Big Redistricting News Out Of PA!

[Gass3268]

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[heatcharger]

Wouldn't this cause a lot of chaos less than 12 months out? Couldn't Republicans just stall until after 2018? If not, CD-6, CD-7, and CD-8 would become much more vulnerable in a fair map. Maybe one more, although I don't know where it would come from.

[IceSpear]

Someone post the dog sweat gif for krazen.

[Gass3268]

Wouldn't this cause a lot of chaos less than 12 months out? Couldn't Republicans just stall until after 2018? If not, CD-6, CD-7, and CD-8 would become much more vulnerable in a fair map. Maybe one more, although I don't know where it would come from.

My guess is the PA SC wouldn't let them stall.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YES! Screw Scott Presler.

[Oryxslayer]

This belongs in the geography and demographics thread.


I still like the news. For those that don't know, the PA supreme court is 5D-2R, so the court will vote in favor of new maps no doubt.

[heatcharger]

Also couldn't/wouldn't the precedent set here be used in the Wisconsin SC case if the efficiency gap is used as a test? That could mean the gerrymanders in WI, NC, OH, etc. fall.

[Tintrlvr]

Also couldn't/wouldn't the precedent set here be used in the Wisconsin SC case if the efficiency gap is used as a test? That could mean the gerrymanders in WI, NC, OH, etc. fall.

Maybe, but precedent for one state will only get you so far in a different state. Different state laws and state constitutions, and state court interpretations of federal law are not binding outside of the state (and could be appealed to the US Supreme Court).

[Virginiá]

Oh my. This is huge!


PA Republicans, no doubt:

[Torie]

In the new political dynamic of PA, a non gerrymandered map might not gain much for the Dems at the Congressional level. Indeed, Cartwright, who represents what was thought to be a Dem vote sink in the Scranton-Wilks-Barre area but where Trump made massive gains (offset some by Schuylkill County being in the CD), might be put at risk. But that would be offset by PA-07 going to the Dems, which was kept Pub by an insane precinct by precinct gerrymander. PA-08 would get a tad more Dem, but it would still be a swing district. I am not sure what the basis of the lawsuit is, unless it is anticipating a SCOTUS decision. I suppose it could be based on similar broad brush language in the PA Constitution about equal protection or whatever, but it would be rather novel to rely on that.

[Devils30]

The GOP would be in deep trouble in PA 6,7 and 8. If the 16th is moved into Chester they could be as well there.

[krazen1211]

Yawn. The legislature will simply pass another gerrymander even if this monkey business comes to pass.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Yawn. The legislature will simply pass another gerrymander even if this monkey business comes to pass.

and Tom Wolf will veto it.

[krazen1211]

Yawn. The legislature will simply pass another gerrymander even if this monkey business comes to pass.

and Tom Wolf will veto it.

And we will override the veto. Fun times.

[Oryxslayer]

Yawn. The legislature will simply pass another gerrymander even if this monkey business comes to pass.

and Tom Wolf will veto it.

And we will override the veto. Fun times.

You don't have a 2/3s majority in the PA house. Can't override Wolf's Veto.

[krazen1211]

You don't have a 2/3s majority in the PA house. Can't override Wolf's Veto.

Ah, young grasshopper! That leaves the GOP a few votes short of a veto override. We will find allies in the Pennsylvania state legislature such as the Democratic friends of Philadelphia party boss Bob Brady.

I remember in 2011 when I warned liberals that we would enlist Clay/Cleaver allies to vote for Congressional redistricting and they did not want to believe me. And then Clay/cleaver allies delivered the votes to override Jay Nixon's veto of the redistricting. It was the first veto override of that governor.

Link

History has a way of repeating itself.

[Antonio the Sixth]

hahahaha krazen, you're so cute

[Oryxslayer]

You don't have a 2/3s majority in the PA house. Can't override Wolf's Veto.

Ah, young grasshopper! That leaves the GOP a few votes short of a veto override. We will find allies in the Pennsylvania state legislature such as the Democratic friends of Philadelphia party boss Bob Brady.

I remember in 2011 when I warned liberals that we would enlist Clay/Cleaver allies to vote for Congressional redistricting and they did not want to believe me. And then Clay/cleaver allies delivered the votes to override Jay Nixon's veto of the redistricting. It was the first veto override of that governor.

Link

History has a way of repeating itself.

Two problems I see with this - perhaps you could enlighten me on either of these things. First the map, if redrawn, will probably be handed down from the Democrat dominated court rather than left to the State like in Florida. The court will pick a map/draw its own, then encourage the legislature it can change it in little ways if it doesn't like it.

Second, in 2010, the Republicans controlled everything. They had the power to promise concessions beyond the shape of their districts to the Philly machine. Now with wolf in the Governors mansion, Democrats can offer their own deals if it truly comes to this in regards to redistricting.

