Texas Megathread Mk. II : Big Dem State Legislature gains

[Terry the Fat Shark]

So Texas often flies under the radar these days on the Atlas (although there is a brief but present thread on TX Governor), we actually did have a megathread before (see here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=182847.0) but I figured a new one is needed!

I will breakdown some Texas races that could be key in 2018 if rumors of a democratic wave are true, some of the activists on the ground have been talking up their chances of making substantial gains using the anti-trump momentum that started in the 2016 Presidential results (when TX was closer than Iowa and such lol).

[Terry the Fat Shark]

House ratings (districts 1-9):

TX-1 - Incumbent: Louie Gohmert (R) , Held by R’s since 2005, Cook PVI: R+25, Rating: Safe R, The seat realigned in 2004 and has been running to the right since then, part of the overall Blue dog collapse that has occurred in the South.

TX-2 - Incumbent: Ted Poe (R, retiring), Held by R’s since 2005, Cook PVI: R+11, Rating: Likely R, Another seat that realigned in 2004. This seat likely would’ve been Safe R, but Ted Poe decided to retire. This is a real opportunity for Democrats in a major wave situation, at present there are 6 Democrats running for the Seat and 1 Republican.

TX-3 - Incumbent: Sam Johnson (R, retiring) , Held by R’s since 1968, Cook PVI: R+13, Rating: Likely R, This seat is rated Solid R just like TX-2 by the main raters, however, this seat only went for Trump 55-41 in 2016 and may be poised to flip in the case of a significant wave, it also features a retiring incumbent with 3 Republicans (including a State Senator) and 5 Democrats (including an Attorney) running for the Seat.

TX-4 - Incumbent: John Ratcliffe (R) , Held by R’s since 2004, Cook PVI: R+28, Rating: Safe R, This Seat should be held safely by the Republicans even in a major wave, as of now no Democrats have declared in this race. 

TX-5 - Incumbent: Jeb! Hensarling (R, retiring), Held by R’s since 1997, Cook PVI: R+16 Rating: Likely R, This seat is very uncertain, there is 1 D and 0 R’s running as of now, things will start to settle going into 2018 and hopefully things will become more clear.

TX-6 - Incumbent: Joe Barton (R), Held by R’s since 1983, Cook PVI: R+9, Rating: Likely R, This seat gives me pause. Entrenched incumbents like this along with increasingly close Cook PVI numbers indicate there may be room for a major upset in a wave election, there are several Democrats running here and it seems to indicate anti-R energy is gathering in the seat.

TX-7 - Incumbent: John Culberson (R) , Held by R’s since 1967, Cook PVI: R+7, Rating: Lean R, This seat is one that could easily fall in a wave or perhaps even a rough year for Texas Republicans. Culberson survived in 2006 but the demographics are changing here and with 6 Democratic Challengers along with a R primary challenger, this may be the year TX-7 flips to the dems.

TX-8 - Incumbent: Kevin Brady (R), Held by R’s since 1981, Cook PVI: R+28, Rating: Solid R, Likely Brady, This seat will stay in Republican hands, but Brady has faced significant primary challenges as recently as 2016 and once again has already attracted at least 3 primary challengers this year.

TX-9 - Incumbent: Al Green (D), Held by D’s since 1997, Cook PVI: D+29, Rating: Solid D, Obviously no need to worry here for the Democrats, this seat has actually been in Dem hands almost continuously since 1883 except for a 2 year period when the seat briefly flipped in the 1994 GOP wave, flipped back in 1996.

[Kamala]

TX-03 has a Democrat named... Sam Johnson running.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I'm too lazy for predictions for the rest right now, but there's noise that Christian TV executive from Tarrant County is going to challenge Ted Cruz in the primary, his name is Bruce Jacobson

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections/2017/11/16/christian-tv-producer-north-richland-hills-will-challenge-sen-ted-cruz-gop-primary

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Moving onto the Gubernatorial side of things, the Republican Primary has some token candidates challenging Greg Abbott (including a secessionist), but what is really shaping up to be interesting is the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary. Theoretically, I could see it going to a runoff. Unfortunately, there is no polling on this primary, but we can take a look at the two main candidates. There are a total of 7 democrats on the ballot for Governor, but the main two are Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez and son of Former Governor Mark White, Andrew White.

