Congressman Frank LoBiondo is retiring

[IceSpear]

Its pretty bad for NJ republicans to go from 6-6 to 8-4 in the congressional delegation.

Could easily be 10-2 or even 11-1(!) depending on how the seats fall. Tge Demcratic party thanks the republicans for their dummymander.

No way does Frelinghuysen lose.

Despite being Appropriations Committee Chairman, he may decide to just retire rather than risk ending his career with an upset loss if the numbers don't look good.

The thing is, Trump was the worst possible Republican for that district and still carried it. It reeks of GA-06. Except even worse, because they'd be running against a long time established incumbent with a dominant cash advantage.

[Bojack Horseman]

D+1

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Its pretty bad for NJ republicans to go from 6-6 to 8-4 in the congressional delegation.

Could easily be 10-2 or even 11-1(!) depending on how the seats fall. Tge Demcratic party thanks the republicans for their dummymander.

No way does Frelinghuysen lose.

I actually think Frelinghuysen's probably a goner.

[Brittain33]

Its pretty bad for NJ republicans to go from 6-6 to 8-4 in the congressional delegation.

Could easily be 10-2 or even 11-1(!) depending on how the seats fall. Tge Demcratic party thanks the republicans for their dummymander.

No way does Frelinghuysen lose.

I actually think Frelinghuysen's probably a goner.

Is he the one who got a woman fired for complaining to him, or was that Lance?

This tax bill could destroy him and Lance both, IMO. It is beyond toxic for their core R voters who love to complain about their $18,000 annual property tax bills (and that is before income tax.)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Its pretty bad for NJ republicans to go from 6-6 to 8-4 in the congressional delegation.

Could easily be 10-2 or even 11-1(!) depending on how the seats fall. Tge Demcratic party thanks the republicans for their dummymander.

No way does Frelinghuysen lose.

I actually think Frelinghuysen's probably a goner.

Is he the one who got a woman fired for complaining to him, or was that Lance?

This tax bill could destroy him and Lance both, IMO. It is beyond toxic for their core R voters who love to complain about their $18,000 annual property tax bills (and that is before income tax.)

That's Frelinghuysen, plus he's getting really badly out-raised.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Its pretty bad for NJ republicans to go from 6-6 to 8-4 in the congressional delegation.

Could easily be 10-2 or even 11-1(!) depending on how the seats fall. Tge Demcratic party thanks the republicans for their dummymander.

No way does Frelinghuysen lose.

I actually think Frelinghuysen's probably a goner.

Is he the one who got a woman fired for complaining to him, or was that Lance?

This tax bill could destroy him and Lance both, IMO. It is beyond toxic for their core R voters who love to complain about their $18,000 annual property tax bills (and that is before income tax.)

Yup, Frelinghuysen's the one who pulled that. The man's been my congressman since the second I was born and I think people are starting to tire of him, particularly with the tax bill that seems tailor-made to brutally  his constituents. If there's an area that can be knocked out of the Republican coalition by the Trumpian antics in DC, its this district, since it's highly educated, wealthy, and increasingly diverse. And since Morris is the main thing holding up the Republican coalition in NJ, if they lose it, they might even struggle to hit 30% statewide.

[Cactus Jack]

Holy s**t. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't 2010 precipitated by a cavalry charge of Democratic retirements?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Going to kindly suggested that perhaps one lesson you really all ought to have learned from last year is that it is not a good idea to count chickens before they hatch. It's entirely possible that the Democrats make substantial gains next year, but drop the complacency...

[VPH]

Holy s**t. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't 2010 precipitated by a cavalry charge of Democratic retirements?

11 Dems retired entirely, including some big names like Dave Obey, Bart Stupak, and Bart Gordon. 8 GOPers did.

[Tartarus Sauce]

One of the top two Congressional Democrat retirement wish list, the other being Peter King in New York. Two hyper-entrenched politicians in swing districts who wouldn't go down no matter how big a wave happened.

[Tintrlvr]

Can’t subdue the Van Drew!

If Van Drew runs, I think we'd have to start the rating of NJ-02 out as Safe D.

[Young Conservative]

This is not good.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/articles.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/11/this_nj_lawmaker_is_getting_ready_to_run_for_lobio.amp

Sounds like Van Drew is in!

[Gustaf]

Holy s**t. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't 2010 precipitated by a cavalry charge of Democratic retirements?

11 Dems retired entirely, including some big names like Dave Obey, Bart Stupak, and Bart Gordon. 8 GOPers did.

It is well established that fundraising, retirements and nr of candidates running correlate with performance. And Democrats doing great on all those metrics.

That said, Al is correct that things could still change until election day. Right now it's looking fantastic though, no way around that fact.

[Figueira]

Will Van Drew have trouble in the primary? He seems pretty conservative for a Democrat.

[Tintrlvr]

Will Van Drew have trouble in the primary? He seems pretty conservative for a Democrat.

New Jersey has by far the most insider primaries of any state. It's basically impossible to run a solo primary campaign against a single candidate who is the pick of the county party and has "the line;" you'd need a full "line" of your own to have any chance at being successful. And South Jersey in particular does not really have any institutional history of anti-party candidates. Plus, NJ-02 is not the type of area that is going to have a lot of progressive youngsters to begin with; it's pretty dreary.

[Figueira]

Will Van Drew have trouble in the primary? He seems pretty conservative for a Democrat.

What Boss Norcross says goes. And the Dems in this part of NJ aren't that socially liberal anyway. Van Drew fits the seat perfectly

That's about what I figured. That's good.

(Unfortunate that we can't have someone better, and the district is probably swingy enough that any Democrat can win if it's a wave, but it's good to nail the seat down so we can focus more energy elsewhere.)

Does anyone know how Phil Murphy did in this district?