06:48:57 pm »


There is a zero chance the Republican Party would nominate a Black man. It's sad but it's the truth.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2017, 09:54:00 pm »

Justin Amash, Mia Love(esp. if she’s elected Senator or Governor), Will Hurd(if he becomes Senator in 2020), Tim Scott, Eric Greitens(if re-elected), George P. Bush(if elected Governor in 2022), Carlos Curbelo(if elected Governor or Senator in 2022), Erin Stewart(if she’s ever elected Governor - 2018 or 2022), Charlie Baker, Ben Sasse... The list goes on and on. Personally, I think a Erin Stewart/Tim Scott ticket sounds pretty good.
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Orser67
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« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2017, 03:22:21 am »

It pretty much has to be Pence, because you have to consider the odds that 1. Trump gets reelected, in which case he is the clear favorite.  2. Trump retires or resigns and Pence wins in 2020, in which case he would be a 1st term incumbent.  3.  Trump loses in 2020 and Pence pulls a Mondale in 2024.

When you add that all up, he has to be the most likely.

Agreed. I guess I should have said "aside from Pence."
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mvd10
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2017, 02:41:08 pm »

Pence. Cotton and Haley also are strong possibilities.
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Orser67
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« Reply #12 on: November 13, 2017, 12:56:48 am »

Aside from Pence, I think Cotton is best positioned for 2024. He'll be 47 years old and will have served 2 years in the House and 9+ years in the Senate; so he'll (theoretically) have experience/knowledge but won't necessarily have the career politician stigma. He also served in combat duty in both Afghanistan and Iraq; as far as I know, no other major candidate has combat experience.

Most importantly, I think he's done the best job of straddling the wings of the Republican Party. He's generally been supportive of Trump but also seems to be a defense hawk and hasn't (afaik) alienated the establishment. Nor has he pissed off his colleagues like Cruz or made a fool of himself on national television like Rubio (though I do think Rubio could bounce back from that one day).
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2017, 11:33:16 am »

I voted 'someone else'. In my view, the most likely scenario (though not close to 50% probability) is Trump unseated in 2020 and his Democratic replacement remaining relatively popular. I would imagine it would be a 1992-type thing, in which the more serious contenders would wait for 2028.
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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2017, 05:00:33 pm »

If Trump wins in 2020 (or if he decides not to run for reelection) Pence is the natural favorite. Being Trump's VP makes him acceptable to the Trump base, his experience in Washington makes him establishment approved, and his social conservatism is popular with evangelicals who voted for Cruz. He's the ultimate generic republican.

Other notes: Despite this site's weird obsession with her, Nikki Haley will never be a major national republican. She picked the wrong side of the culture war when she tore down the confederate flag and doubled down on attacking Trump even after the primaries were over. Tom Cotton on the other hand is a rising star. He's strong on immigration. Even if it doesn't pass, a national debate on the RAISE Act (the first real attempt to overhaul legal immigration since Hart Cellar in 1965) would propel him into the spotlight. While he has a conservative voting record, he isn't prone to antics like Cruz's government shutdown, hasn't really made any gaffes that I know of, and it doesn't hurt that he's a veteran. I expect him to run eventually and I also expect Cruz and Rubio to run again. The GOP built up a lot of young talent during the Obama years and democrats desperately need to do likewise now (midterms traditionally favor the party not in the white House).
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MB
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« Reply #15 on: November 28, 2017, 12:16:58 am »

As far as "rising stars" that might be major players in 2024, one really sticks out in my mind:  Missouri Governor Eric Greitans.  If he's reelected in 2020, then 2024 will coincidence with the end of his second-term as governor - perfect timing for a Presidential run.  He'll be relatively young (only 50 in 2024), he's unabashedly conservative, Jewish, a former Navy SEAL and Rhodes Scholar, and (based on what I've seen so far) might be the perfect Republican to bridge the South/Midwest and Trump/religious right divides.  He's all the advantages of Pence x10, plus youth, without the Trump baggage.

The only way this guy isn't a GOP nominee one day is through some sort of major self-inflicted wound.   
Greitens is a tolerable version of Mike Pence. Since he'll be term-limited in 2024 I think he goes for the nomination.
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Ritchie Valens
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« Reply #16 on: December 01, 2017, 07:39:59 am »

Eric Greitans
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TexArkana
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« Reply #17 on: December 01, 2017, 10:11:18 am »

Why are Richard Spencer and Roy Moore not on here? Whether the Atlas RINO's are in denial about it or not, that is the future of their party Smiley
We haven't got to a point where the GOP base is insane enough to nominate someone that extreme for President... yet.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #18 on: December 01, 2017, 11:27:02 am »

Why are Richard Spencer and Roy Moore not on here? Whether the Atlas RINO's are in denial about it or not, that is the future of their party Smiley
We haven't got to a point where the GOP base is insane enough to nominate someone that extreme for President... yet.

