Will the VA landslide set off a panic and a stampede of GOP retirements?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I would certainly be expecting a lot more GOP retirements late in 2017 and early 2018 that's for sure.

[DrScholl]

There are rumors that there are more retirements coming this week and those rumors came up for the polls closed.

[Bidenworth2020]

comstock and taylor might retire.

[Cactus Jack]

comstock and taylor might retire.

Possibly Comstock. Taylor strikes me as the "fight to the death" type.

[Skill and Chance]

Definitely more in VA-10 like districts and some in VA-07 like districts.

[Ye We Can]

comstock and taylor might retire.

Possibly Comstock. Taylor strikes me as the "fight to the death" type.

Comstock's probably screwed, sure, but I think Taylor will survive. I mean, Northam had a home bounce on the Eastern Shore, and Vogel still won Virginia Beach. It's also very likely that Taylor will only have to deal with a B-lister.

[Pericles]

Hopefully Comstock retires. She'd lose anyway though.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Comstock is done. That is for sure. Whether she decides to step down or risk humiliation in an uphill and un-Gerrymandered NOVA district is her decision. It's sad, she was one of the few Republicans I could stand. I appreciated her votes against discriminatory LGBT legislation and ObamaCare repeal.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I also think this election signals the beginning of the end of the Virginia Republican party.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

comstock and taylor might retire.

Possibly Comstock. Taylor strikes me as the "fight to the death" type.

Northam also only lost Dave Brat's district by 51-47.

[Young Conservative]

The statewide races were not landslides by any means. The legislative losses were almost exclusively in NOVA, so I would presume some Clinton-Suburban Republicans might consider that when determining whether to run for reelection. While tonight was not good, it isn't time to sound the alarm that 2018 is going to be wave. If Trump cuts taxes, suburbanites will come home.

[Bidenworth2020]

The statewide races were not landslides by any means. The legislative losses were almost exclusively in NOVA, so I would presume some Clinton-Suburban Republicans might consider that when determining whether to run for reelection. While tonight was not good, it isn't time to sound the alarm that 2018 is going to be wave. If Trump cuts taxes, suburbanites will come home.

trump was never 'home' for suburbanites lol

[Frodo]

I also think this election signals the beginning of the end of the Virginia Republican party.

If you mean as a governing party, I would tentatively agree.  They should get ready to head back into the wilderness...   

[Holmes]

The statewide races were not landslides by any means. The legislative losses were almost exclusively in NOVA, so I would presume some Clinton-Suburban Republicans might consider that when determining whether to run for reelection. While tonight was not good, it isn't time to sound the alarm that 2018 is going to be wave. If Trump cuts taxes, suburbanites will come home.

There were quite a few in the Richmond and Virginia Beach areas too. Including a Virginia Beach district where the GOP won a special election earlier comfortably in the year.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think what this has illustrated is that you have a level of frustration, but you also have a level of laziness on the part of members of Congress.

We have all these house members who pass these extreme bills fed to them by these think tanks. They never call a single Democratic Senator, they pass them and send them over to the Senate for either nothing to happen or for them to only get 46 or 48 votes.

Where is the bipartisan working group ready to push legislation on opiates and drug addition, on cyber security and so forth. These are issues that Trump pledged to address and yes he has not been engaged enough on them at all, but I think a lot of this on members of Congress as well. Especially these ones in the House.

A common sense person would pick up the phone and start getting stuff done, but simple fact of the matter is that it goes back to what I said before. Stupid, lazy, unimaginative, self-absorbed. So yes I do expect a wave of retirements.

There aren't many people who are "representatives" in the sense that they go up there and write legislation. There are a lot of people up there who basically are there to spew talking points, and vote for the agenda that Grover Norquist or whoever shoves under their noses.

They went all in on the two big partisan efforts on healthcare and taxes and basically did nothing except make demands and so forth. We have all these committees meant to tackle different issues. There is no excuse for them not to have bills in the pipeline on these less heated but critical issues. So you can go to rural VA and say we did this on opiates. You can go to the suburbs and say I did this on cyber security.

[Skill and Chance]

This would suggest that worse than Trump numbers with college white voters can easily be achieved in 2018.  With a 9%+ margin in VA, it should be possible to win statewide in GA, in AZ, and even give Cruz a 5%ish scare in TX and flip the marginal Clinton districts there if they want to put the resources on the table.

Also, Gillespie did match Trump in Coal Country.  That should be a warning sign for Manchin and too a lesser extent, Brown and Casey, although I think they would all be fine in a national Dem wave.

[DrScholl]

The statewide races were not landslides by any means. The legislative losses were almost exclusively in NOVA, so I would presume some Clinton-Suburban Republicans might consider that when determining whether to run for reelection. While tonight was not good, it isn't time to sound the alarm that 2018 is going to be wave. If Trump cuts taxes, suburbanites will come home.

