Is David Brat (VA-7) vulnerable in 2018?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Following Northam's near win of this district, should Dems try and make a play for it? Especially as he is quite the conservative, of both the Tea Party and proto-Trumpist (his win over Cantor was over immigration iirc) and this district seems to be one that is less favourable to those sorts.

[Virginiá]

Well it would certainly be nice to have good wave insurance here. I think it's possible Democrats could win it but I don't think likely, at least for right now.

[The Other Castro]

If there's one thing the VA HoD races show, it's that Democrats should at least try to run for everything, even if it appears that victory is highly unlikely. If a DSA candidate can win a reach Republican seat, it's at least worth trying for plausibly competitive congressional seats.

[Yank2133]

I doubt they knock him off, but they should contest the seat.

[_]

Whether or not he's vulnerable, putting up a decent candidate never hurts.

[Santander]

Dave Brat is one of my favorite Republicans.

[Tekken_Guy]

It's definitely going to be on the radar, but it's not a seat I'd expect to see flip.

[Oryxslayer]

Wave insurance.

However, it looks like dems have at least a 50% chance of a trifecta before 2020 now with both chambers near tied. If they get it, expect this seat to undergo a radical redraw. I have been able to get it up to D+5.3, while still looking nice, through using White Richmond and Henrico, Bits of chesterfield, Charlottesville, and then letting it continue its current path north along I95 to Fredricksburg and Prince William.

[Nyvin]

Wave insurance.

However, it looks like dems have at least a 50% chance of a trifecta before 2020 now with both chambers near tied. If they get it, expect this seat to undergo a radical redraw. I have been able to get it up to D+5.3, while still looking nice, through using White Richmond and Henrico, Bits of chesterfield, Charlottesville, and then letting it continue its current path north along I95 to Fredricksburg and Prince William.

Absolutely.   This district would be sooooooo easy for Dems to gerrymander.

[Nyvin]

Wave insurance.

However, it looks like dems have at least a 50% chance of a trifecta before 2020 now with both chambers near tied. If they get it, expect this seat to undergo a radical redraw. I have been able to get it up to D+5.3, while still looking nice, through using White Richmond and Henrico, Bits of chesterfield, Charlottesville, and then letting it continue its current path north along I95 to Fredricksburg and Prince William.

Absolutely.   This district would be sooooooo easy for Dems to gerrymander.

Is there a way to make a D-leaning (or likely D) VA-02 and VA-07 without endangering McEachin?

Seems kinda iffy to me

Definitely,  currently Albemarle and Charlottesville are both wasted in VA-5,  move those to VA-7 and take out some of the rural GOP areas from VA-7 and that with the Richmond suburbs would be enough to flip the district without affecting VA-4 at all.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Wave insurance.

However, it looks like dems have at least a 50% chance of a trifecta before 2020 now with both chambers near tied. If they get it, expect this seat to undergo a radical redraw. I have been able to get it up to D+5.3, while still looking nice, through using White Richmond and Henrico, Bits of chesterfield, Charlottesville, and then letting it continue its current path north along I95 to Fredricksburg and Prince William.

Absolutely.   This district would be sooooooo easy for Dems to gerrymander.

Is there a way to make a D-leaning (or likely D) VA-02 and VA-07 without endangering McEachin?

Seems kinda iffy to me

Definitely,  currently Albemarle and Charlottesville are both wasted in VA-5,  move those to VA-7 and take out some of the rural GOP areas from VA-7 and that with the Richmond suburbs would be enough to flip the district without affecting VA-4 at all.

Except I'm not sure how that could avoid a shift to VA-4's lines. You would almost certainly need to shift VA-5 to eat pretty significantly into VA-4 since VA-5 would lose its entire top appendage with VA-7 cutting it off. That's a lot of lost population. Maybe VA-5 could take in Roanoke and then VA-6 could take in the former top "antenna" of VA-5? Would that actually work as a tradeoff? If it doesn't, VA-5 would have to shift east into VA-4.

[Tintrlvr]

Wave insurance.

However, it looks like dems have at least a 50% chance of a trifecta before 2020 now with both chambers near tied. If they get it, expect this seat to undergo a radical redraw. I have been able to get it up to D+5.3, while still looking nice, through using White Richmond and Henrico, Bits of chesterfield, Charlottesville, and then letting it continue its current path north along I95 to Fredricksburg and Prince William.

Absolutely.   This district would be sooooooo easy for Dems to gerrymander.

Is there a way to make a D-leaning (or likely D) VA-02 and VA-07 without endangering McEachin?

Seems kinda iffy to me

Charlottesville is the key. There's room for one more D district (beyond VA-02 and VA-10) in a fair map of Virginia without changing any of the Democratic districts much as long as Charlottesville is matched with less Republican areas than it is now.

[Nyvin]

Except I'm not sure how that could avoid a shift to VA-4's lines. You would almost certainly need to shift VA-5 to eat pretty significantly into VA-4 since VA-5 would lose its entire top appendage with VA-7 cutting it off. That's a lot of lost population. Maybe VA-5 could take in Roanoke and then VA-6 could take in the former top "antenna" of VA-5? Would that actually work as a tradeoff? If it doesn't, VA-5 would have to shift east into VA-4.

Sure, move VA-6 north into Frederick since VA-10 is overpopulated anyway, and then move VA-5 west into VA-6.   VA-9 will have to expand also since it's underpopulated, so it's only natural you move VA-6 northward to some extent.  

There's also that southern tail of VA-7 that can be dropped into VA-5 as well.   I don't think it'd be that difficult.

Whatever they do, it can't possibly look worse than what VA-5 is right now, that district is just horrendous.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Except I'm not sure how that could avoid a shift to VA-4's lines. You would almost certainly need to shift VA-5 to eat pretty significantly into VA-4 since VA-5 would lose its entire top appendage with VA-7 cutting it off. That's a lot of lost population. Maybe VA-5 could take in Roanoke and then VA-6 could take in the former top "antenna" of VA-5? Would that actually work as a tradeoff? If it doesn't, VA-5 would have to shift east into VA-4.

Sure, move VA-6 north into Frederick since VA-10 is overpopulated anyway, and then move VA-5 west into VA-6.   VA-9 will have to expand also since it's underpopulated, so it's only natural you move VA-6 northward to some extent.  

There's also that southern tail of VA-7 that can be dropped into VA-5 as well.   I don't think it'd be that difficult.

Whatever they do, it can't possibly look worse than what VA-5 is right now, that district is just horrendous.

I completely forgot about VA-10's western tail. You could definitely do a tradeoff between VA-6 and VA-5 with that in mind.