AL-DDHQ/Opinion Savvy: TIED (Post-Sexual Allegations), Jones +3 w/ Strange WI

[heatcharger]

Wow, the overconfidence from Republicans. You'd think they'd learn from 2012 and 2017...

[Cashew]

Akin was tied in the first poll after he endorsed rape, too. Not saying Moore loses but that's the precedent.

I'm not sure how good this comparison would be (especially since its state vs federal), but if Edwards can win by over 10 points in Louisiana under a somewhat unpopular Democratic president, Jones could pull off a slim win against a pedophile in a year where the Democratic base is fired up and the GOP brand is suffering.

Situation is kinda different regarding the democratic candidate. Edward's was a unknown guy who said he disliked Abortion. Doug Jones prosecuted the KKK.  Im sure lots of Alabama voters would dislike Doug just because of that.

Plus the black percentage of the population in Louisiana is 32% and in Alabama is 26%(surprisingly) Not impossible for Doug to win but he has to hope a lot of republicans either vote for him or stay home.

We also need to consider that Louisiana whites are more elastic than the rest of the deep south, and Louisiana republicans are pretty moderate for the region as well.

Yeah, Louisiana is not as deplorable as Alabama.

There is no comparison, can you imagine a republican legislature anywhere else in the country, let alone the south voting for a clean Medicaid expansion of their own volition? Buffoons like Jindal are an aberration for the state, not the norm.

[Holmes]

Akin was tied in the first poll after he endorsed rape, too. Not saying Moore loses but that's the precedent.

I'm not sure how good this comparison would be (especially since its state vs federal), but if Edwards can win by over 10 points in Louisiana under a somewhat unpopular Democratic president, Jones could pull off a slim win against a pedophile in a year where the Democratic base is fired up and the GOP brand is suffering.

Situation is kinda different regarding the democratic candidate. Edward's was a unknown guy who said he disliked Abortion. Doug Jones prosecuted the KKK.  Im sure lots of Alabama voters would dislike Doug just because of that.

Plus the black percentage of the population in Louisiana is 32% and in Alabama is 26%(surprisingly) Not impossible for Doug to win but he has to hope a lot of republicans either vote for him or stay home.

We also need to consider that Louisiana whites are more elastic than the rest of the Deep South

More than Georgia whites? Even South Carolina whites?

[Cashew]

Akin was tied in the first poll after he endorsed rape, too. Not saying Moore loses but that's the precedent.

I'm not sure how good this comparison would be (especially since its state vs federal), but if Edwards can win by over 10 points in Louisiana under a somewhat unpopular Democratic president, Jones could pull off a slim win against a pedophile in a year where the Democratic base is fired up and the GOP brand is suffering.

Situation is kinda different regarding the democratic candidate. Edward's was a unknown guy who said he disliked Abortion. Doug Jones prosecuted the KKK.  Im sure lots of Alabama voters would dislike Doug just because of that.

Plus the black percentage of the population in Louisiana is 32% and in Alabama is 26%(surprisingly) Not impossible for Doug to win but he has to hope a lot of republicans either vote for him or stay home.

We also need to consider that Louisiana whites are more elastic than the rest of the Deep South

More than Georgia whites? Even South Carolina whites?

That's a higher floor, the racial polarization might be stronger but the ideological polarization is far less than the surrounding states.

[Xing]

Yeah, it would be nice to think that Jones can win, but Moore has an (R) next to his name, you see...

[Tartarus Sauce]

Yeah, if Jones can't even lead now at the height of the backlash he's definitely going to lose. I will now accept my accolades.

The day after a scandal breaks is almost never the peak.