Texas Megathread Mk. II : Big Dem State Legislature gains
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  Texas Megathread Mk. II : Big Dem State Legislature gains
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Author Topic: Texas Megathread Mk. II : Big Dem State Legislature gains  (Read 26067 times)
Young Conservative
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« Reply #225 on: September 25, 2018, 07:27:46 AM »

Abott will probably win Latino men- again. This will be an excellent judge of whether traditional and inoffensive, but still conservative, Republicans can continue to. dominate in TX.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #226 on: October 01, 2018, 04:32:37 PM »

Here is the current Texas Senate map, as of the 12th of October when Peter "Pete" P. Flores takes office.



And below are the Senate seats up for 2018, with District 19 already having been decided.




The only seat that should be on the radar as obviously competitive is Konni Burton in District 10. This district was Wendy Davis's and Burton is tied to things such as bathroom legislation.

Senate District 30 (North Dallas Suburbs and Oklahoma border) will be getting a new member, likely the Republican Pat Fallon who successfully primary'd Estes in what will give Dan Patrick another strong supporter in the Senate.


Unless Dems make some surprise pick ups, Patrick should be a in a fairly powerful position in January.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #227 on: October 15, 2018, 01:31:18 PM »

Early voting starts in 7 days and it will be obvious from this if Dems have any chance this time around.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #228 on: October 15, 2018, 01:57:46 PM »

Early voting starts in 7 days and it will be obvious from this if Dems have any chance this time around.

That is just early voting in person. Early voting by mail has already been going on for quite a while now. But I don't think there are any numbers available for how many have already voted.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #229 on: October 15, 2018, 08:04:36 PM »

Early voting starts in 7 days and it will be obvious from this if Dems have any chance this time around.

That is just early voting in person. Early voting by mail has already been going on for quite a while now. But I don't think there are any numbers available for how many have already voted.
In person early voting is up to 50% of the total vote so it will be very important.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #230 on: October 19, 2018, 11:31:48 AM »

In a somewhat surprising turn of events, in addition to SD-10 Democrats seem to have a chance in Sen Districts 16 and 17 as well now.

SD-16 is suburban Dallas represented by Don Huffines, on the Rand Paul side of the GOP.

SD-17 is part of the Gulf Coast and then connects northward into the rich white part of Houston, represented by Joan Huffman. It is normally a safe R district and would certainly be the least likely of the 3 to flip.

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Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
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« Reply #231 on: October 20, 2018, 04:01:34 PM »

Would it be pointless for me to vote for Beto? I'm not really decided but I'm leaning towards him.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #232 on: October 20, 2018, 04:05:26 PM »

Would it be pointless for me to vote for Beto? I'm not really decided but I'm leaning towards him.

Well, no, considering that another vote for Beto makes it more possible. Vote for who you want to vote for, not because of some chance of victory. People on Atlas support Hugin to death even though he has little chance of winning.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #233 on: October 20, 2018, 11:19:37 PM »

Yeah, seriously, just vote your conscience. Voting based on polls is the best way to look like an ass on election night.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #234 on: October 22, 2018, 12:40:13 PM »



People CAMPED OUT to vote in Houston (today marked the start of early voting), over 2,000 people were in line to vote at the main Houston EV center before voting even started.


Anecdotal and all, please use caution. We will get numbers though tonight I believe.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #235 on: October 22, 2018, 12:41:23 PM »

More on the Houston scene:

https://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/Shocking-turnout-for-first-day-of-early-voting-in-13326201.php?utm_campaign=twitter-desktop&utm_source=CMS%20Sharing%20Button&utm_medium=social
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #236 on: October 22, 2018, 01:01:09 PM »

I have now seen pictures of the Dallas County line to confirm that is accurate.....

Montgomery County, which Trump won 73-22:

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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #237 on: October 22, 2018, 01:10:09 PM »

Somewhere in the DFW Metroplex....

