What were the first signs that Virginia was trending leftward?

[libertpaulian]

I'm curious as to what your theories are of what the first signs were regarding Virginia's political trends.  If you were a GOP consultant (or Dem consultant), what would have been the first warning shot for you?

Some people say it was Mark Warner's 2001 victory, some say it was Kaine 2005, others say it was Webb 2006, but a lot say Obama 2008.  A small few even say Dole's 2% margin over Clinton in 1996 should have been the first wake-up call.

What say you?

[RFayette]

To me, 2004 would have been the obvious wakeup call due to Bush's loss of Fairfax County.  Clinton's strength in VA was largely due to strength in rural Western Virginia and the Southeast, with NoVA being solidly Republican at the time.  2001 is possible, but again, this was very much the "Old Virginia Democrat" coalition - Warner was very strong all across rural Virginia, and despite winning Fairfax, it wasn't instrumental to his win.  Also there was a tradition of the opposite party of the White House winning in off years, so this shouldn't be a huge surprise.  2004, on the other hand, showed a sharp shift of the NoVA suburbs away from Bush and the state barely voting more Republican than the country as a whole, a novel situation. 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

1992 (Not sure how noticeable they were at the time but this is when the trend probably started)

-Virginia swung from a 20 point margin in 1988 to just a 4 point margin in 1992.   That was when Virginia first started trending Democrat as well that time by 2.85%.

-Every county in NOVA trended Democrat in 1992 suggesting at least the begging of some kind of a trend, this was mostly counter balanced by a Republican trend in South west Virginia.

-Fairfax county once a stronghold for the GOP was within 3 points, Bush won it by roughly 22 points in 1988.

Here are the trends for some key NOVA counties below in 1992:
Arlington 4.48%
Fairfax 6.86%
Loudoun 8.63%
Prince William 9.30%

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I'm curious as to what your theories are of what the first signs were regarding Virginia's political trends.  If you were a GOP consultant (or Dem consultant), what would have been the first warning shot for you?

Some people say it was Mark Warner's 2001 victory, some say it was Kaine 2005, others say it was Webb 2006, but a lot say Obama 2008.  A small few even say Dole's 2% margin over Clinton in 1996 should have been the first wake-up call.

What say you?

I'd say Mark Warner's victory in 2001; he was elected Governor just two months after the Islamist terror attacks, which led to Bush's biggest popularity peak.

[Del Tachi]

1992 (Not sure how noticeable they were at the time but this is when the trend probably started)

-Virginia swung from a 20 point margin in 1988 to just a 4 point margin in 1992.   That was when Virginia first started trending Democrat as well that time by 2.85%.

-Every county in NOVA trended Democrat in 1992 suggesting at least the begging of some kind of a trend, this was mostly counter balanced by a Republican trend in South west Virginia.

-Fairfax county once a stronghold for the GOP was within 3 points, Bush won it by roughly 22 points in 1988.

Here are the trends for some key NOVA counties below in 1992:
Arlington 4.48%
Fairfax 6.86%
Loudoun 8.63%
Prince William 9.30%

Interesting that the "exurban" Loudoun and Prince William trended more D in 1992 than Fairfax or Arlington.  However, we have to remember that Loudoun and PW were still very rural in 1992, so the trends we're seeing here are probably reflective of Bill Clinton's strength with rural Democrats at the time. 

[Young Conservative]

To me, 2004 would have been the obvious wakeup call due to Bush's loss of Fairfax County.  Clinton's strength in VA was largely due to strength in rural Western Virginia and the Southeast, with NoVA being solidly Republican at the time.  2001 is possible, but again, this was very much the "Old Virginia Democrat" coalition - Warner was very strong all across rural Virginia, and despite winning Fairfax, it wasn't instrumental to his win.  Also there was a tradition of the opposite party of the White House winning in off years, so this shouldn't be a huge surprise.  2004, on the other hand, showed a sharp shift of the NoVA suburbs away from Bush and the state barely voting more Republican than the country as a whole, a novel situation. 

[Devils30]

2000: Gore beating Clinton 1996 in Fairfax, Henrico, Chesterfield.

[MT Treasurer]

2000: Gore beating Clinton 1996 in Fairfax, Henrico, Chesterfield.

Yeah, 2000 is the obvious answer here IMO. The state was relatively close in both the presidential and the Senate race, and Bush did worse than Dole in the counties you mentioned + Richmond + Arlington.