Haha they nominated Donald Trump last year but people are still in denial about their base being drawn to the most retarded person running in the primary

For all of your insinuations about how uncivilized, intolerant and generally classless Republicans are, you use this word in a degrading manner an awful lot.  Anyway, even though I know you are being somewhat hyperbolic to be funny and/or make a point, there is a clear difference between those two and President Trump.  Trump was able to appeal to several different types of Republicans.  Many people liked him for many different reasons, and his status as a "straight talk" celebrity was incredibly effective.  Richard Spencer is not overly interesting unless you are a White supremacist, and - as bad as you might think the GOP base is - most Republicans are not open White supremacists, whatever their prejudices might be.  A racist Republican would much rather vote for a "dog whistle" candidate (as liberals assert things like cutting welfare or being tough on crime are ... I think those are dubious, politically motivated claims, but that is besides the point) than someone who openly espouses intolerance proudly.  Trump does this, but I do not believe that is his PRIMARY appeal to Republicans (at least not during the primary season, which is the topic of discussion here).  Roy Moore is having trouble in Alabama, so the odds he can convince Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire that he should be President when there will be other candidates with just as ridiculous views as he who aren't accused of being pedophiles are pretty small.  Additionally, even if 2016 fundamentally changed the coalitions needed to win the Presidency and redefined "what it means to be a Democrat/Republican," it's a simple matter of mathematics that the electorate that got Romney nominated was not THAT fundamentally different than the one that got Trump elected.  That is FAR from a defense of Republican primary voters (let alone a compliment of them), but people are acting like 2012 Republicans were just a fundamentally different group than 2016 Republicans, and that's ridiculous.  You could argue that Republican primary voters "showed their true colors" in 2016, but all that means is that they are intolerant, terrible people at their core (in your eyes), not that they will only vote for openly intolerant candidates (as evidenced by their election of Romney four years earlier).

I predict that Trump is going to lose very badly in 2020, and the 2018/2020 midterms will serve as a real wakeup call to Republicans.  I don't think that wakeup call will usher in this idealistic "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" party many allege that I yearn for, but I DO think it will result in a less xenophobic, less folksy GOP in favor of a "classier populism" - a party that will be more restrained than the Democrats and not reckless with your money/traditions, but certainly looking out for "people like you."  I doubt this happens in 2018 in time to stave off defeats across the board, and I suspect Trump runs again in 2020 ... but 2024 is several years away.  We'll see, though! Smiley
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Maverick J-Mac
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« Reply #19 on: December 01, 2017, 05:32:23 pm »

I've always wanted to see Scott Walker be our nominee.  He seems like he'd make a good president. 
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JGibson
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« Reply #20 on: December 03, 2017, 03:04:27 am »

As far as "rising stars" that might be major players in 2024, one really sticks out in my mind:  Missouri Governor Eric Greitans.  If he's reelected in 2020, then 2024 will coincidence with the end of his second-term as governor - perfect timing for a Presidential run.  He'll be relatively young (only 50 in 2024), he's unabashedly conservative, Jewish, a former Navy SEAL and Rhodes Scholar, and (based on what I've seen so far) might be the perfect Republican to bridge the South/Midwest and Trump/religious right divides.  He's all the advantages of Pence x10, plus youth, without the Trump baggage.

The only way this guy isn't a GOP nominee one day is through some sort of major self-inflicted wound.   
I agree with this. Had Hillary won in 2016, I believe Missouri Gov. Greitens would've been a major (on paper) candidate in 2020 for the GOP. 
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TexArkana
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« Reply #21 on: December 07, 2017, 12:07:32 pm »

If I had to guess, Haley or Greitens, but a lot will change between now and then
I'm not sure the same GOP electorate that nominated Trump is going to nominate Nikki Haley.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #22 on: December 07, 2017, 01:52:28 pm »

If I had to guess, Haley or Greitens, but a lot will change between now and then
I'm not sure the same GOP electorate that nominated Trump is going to nominate Nikki Haley.

And I wasn't sure that the same GOP electorate that nominated Romney would nominate Trump.

Yes, they were mostly the same.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #23 on: December 07, 2017, 02:21:57 pm »

If I had to guess, Haley or Greitens, but a lot will change between now and then
I'm not sure the same GOP electorate that nominated Trump is going to nominate Nikki Haley.

And I wasn't sure that the same GOP electorate that nominated Romney would nominate Trump.

Yes, they were mostly the same.
I'm not saying they weren't the same, I'm saying these people are, perhaps, evolving.
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« Reply #24 on: December 07, 2017, 02:22:54 pm »

If I had to guess, Haley or Greitens, but a lot will change between now and then

lmao
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