Getting into some fundraising:

Lupe Valdez raised $46,000 and Andrew White raised $219,000 (although that includes $40,000 that he loaned himself). I wouldn't look too much into these numbers as both jumped in right before the deadline in December and thus much of the money in Q4 was sucked up by other races in the State. That being said, it shows a close race shaping up for the primary (Abbott has 43.3 million dollars in his campaign account as of now) although I believe Valdez has an advantage given her already elected position and base in the DFW area (similar to Wendy Davis in 2014) and her possible outreach with Hispanic voters in the State. White mainly appeals to, well, White Democrats, most likely in Central Texas, but I could see them competing in other areas such as the Houston area as well.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

There is also a very interesting primary shaping up for Land Commissioner, which might not seem interesting to most, but it puts a rising star, George P. Bush (son of Jeb Bush) in real danger of being primaried out of office. I need some financial data on that so I'll hold off a bit on posting about it.

[Former Kentuckian]

Lupe Valdez and Andrew White both competed for the AFL-CIO endorsement and Valdez was chosen. Aside from her appeal with Latinos and those in Dallas County, this could also give her some leverage in the primary:

Lupe Valdez, Andrew White woo union members at AFL-CIO: https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/01/20/texas-democrats-lupe-valdez-andrew-white-woo-union-members-back-bids-governor

AFL-CIO endorses Valdez: chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/AFL-CIO-political-arm-endorses-Lupe-Valdez-12515105.php

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

White is going to make the race competitive if he wins the primary.

Against Greg Abbot???
I think not.

[Young Conservative]

White is going to make the race competitive if he wins the primary.

I'm sure Greg-40 million in the campaign account- Abott is so concerned with his sky high approvals.

[Former Kentuckian]

Some dirt on Andrew White has, inevitably, surfaced. He donated $2,500 to the Kentucky Republican Party several years ago: https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/01/white-suggests-gop-donation-was-business-career/

[Former Kentuckian]

Some dirt on Andrew White has, inevitably, surfaced. He donated $2,500 to the Kentucky Republican Party several years ago

I doubt that's going to have any significant impact on his chances - it was thirteen years ago.

I still think that Valdez is the strongest candidate in the primary and was going to beat White anyway.

Regardless, taking on Abbott is a fool's errand.

It's a small scandal, but it's something annoying he's going to have to explain from now on, and it's especially annoying for him after just losing the AFL-CIO endorsement.

And, yeah, Abbott is invincible but Texas is slowly becoming more Democratic and the only way to build the party is to run candidates and get people involved. Lupe will be the nominee and I'm glad Texas Democrats and left-leaning independents will have her and Beto to vote for.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

If somebody can find me fundraising numbers for Texas Land Commissioner on the GOP side, that would be great.

George P Bush, son of Jeb Bush, is somewhat considered a rising star of the TX GOP, although he is somewhat more moderate and so that gives him a bit of an anchor at times. He has recently undergone a project to "renovate the Alamo" which upset many Texas Republicans (especially the Tea Party wing) who thought it was fine and that it would be wasteful spending. They also thought the money could be more well spent. Enter Jerry Patterson, the man who was TX Land Commissioner from 2003 to 2015 and left the position in order to run for LT Gov in 2014 ( a campaign in which he came in 4th place during the primary.) He is running to retake this position, mainly using examples such as the Alamo renovation project and limited relief for Hurricane Harvey damaged homes, another big criticism. It is expected to be a close battle and is rather likely to go to a runoff, if either avoid a runoff, it'd be a big surprise.

[Torrain]

http://www.mystatesman.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/george-bush-tops-patterson-fundraising-land-commissioner-race/IX1qESbEltM1X5svb9cC0O/

George P. Bush: $3.4 million on hand, raised $1 million in the second half of 2017
Jerry Patterson: $95,452 on hand, raised $89,465 in December alone, and self-funded $20,000

Patterson's strategy is to force a runoff, and then hammer Bush on his single term compared to his own tenure.

[NewYorkExpress]

If somebody can find me fundraising numbers for Texas Land Commissioner on the GOP side, that would be great.