[RINO Tom]

Probably 2000, as most here have said.  It's weird to see how differently "political people" and "regular people" view these things, though.  Most people don't pay attention to what demographics swing which way or which counties vote for whom; they just think of states as "solid red" or "solid blue" until they vote a certain way like two or three elections in a row.  My aunt and uncle live in Annandale in Fairfax, and not only were they "shocked" when Obama won VA in 2008, they were surprised that NOVA had become "the blue lagoon," LOL.  Even though this is not entirely accurate, to them it's "people from the shltty Maryland side coming over here because of their high taxes, and then they'll just vote to make ours higher."  Again, that doesn't explain the whole story, but what do they say?  Perception is reality?  Haha.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Virginia has trended Democrat 5 times in a row!

[progressive85]

The state has a lot of colleges and young people in the state are very Democratic so its a generational shift.  There's so many government workers in Northern Virginia and even if they are wealthy, their fortunes are tied to the government and so they became Democratic because the Republicans were cutting their jobs and salaries.  The state has a large African-American minority and that is the base of the party so when they come out in droves, they combine with the liberal whites and give the Democrat enough votes to win.  Virginia was also one of the first Southern states to become Republican so that cycle is now ending while other Southern states are still in it.  Virginia's days as a bastion of right-wing conservatism are over.  The young people in the state are going to turn it into a deep blue state, more blue than probably any in the Midwest.  A similar trend is happening one state to the south in North Carolina where the young voters have consistently backed the Democrats since 2004.

People forget that young people were not a Democratic constituency before 2004.  Most young voters went with Nixon in '72.  Young voters in the 80s became Republican because of the extremely weak Democratic candidates and the popularity of Ronald Reagan.  Even in the 90s and 2000 election, there was not a dramatic difference across generations.

In 2004, you saw a clear movement of the millennials towards Democrats.  That grew deeper in the late 2000s, with the Obama campaign's outreach to them.  They remained Democratic leaning in 2010 and helped Obama win re-election in 2012 (he would have not won without them).  In 2016, Hillary was unpopular and millennials favored her, but in some states Donald Trump did much better with them.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

For me personally, it was Obama winning there in 2012.

[Skill and Chance]

The first sign of the current Dem coalition forming would have to be Kaine's surprisingly large 2005 win.  There was a precedent back to the 1980's for Dems winning Fairfax by more than the statewide margin, but Loudoun, Prince William, VA Beach and the Kaine margin in Henrico/small Kilgore margin in Chesterfield were big surprises.  Warner's 2001 win was very much about the old school Dem coalition at the state level, so that's not a good starting point.  His map looks very foreign today.

[Hydera]

The state has a lot of colleges and young people in the state are very Democratic so its a generational shift.  There's so many government workers in Northern Virginia and even if they are wealthy, their fortunes are tied to the government and so they became Democratic because the Republicans were cutting their jobs and salaries.  The state has a large African-American minority and that is the base of the party so when they come out in droves, they combine with the liberal whites and give the Democrat enough votes to win.  Virginia was also one of the first Southern states to become Republican so that cycle is now ending while other Southern states are still in it.  Virginia's days as a bastion of right-wing conservatism are over.  The young people in the state are going to turn it into a deep blue state, more blue than probably any in the Midwest.  A similar trend is happening one state to the south in North Carolina where the young voters have consistently backed the Democrats since 2004.

People forget that young people were not a Democratic constituency before 2004.  Most young voters went with Nixon in '72.  Young voters in the 80s became Republican because of the extremely weak Democratic candidates and the popularity of Ronald Reagan.  Even in the 90s and 2000 election, there was not a dramatic difference across generations.

In 2004, you saw a clear movement of the millennials towards Democrats.  That grew deeper in the late 2000s, with the Obama campaign's outreach to them.  They remained Democratic leaning in 2010 and helped Obama win re-election in 2012 (he would have not won without them).  In 2016, Hillary was unpopular and millennials favored her, but in some states Donald Trump did much better with them.

I was going to post about suburban military oriented Virginians switching to Obama and becoming dems. But i've looked up the stats and there wasn't really a big movement of Bush 2004 suburban voters to Obama. While many Bush voters did switch to obama in the suburbs. A much larger amount were first time voters in 2008. Mainly from asians, blacks and hispanics along with college educated whites that disapproved of Bush. But not as many bush voters.

Its kind of weird how long i thought this was the case of former bush voters working in Government that switched because the republicans started talking about cutting government spending.. Which didn't really happen.

