New 2018 Senate control rating?

[MT Treasurer]

I voted Safe R in the previous polls, but now it looks as if it's Lean R at best for Rs. I could definitely see them holding all of their states and winning AL, NV and AZ (maybe also UT), though I think Republicans will pick up at least 1 Democratic-held seat (perhaps WV).

[heatcharger]

Still a heavy lift to carry every single competitive state. Likely R.

[Mr. Smith]

Lean R, unless Moore actually loses, something terrible happens to incumbent, or a we get a Kander-esque performance from Beto O'Rourke.

[jamestroll]

Likely R but very close to safe R.

Quit the over reactions to an off year election .

No way Mccaskill wins.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Likely R and that’s taking into account the potential for a Democrat victory in Alabama. Even with increased Democratic turnout in 2018 holding all their seats is still going to be tough. Factor a 50/50 race senate race in Arizona and likely needing to Texas and you have a small but not impossible chance of a Democratic Senate.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Still Likely R, just as it has been all year. Alabunga is Alabunga, McCaskill is very unlikely to win, Texas isn't happening, Dems don't have a candidate in UT. Only pathway I see is Bredesen jumps in in Tennessee, and even then McCaskill has to pull a rabbit out of a hat, or McCain has to resign/die.

[Orser67]

Likely R, though it's gotten a lot closer to Lean R lately. Still need to get lucky in at least one very red state.

[The Other Castro]

It is Likely R if Moore wins, but Toss-Up if Jones wins. Since I consider the Alabama race a tossup right now, I'll average them out and say Lean R overall.

[Gustaf]

Before it was high end of Likely R, now it's low end of Likely R.

The VA election suggests the wave is coming and the fact that the GOP is running a pedophile in Alabama means the Democrats have an outside chance at winning it. So D chances are up from like 5% to say 15% or something along those lines.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It is Likely R if Moore wins, but Toss-Up if Jones wins. Since I consider the Alabama race a tossup right now, I'll average them out and say Lean R overall.

[IceSpear]

Still Safe R. Dem ceiling is 51-49 R.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Best chance is a 50/50 split and Dems flip one of Collins or Murkowski.

This is an impossible scenario, so Safe R.

[cvparty]

likely R (but a lot closer to safe than lean). Democrats' path to 51 is to either
1) hold all their seats, and flip any 3 of NV + AZ + TX + AL, or
2) hold all but one of their seats (prob MO), and flip NV + AZ + TX + AL

(color = party of senator, lighter colors = somewhat vulnerable, lightest = v vulnerable)

[UncleSam]

Likely R. Lean R if Moore loses, Safe R if he wins. I think him winning is 50/50 right now so we will see.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Lean R is the median in my current predictions.  If Doug Jones wins, it moves to Lean D.  If Roy Moore wins, it moves to Likely R.  Currently, Alabama is Lean R (and the only Lean R).



Also, whoever voted toss up is a lame coward.

[Pyro]

It is unlikely that the Democrats have any chance of taking the Senate in 2018 barring some sort of gigantic wave.

[Skill and Chance]

I think at least one of the Romney-Trump Dems will fall regardless of the national environment (probably McCaskill), but the possibilities of Collins switching or Cruz going down in the primary or generall are significantly higher now.

[Figueira]

Likely R. Even if Jones wins, it's hard to see Democrats holding every single 2018 seat.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I could only see it happening if Congress doesn't pass tax reform. 

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I think this needs to be bumped.

Strong Likely R --> Lean R, bordering on Tilt R

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lean R > Tossup.

[Sestak]

Well...

NV stays Likely D
AZ: Tossup -> Lean D
MO: Lean R -> Tossup
IN: Lean R -> Tossup
WV: Tossup -> Lean D
ND, MT Likely D.

I say the senate leans D, or tossup.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Likely R --> Lean R

[smoltchanov]

Likely R --> Lean R

The same.

[Tx_Longhorn]

Tossup