George P Bush, son of Jeb Bush, is somewhat considered a rising star of the TX GOP, although he is somewhat more moderate and so that gives him a bit of an anchor at times. He has recently undergone a project to "renovate the Alamo" which upset many Texas Republicans (especially the Tea Party wing) who thought it was fine and that it would be wasteful spending. They also thought the money could be more well spent. Enter Jerry Patterson, the man who was TX Land Commissioner from 2003 to 2015 and left the position in order to run for LT Gov in 2014 ( a campaign in which he came in 4th place during the primary.) He is running to retake this position, mainly using examples such as the Alamo renovation project and limited relief for Hurricane Harvey damaged homes, another big criticism. It is expected to be a close battle and is rather likely to go to a runoff, if either avoid a runoff, it'd be a big surprise.

If what you're saying about George P. Bush's decision to renovate the Alamo over Harvey relief funding is true, then I'll be shocked if Patterson even needs a runoff to win.

[Indy Texas]

http://www.mystatesman.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/george-bush-tops-patterson-fundraising-land-commissioner-race/IX1qESbEltM1X5svb9cC0O/

George P. Bush: $3.4 million on hand, raised $1 million in the second half of 2017
Jerry Patterson: $95,452 on hand, raised $89,465 in December alone, and self-funded $20,000

Patterson's strategy is to force a runoff, and then hammer Bush on his single term compared to his own tenure.

The other two candidates in the race are pretty much non-factors. It seems unlikely that Bush will get less than 50% of the vote.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

If somebody can find me fundraising numbers for Texas Land Commissioner on the GOP side, that would be great.

George P Bush, son of Jeb Bush, is somewhat considered a rising star of the TX GOP, although he is somewhat more moderate and so that gives him a bit of an anchor at times. He has recently undergone a project to "renovate the Alamo" which upset many Texas Republicans (especially the Tea Party wing) who thought it was fine and that it would be wasteful spending. They also thought the money could be more well spent. Enter Jerry Patterson, the man who was TX Land Commissioner from 2003 to 2015 and left the position in order to run for LT Gov in 2014 ( a campaign in which he came in 4th place during the primary.) He is running to retake this position, mainly using examples such as the Alamo renovation project and limited relief for Hurricane Harvey damaged homes, another big criticism. It is expected to be a close battle and is rather likely to go to a runoff, if either avoid a runoff, it'd be a big surprise.

If what you're saying about George P. Bush's decision to renovate the Alamo over Harvey relief funding is true, then I'll be shocked if Patterson even needs a runoff to win.

No No he didn't do *instead of* just at the same time, it seems he is finally doing some on Harvey and the contractors are donating to him now once again.

[Former Kentuckian]

Lupe Valdez took a bruising over the weekend, losing some ground against Andrew White:

https://www.dmagazine.com/frontburner/2018/02/lupe-valdez-andrew-white-endorsements/

http://politics.blog.mystatesman.com/2018/02/05/knocked-for-a-lupe-morning-news-chronicle-houston-glbt-caucus-snub-valdez-for-andrew-white/

On top of that, Andrew White loaned his campaign $1 million and raised $139,000 in donations in January. Lupe Valdez hasn't reported her January earnings yet, but was reportedly raising between $350 and $500 a day last month: https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/05/white-raises-11-million-january-including-1-million-loan-himself/

[Rookie Yinzer]

Who are the African-American political and activist leaders supporting?

[Former Kentuckian]

Who are the African-American political and activist leaders supporting?

State Rep. Garnet Coleman, who is Black, endorsed Andrew White and said, "We don’t want people to believe that the Democratic Party is against the white males — and we’re not." (https://www.texastribune.org/2017/12/07/andrew-white-son-late-gov-mark-white-announces-gubernatorial-bid/).

The Texas Coalition of Black Democrats seems to be supporting Cedric Davis: http://texascoalitionofblackdemocrats.com/tcbd-black-candidates/

That's about all I could find. So much of the media attention has been on Andrew White's appeal to white voters and Lupe Valdez's appeal with Latino voters.

[Rookie Yinzer]

State Rep. Garnet Coleman, who is Black, endorsed Andrew White and said, "We don’t want people to believe that the Democratic Party is against the white males — and we’re not." (https://www.texastribune.org/2017/12/07/andrew-white-son-late-gov-mark-white-announces-gubernatorial-bid/).

What a hot take. LMAO.

Wonder if Rep. Jackson-Lee and Al Green will get involved and endorse someone. That would give a clearer picture of how black Democrats are planning to vote.

[Former Kentuckian]

State Rep. Garnet Coleman, who is Black, endorsed Andrew White and said, "We don’t want people to believe that the Democratic Party is against the white males — and we’re not." (https://www.texastribune.org/2017/12/07/andrew-white-son-late-gov-mark-white-announces-gubernatorial-bid/).