[TDAS04]

Definitely 2000, when it trended Democratic.  Political analysts were slow to realize that though, and I remember them in 2004 mocking the Kerry campaign for suggesting that Virginia could be competitive. The pundits thought that The Democratic nominee had a better chance in such states as West Virginia, Arkansas, and Louisiana.  LOL

[RINO Tom]

Definitely 2000, when it trended Democratic.  Political analysts were slow to realize that though, and I remember them in 2004 mocking the Kerry campaign for suggesting that Virginia could be competitive. The pundits thought that The Democratic nominee had a better chance in such states as West Virginia, Arkansas, and Louisiana.  LOL

I mean, most people rely pretty heavily on the previous election (rightly or wrongly), and these were the 2000 results:

VA: +8.04% GOP
LA: +7.68% GOP
WV: +6.32% GOP
AR: +5.44% GOP

Even in 2004, these were the results:

LA: +14.51% GOP
WV: +12.86% GOP
AR: +9.76% GOP
VA: +8.02% GOP

So VA ended up being more Democratic  than all of them in 2004, but it was more Republican than all of them in 2000, and it wasn't THAT much more Democratic than Arkansas in 2004.  It really wasn't that crazy of a thing to think in 2004, though Kerry wasn't exactly a great fit for Southern Democrats.  What pundits should have put a LOT more stock in, looking back, is that Democrats were having a lot of their voters down in Dixie die off between 1996 and 2008, and their kids weren't nearly as open to supporting the "right kind of Democrat," let alone a John Kerry type.  VA, on the other hand, was changing its voter pool to a significantly more Democratic-friendly electorate.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Definitely 2000, when it trended Democratic.  Political analysts were slow to realize that though, and I remember them in 2004 mocking the Kerry campaign for suggesting that Virginia could be competitive. The pundits thought that The Democratic nominee had a better chance in such states as West Virginia, Arkansas, and Louisiana.  LOL

I mean, most people rely pretty heavily on the previous election (rightly or wrongly), and these were the 2000 results:

VA: +8.04% GOP
LA: +7.68% GOP
WV: +6.32% GOP
AR: +5.44% GOP

Even in 2004, these were the results:

LA: +14.51% GOP
WV: +12.86% GOP
AR: +9.76% GOP
VA: +8.02% GOP

So VA ended up being more Democratic  than all of them in 2004, but it was more Republican than all of them in 2000, and it wasn't THAT much more Democratic than Arkansas in 2004.  It really wasn't that crazy of a thing to think in 2004, though Kerry wasn't exactly a great fit for Southern Democrats.  What pundits should have put a LOT more stock in, looking back, is that Democrats were having a lot of their voters down in Dixie die off between 1996 and 2008, and their kids weren't nearly as open to supporting the "right kind of Democrat," let alone a John Kerry type.  VA, on the other hand, was changing its voter pool to a significantly more Democratic-friendly electorate.

In 2002 the Republicans won VA by a huge landslide, while losing in WV,AR,LA(WV in a landslide)

[Hydera]

To me, 2004 would have been the obvious wakeup call due to Bush's loss of Fairfax County.  Clinton's strength in VA was largely due to strength in rural Western Virginia and the Southeast, with NoVA being solidly Republican at the time.  2001 is possible, but again, this was very much the "Old Virginia Democrat" coalition - Warner was very strong all across rural Virginia, and despite winning Fairfax, it wasn't instrumental to his win.  Also there was a tradition of the opposite party of the White House winning in off years, so this shouldn't be a huge surprise.  2004, on the other hand, showed a sharp shift of the NoVA suburbs away from Bush and the state barely voting more Republican than the country as a whole, a novel situation. 

Yeah, the Fairfax curb-stomping in 2004 shoulda been the big warning sign, just like I suspect Gwinnet and Cobb Counties in 2016 will be looked at as the big warning signs for Georgia when it inevitably goes Democratic in either 2020 or 2024.

Unless Trump goes to below 30 approval then maybe 2024 and even then it will be tight. Even though Georgia is suburban it needs more time for the suburban areas to be able to counter the deeply conservative rural areas.

[OSR stands with Israel]

To me, 2004 would have been the obvious wakeup call due to Bush's loss of Fairfax County.  Clinton's strength in VA was largely due to strength in rural Western Virginia and the Southeast, with NoVA being solidly Republican at the time.  2001 is possible, but again, this was very much the "Old Virginia Democrat" coalition - Warner was very strong all across rural Virginia, and despite winning Fairfax, it wasn't instrumental to his win.  Also there was a tradition of the opposite party of the White House winning in off years, so this shouldn't be a huge surprise.  2004, on the other hand, showed a sharp shift of the NoVA suburbs away from Bush and the state barely voting more Republican than the country as a whole, a novel situation. 

Yeah, the Fairfax curb-stomping in 2004 shoulda been the big warning sign, just like I suspect Gwinnet and Cobb Counties in 2016 will be looked at as the big warning signs for Georgia when it inevitably goes Democratic in either 2020 or 2024.

Unless Trump goes to below 30 approval then maybe 2024 and even then it will be tight. Even though Georgia is suburban it needs more time for the suburban areas to be able to counter the deeply conservative rural areas.

Virginia was more Republican in 2004 than Georgia was in 2016 and it ended up going for Obama by 7 God damn points four years later. Don't tell me Georgia can't go blue in 2020 in a wave.