The problem with the tax plan is that it targets mortgage deductions and a lot of suburbanites have mortgages.

[Frodo]

The statewide races were not landslides by any means. The legislative losses were almost exclusively in NOVA, so I would presume some Clinton-Suburban Republicans might consider that when determining whether to run for reelection. While tonight was not good, it isn't time to sound the alarm that 2018 is going to be wave. If Trump cuts taxes, suburbanites will come home.

The problem with the tax plan is that it targets mortgage deductions and a lot of suburbanites have mortgages.

If that tax cut plan passes, it will be the albatross around the GOP neck that Obamacare was for us.  

[Indy Texas]

The statewide races were not landslides by any means. The legislative losses were almost exclusively in NOVA, so I would presume some Clinton-Suburban Republicans might consider that when determining whether to run for reelection. While tonight was not good, it isn't time to sound the alarm that 2018 is going to be wave. If Trump cuts taxes, suburbanites will come home.

But the GOP's tax cut plan raises taxes on a lot of those suburbanites and takes away the deductions for their high state taxes and their big mortgages.

[mvd10]

The statewide races were not landslides by any means. The legislative losses were almost exclusively in NOVA, so I would presume some Clinton-Suburban Republicans might consider that when determining whether to run for reelection. While tonight was not good, it isn't time to sound the alarm that 2018 is going to be wave. If Trump cuts taxes, suburbanites will come home.

But the GOP's tax cut plan raises taxes on a lot of those suburbanites and takes away the deductions for their high state taxes and their big mortgages.

The property tax deduction will remain (althought it will be capped at 10k) and I don't think most suburbanites have mortgages of $500k so they probably should see a tax cut in the first few years. By 2027 their taxes may have increased because of different inflation measures and the expiration of some tax credits but I think the TPC analysis showed that a large majority of voters would see a tax cut in the first couple of years. Ironically all the tax breaks start to expire when a Democrat should take office .

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The property tax deduction will remain (althought it will be capped at 10k)

Damn it. That deduction is a blatant subsidy of the suburban, upper middle class lifestyle and it MUST GO!!!

[RINO Tom]

The statewide races were not landslides by any means. The legislative losses were almost exclusively in NOVA, so I would presume some Clinton-Suburban Republicans might consider that when determining whether to run for reelection. While tonight was not good, it isn't time to sound the alarm that 2018 is going to be wave. If Trump cuts taxes, suburbanites will come home.

trump was never 'home' for suburbanites lol

In Virginia?  Sure.  Across the country?  Come on.  There are tons of states where Trump won the suburban vote, and exit polls say he won it nationally.  VA's suburbs, however, seem to only be becoming more Democratic.

[Gass3268]

The statewide races were not landslides by any means. The legislative losses were almost exclusively in NOVA, so I would presume some Clinton-Suburban Republicans might consider that when determining whether to run for reelection. While tonight was not good, it isn't time to sound the alarm that 2018 is going to be wave. If Trump cuts taxes, suburbanites will come home.

The current tax plan would hurt so many blue state suburbanites. Would endanger many Northeaster and West Coast Republicans.

[RINO Tom]

The statewide races were not landslides by any means. The legislative losses were almost exclusively in NOVA, so I would presume some Clinton-Suburban Republicans might consider that when determining whether to run for reelection. While tonight was not good, it isn't time to sound the alarm that 2018 is going to be wave. If Trump cuts taxes, suburbanites will come home.

trump was never 'home' for suburbanites lol

In Virginia?  Sure.  Across the country?  Come on.  There are tons of states where Trump won the suburban vote, and exit polls say he won it nationally.  VA's suburbs, however, seem to only be becoming more Democratic.

I think we all know what kind of suburbs he's talking about. Aka-probably not the wealthy college-educated white suburbs that you seem convinced are still the GOP core

I'm convinced of a lot less than your posts seem to suggest.

[mvd10]

It's interesting to note that there also are wealthy suburban counties that barely trended D in Virginia. Stafford and Fauquier barely trended D. I think there is a difference between the NoVa counties close to DC (Fairfax, Arlington and to a lesser extent Loudoun) and the other wealthy counties. Those closer to DC already trended heavily towards the Dems under Romney, McCain and Bush so just returning to movement conservatism won't return them to the GOP column (they probably were lost for the GOP already). I suppose it's because there are a lot of wealthy government workers in these counties, which makes them much more receptive to bigger government. The same may go for the tech suburbs in California. Tech probably benefits more from more government investment in education and infrastructure than from huge income tax cuts. They're much different from the traditional wealthy suburban counties that probably still voted Trump (though by a smaller margin than they voted in Romney for 2012).