Enough line pics though, EV is 8-5 today, we should have at least some real data this evening.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #238 on: October 22, 2018, 01:13:20 PM »



Alright, one more Tongue But just to note this is a heavy minority area....
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #239 on: October 22, 2018, 04:16:17 PM »

Will Abbott cruising to re election cripple Democratic chances in the Texas legislature?
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #240 on: October 22, 2018, 06:08:48 PM »

Will Abbott cruising to re election cripple Democratic chances in the Texas legislature?
Nah, people don't associate them.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #241 on: October 22, 2018, 06:09:21 PM »

http://access.tarrantcounty.com/content/main/en/elections/Upcoming-Election-Information/Live_Turn_Out_Widget.html over 40,000 people so far in Tarrant County and they are still updating the numbers (Tarrant did close at 5 PM today, though)
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #242 on: October 22, 2018, 07:05:34 PM »

Let's see if this continues to materialize.  Texas was supposed to have historic turnout in 2016 (a Presidential year, when turnout is normally high), and it all fizzled out toward the end.  In fact, I think it had lower turnout than 2012!

I have less faith that turnout will be historic in a mid-term year in Texas.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #243 on: October 22, 2018, 07:09:36 PM »

Let's see if this continues to materialize.  Texas was supposed to have historic turnout in 2016 (a Presidential year, when turnout is normally high), and it all fizzled out toward the end.  In fact, I think it had lower turnout than 2012!

I have less faith that turnout will be historic in a mid-term year in Texas.

We did have a huge surge in turnout, it went up from 43% to 56%
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #244 on: October 22, 2018, 10:34:56 PM »

Here's a round up on final #s for 1st day early voting in many/most of the major big metro counties in TX. Across all these counties, they basically either came very close to 2016 turnout, or even BEAT it:

Austin/Travis County - They beat the 2016 Presidential election... in a midterm...

2018: 47,405
2016: 47,109
2014: 17,181



Houston/Harris County

2018: 63,188
2016: 67,471
2014: 20,215


Dallas/Dallas County

2018: 57,080
2016: 58,775
2014: 13,036




San Antonio/Bexar County

2018: 34,021
2016: 35,431
2014: 13,436




Fort Worth/Tarrant County

2018: 38,430* (apparently unofficial, might increase)
2016: 43,140
2014: 13,466


North Dallas-Fort Worth Suburbs/Denton County - another NUT...

2018: 17,278
2016: 16,963
2014: 5,372







North Austin Suburbs/Williamson County - another NUT...

2018: 20,711
2016: 18,103
2014: 4,267

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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #245 on: October 22, 2018, 10:42:42 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2018, 10:45:56 PM by Cruz Will Win 👁 »

And as soon as I posted that, we get the BIG news.

South Texas/Hidalgo County

2018: 19,652 --- BEATS 2016 PRESIDENTIAL TURNOUT... IN HIDALGO COUNTY (92% HISPANIC)
2016: 18,526
2014: 9,930


THE HISPANICS ARE VOTING OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG!!!


THE HISPANICS ARE VOTING OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG!!!
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Doimper
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« Reply #246 on: October 22, 2018, 10:44:17 PM »

And as soon as I posted that, we get the BIG news.

South Texas/Hidalgo County

2018: 19,652 --- BEATS 2016 PRESIDENTIAL TURNOUT... IN HIDALGO COUNTY (92% HISPANIC)
2016: 18,526
2014: 9,930


THE HISPANICS ARE VOTING OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG!!!


THE HISPANICS ARE VOTING OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG!!!

Texan election aficionados, is this as crazy as it appears?
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #247 on: October 22, 2018, 10:45:27 PM »

Texan election aficionados, is this as crazy as it appears?

YES. YES. YES. YES. YES. YES. YES. YES.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #248 on: October 22, 2018, 10:51:19 PM »

What is your source for the numbers by the way?
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Zaybay
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« Reply #249 on: October 22, 2018, 10:54:02 PM »

Texan election aficionados, is this as crazy as it appears?

YES. YES. YES. YES. YES. YES. YES. YES.

My god....That is huge!
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