Thats because Bush won nationally by 2.5 points while Trump lost by 2.1 points(which means Bush did 4.6 points better than Trump nationally).

PVI wise


Virginia was : +5.7 GOP in 2004 ( Bush won nationally by 2.5 points , won VA by 8.2 points)


while Georgia was: +7.2 GOP in 2016(Hillary won nationally by 2.1 points , lost GA by 5.1)



So no thats not true

[pbrower2a]

In 2004, Virginia was surprisingly close. Sure, Mark  Warner beat George Allen, Jr., but one could ascribe that to Allen running a dreadful campaign against an unusually-strong challenger. 2008? Obama might have simply been the ideal Democrat for winning Virginia. Just check my maps that compare Eisenhower to Obama... in the 1950s the Republicans won the vast majority of college-educated voters* and in 2008 and later Democrats won the college-educated vote. (OK, college was largely a WASP preserve as late as the 1950s for the middle-aged and older; it is not so now. Can anyone tell me what proportion of Ivy League admissions are Jewish? That has to be very high now). Although college-educated people are not as strongly D today than they were strongly R in the 1950s, they are a much larger and more important part of the electorate now.   

Virginia was more R than the nation as a whole in Presidential elections from 1952 to 2012. That is over.


*Goldwater won  the majority of college-educated voters in his blowout loss to LBJ in 1964!

[Calthrina950]

In 2004, Virginia was surprisingly close. Sure, Mark  Warner beat George Allen, Jr., but one could ascribe that to Allen running a dreadful campaign against an unusually-strong challenger. 2008? Obama might have simply been the ideal Democrat for winning Virginia. Just check my maps that compare Eisenhower to Obama... in the 1950s the Republicans won the vast majority of college-educated voters* and in 2008 and later Democrats won the college-educated vote. (OK, college was largely a WASP preserve as late as the 1950s for the middle-aged and older; it is not so now. Can anyone tell me what proportion of Ivy League admissions are Jewish? That has to be very high now). Although college-educated people are not as strongly D today than they were strongly R in the 1950s, they are a much larger and more important part of the electorate now.   

Virginia was more R than the nation as a whole in Presidential elections from 1952 to 2012. That is over.


*Goldwater won  the majority of college-educated voters in his blowout loss to LBJ in 1964!

According to this (http://news.gallup.com/poll/9454/election-polls-vote-groups-19601964.aspx), Johnson won college-educated voters 52-48%.

[Person Man]

To me, 2004 would have been the obvious wakeup call due to Bush's loss of Fairfax County.  Clinton's strength in VA was largely due to strength in rural Western Virginia and the Southeast, with NoVA being solidly Republican at the time.  2001 is possible, but again, this was very much the "Old Virginia Democrat" coalition - Warner was very strong all across rural Virginia, and despite winning Fairfax, it wasn't instrumental to his win.  Also there was a tradition of the opposite party of the White House winning in off years, so this shouldn't be a huge surprise.  2004, on the other hand, showed a sharp shift of the NoVA suburbs away from Bush and the state barely voting more Republican than the country as a whole, a novel situation. 

Yeah, the Fairfax curb-stomping in 2004 shoulda been the big warning sign, just like I suspect Gwinnet and Cobb Counties in 2016 will be looked at as the big warning signs for Georgia when it inevitably goes Democratic in either 2020 or 2024.

Unless Trump goes to below 30 approval then maybe 2024 and even then it will be tight. Even though Georgia is suburban it needs more time for the suburban areas to be able to counter the deeply conservative rural areas.

Virginia was more Republican in 2004 than Georgia was in 2016 and it ended up going for Obama by 7 God damn points four years later. Don't tell me Georgia can't go blue in 2020 in a wave.

Thats because Bush won nationally by 2.5 points while Trump lost by 2.1 points(which means Bush did 4.6 points better than Trump nationally).

PVI wise


Virginia was : +5.7 GOP in 2004 ( Bush won nationally by 2.5 points , won VA by 8.2 points)


while Georgia was: +7.2 GOP in 2016(Hillary won nationally by 2.1 points , lost GA by 5.1)



So no thats not true

That's at least pretty close.  Georgia will be a TOSSUP the time the next Democrat gets elected.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In 2000 when WVA went GOP and VA trended Dem and VA elected Mark Warner for Governor.  Charleston, WVA was no longer a Democratic stronghold, so many non Confederates left the state and moved to Richmond, VA.  And the Democratic trend of ethnic minorities moving into VA from the BALT and DC suburbs for housing and jobs.

[I’m not Stu]

Northern Virginia trending Democratic in 2004.

[x-Guy]

It is kinda hard to say and pinpoint a certain moment. I am sure we can all agree that the 2017 state elections were when the blue wave went in full throttle though.