[krazen1211]

You don't have a 2/3s majority in the PA house. Can't override Wolf's Veto.

Ah, young grasshopper! That leaves the GOP a few votes short of a veto override. We will find allies in the Pennsylvania state legislature such as the Democratic friends of Philadelphia party boss Bob Brady.

I remember in 2011 when I warned liberals that we would enlist Clay/Cleaver allies to vote for Congressional redistricting and they did not want to believe me. And then Clay/cleaver allies delivered the votes to override Jay Nixon's veto of the redistricting. It was the first veto override of that governor.

Link

History has a way of repeating itself.

Two problems I see with this - perhaps you could enlighten me on either of these things. First the map, if redrawn, will probably be handed down from the Democrat dominated court rather than left to the State like in Florida. The court will pick a map/draw its own, then encourage the legislature it can change it in little ways if it doesn't like it.

Second, in 2010, the Republicans controlled everything. They had the power to promise concessions beyond the shape of their districts to the Philly machine. Now with wolf in the Governors mansion, Democrats can offer their own deals if it truly comes to this in regards to redistricting.

In the past, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court has recently invalidated the 2011 legislative redistricting due to an excess of county splits.

Link

So the 2012 elections were held under the 2001 maps which greatly favored the Democrat party due to their districts being grossly underpopulated. Perhaps the 2018 congressional elections will be held under the existing set of maps while the legislature redraws the maps. There is no precedent for what you seek.

Partisan gerrymandering itself was already upheld by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court and even the US Supreme Court in Vieth v Jubelier and the related state level cases.

Wolf is meaningless. The real issue is that Matt Cartwright will want to preserve a winnable district for himself, and Bob Brady will want to make sure his district is not overloaded with blacks so that the 1st district will continue to elect white liberals.

[Oryxslayer]

As a followup, I pretty sure Brady was for the maps because he wants a seat were he can survive a primary from any minority candidate - arguably why his district is mixed containing varying amounts of Whites/Blacks/Hispanics. Its not even hard for the courts/Team D to put forward a map that preserves this intent while creating compact districts and prevents the seat from spiraling into Delaware.

In fact, if the partisan courts expect this, their map will expect such a move and draw such a district ahead of time.

Cartwright can get a Bluer district simply from being compact Luzurne+Lakwanna+Monroe than what he has now.

[Oryxslayer]

And yes, there is no precedent for it - but the PA supreme court is 5D-2R. Do you expect them to be handed a tacket to a bluer map and simply say "nah, my partisan lean doesn't matter in this case."

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Now I am suddenly curious as to why Tom Wolf (D) appointed Sallie Mundy (R) to the court in 2016 after looking the PA supreme court up in Wikipedia.  Could have had a 6-1 D majority instead of 5-2.

[PragmaticPopulist]

If this gets through, it's huge. I could both Harrisburg and Erie-based districts that are tossups at worst for Democrats. There may even be a competitive Lancaster-based district.

[Virginiá]

Now I am suddenly curious as to why Tom Wolf (D) appointed Sallie Mundy (R) to the court in 2016 after looking the PA supreme court up in Wikipedia.  Could have had a 6-1 D majority instead of 5-2.

Because whoever he nominated had to be confirmed by the state Senate. That essentially forced him to appoint a Republican, and I doubt they would have caved given their already-huge deficit on the bench.

[muon2]

Back in 2013 I looked at PA using DRA as the muon rules were first being fleshed out. With help from Torie, traininthedistance, and jimrtex, I came up with a balanced neutral plan. I couldn't find my drf file from back then, so I reconstructed it with a couple of tweaks to reflect the current version of the rules.



Chester is the only macrochopped county smaller than a CD, and only three other small counties have regular chops. No city/borough/township is chopped except Philly, and no ward within Philly is chopped. Obama won 11 of the 18 CDs in 2008. DRA population deviations and current PVIs for the CDs are:

CD 1: (-42) D+24
CD 2: (-497) D+39; BVAP 52.6%
CD 3: (+180) R+8
CD 4: (-1808) R+17
CD 5: (+1704) R+15
CD 6: (-691) R+3
CD 7: (-616) D+8
CD 8: (+1566) R+1
CD 9: (+1078) R+20
CD 10: (-1173) R+17
CD 11: (-491) D+0
CD 12: (+1919) R+13
CD 13: (-636) D+17
CD 14: (+921) D+10
CD 15: (-2359) R+0
CD 16: (+963) R+9
CD 17: (-1047) R+9
CD 18: (+1006) R+3

This might give some sense as to what a new neutral map might produce.

Edit: fixed the PVIs by using old voting districts