Will Virginia Beach Vote for Trump in 2020?

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Considering the county voted near the statewide result tonight, I'd say it's a big possibility. I thought for sure after 2016's elections Chesterfield would go D before VB.

[MT Treasurer]

Almost certainly not.

[Bidenworth2020]

Almost certainly not.

[Del Tachi]

Yes.  He won it bigly in 2016. 

[Bidenworth2020]

Yes.  He won it bigly in 2016.  

I guess 4 points is bigly lol

[Del Tachi]

Yes.  He won it bigly in 2016. 

I guess 4 points is bigly lol

That makes roughly it R+5.  Trump would have to lose the national popular vote by something 5 or more points to lose it, and I think we're too polarized for that in 2020.

[Bidenworth2020]

Yes.  He won it bigly in 2016. 

I guess 4 points is bigly lol

That makes roughly it R+5.  Trump would have to lose the national popular vote by something 5 or more points to lose it, and I think we're too polarized for that in 2020.

thats implying the swing is universal, which is unlikely considering he will lose the most in the suburbs

[Rookie Yinzer]

Toss-up. If the Democratic candidate is extremely popular and mobilizing massive turnout yes. If it is middle of the road enthusiasm and more about just ousting Trump then Trump will win by 1-3 points. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It depends. I'm leaning towards the Democrat candidate. What this election has shown is that Trump is unpopular in Virginia and that Trumpian tactics don't work there, as demonstrated by Gillespie. A candidate like Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, or Ralph Northam could win Virginia big enough to win Virginia Beach.

[Del Tachi]

Yes.  He won it bigly in 2016. 

I guess 4 points is bigly lol

That makes roughly it R+5.  Trump would have to lose the national popular vote by something 5 or more points to lose it, and I think we're too polarized for that in 2020.

thats implying the swing is universal, which is unlikely considering he will lose the most in the suburbs

Trump bottomed out in suburbs in 2016.  These places will trend GOP in 2020.

[Liberalrocks]

It will most likely flip Democrat.

[wxtransit]

I would wait to see before making a prediction, as although Trump won it in 2016, and Northam won it hours ago, these are not clear indicators of trends either way. I'll have to wait and see if any of this holds first.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump won't be the GOP nominee in 2020.  I don't know why everyone assumes he will be.

[IceSpear]

Trump won't be the GOP nominee in 2020.  I don't know why everyone assumes he will be.

The only way he won't be is if he's indicted/impeached/resigns etc.

[mgop]

who cares, virginia is a lost cause. good luck with democrats, again...

[TheSaint250]

Trump won't be the GOP nominee in 2020.  I don't know why everyone assumes he will be.

The only way he won't be is if he's indicted/impeached/resigns etc.

Exactly

[Holmes]

Probably not.

[Dr. Arch]

Yes.  He won it bigly in 2016. 

I guess 4 points is bigly lol

That makes roughly it R+5.  Trump would have to lose the national popular vote by something 5 or more points to lose it, and I think we're too polarized for that in 2020.

thats implying the swing is universal, which is unlikely considering he will lose the most in the suburbs

Trump bottomed out in suburbs in 2016.  These places will trend GOP in 2020.

No, yesterday's results show that there's still plenty of room for the floor to keep falling. Gillespie lost the VA suburbs by more than Trump (and lost most of the ones that Trump won, if not held onto them just barely).

[Green Line]

He won't win a single municipality with more than 1 Starbucks in 2020.

[Skill and Chance]

Chesterfield has always been a couple % more R in state level races relative to the statewide margin than in federal ones.  VA Beach has actually tended to be a couple % more D in state level races than in federal ones.  Kaine won VA Beach in 2005, but then Obama lost it in 2008.  McAuliffe 2013 did better in VA Beach than Clinton 2016!  I would be quite confident that Chesterfield flips first for a presidential candidate and by a larger margin if both flip.

Right now, I think Trump gets reelected after moving to the center with a Dem House, so I would clearly choose yes.  I would only flip it if Northam is actually on the Dem ticket.

[catographer]

Yes.  He won it bigly in 2016. 

I guess 4 points is bigly lol

That makes roughly it R+5.  Trump would have to lose the national popular vote by something 5 or more points to lose it, and I think we're too polarized for that in 2020.

Technically PVI works by comparing the share of the vote to the national  vote share. So if nationwide is 51-49 Clinton and Virginia Beach is 48-52 Trump, then Virginia Beach is R+3 (cuz 52-49=3).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Gun to my head, no, but I would not be surprised if it did.

[Mr. Smith]

Gun to my head, no, but I would not be surprised if it did.

[Suburbia]

Toss-up. If the Democratic candidate is extremely popular and mobilizing massive turnout yes. If it is middle of the road enthusiasm and more about just ousting Trump then Trump will win by 1-3 points. 

[Former President tack50]

Yes.  He won it bigly in 2016. 

I guess 4 points is bigly lol

That makes roughly it R+5.  Trump would have to lose the national popular vote by something 5 or more points to lose it, and I think we're too polarized for that in 2020.

Even assuming an even swing, a 5 point popular vote loss for Trump is definitely not unthinkable even if the US are polarized. It would be only slightly larger than Obama in 2012 or slightly smaller than the House vote in 2014 (albeit the other way around).

I think that even though the US are polarized, anything between D+9 and R+9 in the popular vote is almost certainly possible.