What a hot take. LMAO.

Wonder if Rep. Jackson-Lee and Al Green will get involved and endorse someone. That would give a clearer picture of how black Democrats are planning to vote.

So far, they've steered clear of the race, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they endorsed White based on his lauded Houston Chronicle endorsement comments about the Houston floods: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/recommendations/article/Andrew-White-is-the-Democratic-Party-s-George-W-12549184.php

They could surprise me, though (if they do decide to endorse), since they've literally been completely silent on the race so far.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I have never voted for a democrat before (granted I've only voted a few times and in only one GE since I'm 20) but I would seriously consider voting for White based on his education and flood plans (and maybe against Dan Patrick because I just don't like him)

I am voting in the GOP Primary, voting for Abbott because the other 2 are crazy, but for LT Gov I plan on voting for the moderate opponent to Patrick and probably a token protest vote against Ken Paxton as well. Something crazy I should note here, the TEA PARTY (which is rather strong in tarrant county) is planning on voting against incumbent GOP US Rep Kenny Marchant, because he is "too establishment", just wanted to put that out there. Also, I am voting for George P Bush in the Land Commissioner's race.

On another note, I don't see why Lupe Valdez would've resigned her Dallas County sheriff position unless she was going to run for something else in the future, so plan on seeing her run for something statewide again in the near future, she is probably trying to build up name recognition in this effort.

[Indy Texas]

I have never voted for a democrat before (granted I've only voted a few times and in only one GE since I'm 20) but I would seriously consider voting for White based on his education and flood plans (and maybe against Dan Patrick because I just don't like him)

I am voting in the GOP Primary, voting for Abbott because the other 2 are crazy, but for LT Gov I plan on voting for the moderate opponent to Patrick and probably a token protest vote against Ken Paxton as well. Something crazy I should note here, the TEA PARTY (which is rather strong in tarrant county) is planning on voting against incumbent GOP US Rep Kenny Marchant, because he is "too establishment", just wanted to put that out there. Also, I am voting for George P Bush in the Land Commissioner's race.

On another note, I don't see why Lupe Valdez would've resigned her Dallas County sheriff position unless she was going to run for something else in the future, so plan on seeing her run for something statewide again in the near future, she is probably trying to build up name recognition in this effort.

(1) Dan Patrick is insane. Please vote for Scott Milder in the GOP primary and for Mike Collier in the general election. k thx

(2) George P. Bush has been a mediocre, ineffective and quite possibly corrupt land commissioner. Jerry Patterson did an excellent job when he held the position.

(3) She cannot be sheriff while campaigning for another office. I don't know if this is an explicit law or if it's just a de facto custom, but other county sheriffs have also resigned before running for other offices which makes me assume there is a law prohibiting it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm pretty sure I'm going to vote in the Democratic primary since it is going to be actually competitive, although I do not know for whom to vote. I think I will vote for Collier for Lieutenant Governor, but I'm uncertain between Valdez and White for governor. Does anyone have any thoughts regarding who would be better?

Pick Lupe, she has been great here in Dallas. Honestly though, White is good too, and would definitely support him over Abbott.

[CatoMinor]

In more under the radar news there is actually a competitive race for the Libertarian nomination for Governor.

Kathie Glass is the front runner and the nominee in 2010, 2014, and for Supreme Court in 2016. Coming from the more conservative wing of the party most notably with her stance on border control. Has the most appeal to Tea Party voters who for whatever wont vote for Abbot.

Kory Watkins is definitely representing the an/cap wing of the party. His campaign seems focused on legalizing marijuana and eliminating property taxes (and then all others). 

Mark Tippetts is a city councilman from Lago Vista. Tippetts' campaign is largely based around opposing Trump and any border wall. He has Mark Miller (2016 candidate for Railroad Commissioner and endorsed by all the major newspapers) and Mary Ruwart in his corner which can go a long way. If he can he get his name out more and build up a bigger social media presence he may be worth keeping an eye on as a potential nominee.

Finally we come to Patrick Smith, another an/cap. He claims to be running for "Not-Governor" i.e. governing by 100% by the Non-Aggression Principle.

Currently I am in the process of trying to get all four to come out to Huntsville where our county's LP will host a Gubernatorial debate in Maech