Will the VA landslide set off a panic and a stampede of GOP retirements?

[mvd10]

I'm not saying they aren't trending D (ofcourse they are with Trump's virulent anti-intellectualism), but parts NoVa (and specifically Fairfax/Arlington) are different from the other wealthy suburbs. A lot of wealthy places voted for Gillespie or Guadagno btw, and the wealthy still were Gillespie's strongest group according to the CNN exit polls.

[heatcharger]

Fauquier and most of Stafford are not suburban and are not nearly as wealthy.

[RINO Tom]

I'm not saying they aren't trending D (ofcourse they are with Trump's virulent anti-intellectualism), but parts NoVa (and specifically Fairfax/Arlington) are different from the other wealthy suburbs. A lot of wealthy places voted for Gillespie or Guadagno btw, and the wealthy still were Gillespie's strongest group according to the CNN exit polls.

SHHHHHH.

[mvd10]

Fauquier and most of Stafford are not suburban and are not nearly as wealthy.

According to Wikipedia (probably not the best source, but I doubt they're off by much) Stafford and Fauquier are in the top 15 wealthiest counties.

I kinda assumed they were suburban but I could be wrong about that .

[heatcharger]

Fauquier and most of Stafford are not suburban and are not nearly as wealthy.

According to Wikipedia (probably not the best source, but I doubt they're off by much) Stafford and Fauquier are in the top 15 wealthiest counties.

I kinda assumed they were suburban but I could be wrong about that .

Well okay in my mind they aren’t as wealthy, but they’re still up there. But yeah those two counties are still too separated from the rest of the metropolitan area to be considering reasonably part of NOVA. This may change in the near future.

In any case you can’t ignore the swings in those counties either. The demographics didn’t change so rapidly that Northam would do 5 points better than Clinton. College whites are angry.

[Roronoa D. Law]

The statewide races were not landslides by any means. The legislative losses were almost exclusively in NOVA, so I would presume some Clinton-Suburban Republicans might consider that when determining whether to run for reelection. While tonight was not good, it isn't time to sound the alarm that 2018 is going to be wave. If Trump cuts taxes, suburbanites will come home.

trump was never 'home' for suburbanites lol

In Virginia?  Sure.  Across the country?  Come on.  There are tons of states where Trump won the suburban vote, and exit polls say he won it nationally.  VA's suburbs, however, seem to only be becoming more Democratic.

I think we all know what kind of suburbs he's talking about. Aka-probably not the wealthy college-educated white suburbs that you seem convinced are still the GOP core

I'm convinced of a lot less than your obsessive, annoying-as-all-hell posts seem to suggest.

I think you like to move the goalpost on what is a suburb by saying northerners are migrating or minorities are bring down wealth. You kind of make it seem like suburbs that vote Democrat are now part of giant extended inner city and suburbs are wherever Republican win by double digits.

[Yank2133]

The statewide races were not landslides by any means. The legislative losses were almost exclusively in NOVA, so I would presume some Clinton-Suburban Republicans might consider that when determining whether to run for reelection. While tonight was not good, it isn't time to sound the alarm that 2018 is going to be wave. If Trump cuts taxes, suburbanites will come home.

GOP tax plans hit suburban voters (especially upper-class suburbans) hard and could decrease their property value.

If R's think this is a way to win them over then they might as well give the gavel to Pelosi today.

[RINO Tom]

The statewide races were not landslides by any means. The legislative losses were almost exclusively in NOVA, so I would presume some Clinton-Suburban Republicans might consider that when determining whether to run for reelection. While tonight was not good, it isn't time to sound the alarm that 2018 is going to be wave. If Trump cuts taxes, suburbanites will come home.

trump was never 'home' for suburbanites lol

In Virginia?  Sure.  Across the country?  Come on.  There are tons of states where Trump won the suburban vote, and exit polls say he won it nationally.  VA's suburbs, however, seem to only be becoming more Democratic.

I think we all know what kind of suburbs he's talking about. Aka-probably not the wealthy college-educated white suburbs that you seem convinced are still the GOP core

I'm convinced of a lot less than your obsessive, annoying-as-all-hell posts seem to suggest.

I think you like to move the goalpost on what is a suburb by saying northerners are migrating or minorities are bring down wealth. You kind of make it seem like suburbs that vote Democrat are now part of giant extended inner city and suburbs are wherever Republican win by double digits.

That's not my intent.  I have pointed out, on occasion, that your wealthy, White suburbs farther away from the city are still pretty Republican in a lot of the country, and your more diverse, inner suburbs (many still quite wealthy, too) are usually more Democratic, and I think this isn't brought up enough (it's a lot easier to lazily say, "suburban County X voted for Bush by 30 points and voted against Trump by 10, those voters must have become Democrats" as if it were the exact same place in 2000 that it is now).  I have never really denied a very significant shift away from the GOP among many White suburbanites, though.  Part of that is Millennials being more likely to have a college degree and moving into those areas (i.e., "College Whites" are not this static group of people, and you can't compare "College Whites" in 2008 to "College Whites" now and REALLY determine how many voters are changing their minds/leaving which parties that well), but there has undeniably been a big shift in many former GOP voters to the Democrats ... I just find it funny when people act like this is now some reliably Democratic group, as it is at best a tossup cohort right now.

As for "moving the goalposts," I don't think that's what I am doing.  If Trump doesn't run for re-election and a Kasich-type gets demolished in suburban areas that used to go Republican, I would admit I was wrong like any reasonable person...

[publicunofficial]

I'd say Roskam, Royce, Walters, Paulsen should be the most alarmed from the Virginia results based on their districts. Comstock too, obviously.

[Bidenworth2020]

I'd say Roskam, Royce, Walters, Paulsen should be the most alarmed from the Virginia results based on their districts. Comstock too, obviously.

comstock would be lucky to keep it within single digits

[Tekken_Guy]

I'd say Roskam, Royce, Walters, Paulsen should be the most alarmed from the Virginia results based on their districts. Comstock too, obviously.

Don't forget Rohrabacher, Issa, Knight, Frelinghuysen, Lance, Coffman, McSally, etc.

[Roronoa D. Law]

@Rino Tom I understand what you mean Democrats need to understand that not all suburbs and college whites are the same. Loudon county was alway vulnerable to a Democratic surge because most of the white college grads went to liberal school like UVA, William and Mary, Georgetown, and John Hopkins. Suburbs where a majority of white college grad population went to school mostly liberal that rank in the top 100 universities are vulnerable for Republicans. GA-06, KS-03, and a few in Orange county comes to mind.

[Nyvin]

Comstock certainly has her work cut out for her in a 55.6% Northam district....