AL-DDHQ/Opinion Savvy: TIED (Post-Sexual Allegations), Jones +3 w/ Strange WI

[publicunofficial]

What it takes to elect a Republican Senator in Massachusetts: The Democratic candidate being a lazy milquetoast who didn't feel like campaigning during a poor political climate for the Democrats.

What it takes to elect a Democratic Senator in Alabama: The Republican candidate being a literal pedophile. N/A

And then people say I'm wrong when I say that blue states are more open minded and that many red states would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D).

When I think "States that don't have a racism problem" Massachusetts is DEFINITELY #1.

[IceSpear]

Listen you aren't totally wrong but you're mind state is toxic and miserable to listen to.

The truth often hurts.

[IceSpear]

What it takes to elect a Republican Senator in Massachusetts: The Democratic candidate being a lazy milquetoast who didn't feel like campaigning during a poor political climate for the Democrats.

What it takes to elect a Democratic Senator in Alabama: The Republican candidate being a literal pedophile. N/A

And then people say I'm wrong when I say that blue states are more open minded and that many red states would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D).

When I think "States that don't have a racism problem" Massachusetts is DEFINITELY #1.

Would Massachusetts elect a pedophile because they had a (D) next to their name?

[Hydera]

Roy Moore - 46%
Doug Jones - 46%
Other - 4%
Undecided - 4%

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https://s3.amazonaws.com/ddhqpolls/AL+Sen+11.9.17.pdf

Including Luther Strange as a Write-In candidate:

Doug Jones - 44%
Roy Moore - 41%
Luther Strange - 12%
Other - 1%
Undecided - 2%

"Have you read, seen, or heard any news stories in the past 24 hours regarding Senate candidate
Roy Moore, which allege that Moore engaged in a sexual encounter with a 14-year-old girl in
1979, when he was 32 years old?"

Yes - 82%
No - 9%
Unsure - 8%

"Given the current allegations made against Senate candidate Roy Moore, do you believe that he should withdraw himself as a candidate in the Senate election?"

Yes - 35%
No - 54%
Unsure - 11%

To that 2% of doug jones voters who will vote for luther stranger or other.


could u please not...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

We need to try in this race now.

[krazen1211]

Would Massachusetts elect a pedophile because they had a (D) next to their name?

Someone else forgot Ted Kennedy.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

What it takes to elect a Republican Senator in Massachusetts: The Democratic candidate being a lazy milquetoast who didn't feel like campaigning during a poor political climate for the Democrats.

What it takes to elect a Democratic Senator in Alabama: The Republican candidate being a literal pedophile. N/A

And then people say I'm wrong when I say that blue states are more open minded and that many red states would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D).

Sad to hear that the election is over and Roy Moore already won.

Oh wait, there's a whole month? Nah, let's just keep spouting BS about how bad Alabama is before they have a chance to redeem themselves.

[MAINEiac4434]

Would Massachusetts elect a pedophile because they had a (D) next to their name?

Someone else forgot Ted Kennedy.

Teddy's a murderer, not a pedophile, get it right.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Petition to allow AL to secede.

[IceSpear]

Petition to allow AL to succeed.

If they seceded OR succeeded, Roy Moore probably wouldn't be a Senator soon.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

From what I am hearing, the JMC poll is gonna look good for Jones. This race is a tossup now.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

From what I am hearing, the JMC poll is gonna look good for Jones. This race is a tossup now.

Who are you hearing this from, exactly?

[The Other Castro]

From what I am hearing, the JMC poll is gonna look good for Jones. This race is a tossup now.

Who are you hearing this from, exactly?

Pollster from JMC said:

John Couvillon‏ @WinWithJMC
ALABAMA SENATE POLL: JMC still plans to publish no later than Sunday night. He can tease one result now, even from raw data: the Democratic "wave" Tuesday night was no fluke (generic partisan ballot test was one of the poll questions).  #ALSEN

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/928955931588808704

[Sir Mohamed]

Freedom poll! But way to soon to change the rating. Lean R at best, more closely to likely R. We have to see more polls over the next few weeks and take a look how this thing plays out. Often such scandals cool down in public and in the end, voters just care for the (R) on the ballot paper.

The obstacle for Dems is, that AL is an not an elastic state (such as MA or MD for example).

[Rookie Yinzer]

These people are probably lying to throw off pollster or because of social desirability.

[Doimper]

Freedom poll! But way to soon to change the rating. Lean R at best, more closely to likely R. We have to see more polls over the next few weeks and take a look how this thing plays out. Often such scandals cool down in public and in the end, voters just care for the (R) on the ballot paper.

The obstacle for Dems is, that AL is an not an elastic state (such as MA or MD for example).

MD isn't an elastic state. Hogan got a perfect storm (incompetent challenger and incumbent, favorable national environment, and he himself was a competent candidate)

[IceSpear]

Freedom poll! But way to soon to change the rating. Lean R at best, more closely to likely R. We have to see more polls over the next few weeks and take a look how this thing plays out. Often such scandals cool down in public and in the end, voters just care for the (R) on the ballot paper.

The obstacle for Dems is, that AL is an not an elastic state (such as MA or MD for example).

MD isn't an elastic state. Hogan got a perfect storm (incompetent challenger and incumbent, favorable national environment, and he himself was a competent candidate)

Can it really be a perfect storm if his opponent wasn't a pedophile?

[KingSweden]

What it takes to elect a Republican Senator in Massachusetts: The Democratic candidate being a lazy milquetoast who didn't feel like campaigning during a poor political climate for the Democrats.

What it takes to elect a Democratic Senator in Alabama: The Republican candidate being a literal pedophile. N/A

And then people say I'm wrong when I say that blue states are more open minded and that many red states would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D).

When I think "States that don't have a racism problem" Massachusetts is DEFINITELY #1.

Whadaya mean we gattah bus these dahkies into Southie yah fahkin queeah?

[Sir Mohamed]

Freedom poll! But way to soon to change the rating. Lean R at best, more closely to likely R. We have to see more polls over the next few weeks and take a look how this thing plays out. Often such scandals cool down in public and in the end, voters just care for the (R) on the ballot paper.

The obstacle for Dems is, that AL is an not an elastic state (such as MA or MD for example).

MD isn't an elastic state. Hogan got a perfect storm (incompetent challenger and incumbent, favorable national environment, and he himself was a competent candidate)

But the same formula you laid out doesn't work in AL. That would have Jones winning even before allegations.

[Brittain33]

Akin was tied in the first poll after he endorsed rape, too. Not saying Moore loses but that's the precedent.

[Virginiá]

Akin was tied in the first poll after he endorsed rape, too. Not saying Moore loses but that's the precedent.

I'm not sure how good this comparison would be (especially since its state vs federal), but if Edwards can win by over 10 points in Louisiana under a somewhat unpopular Democratic president, Jones could pull off a slim win against a pedophile in a year where the Democratic base is fired up and the GOP brand is suffering.

[Hydera]

Akin was tied in the first poll after he endorsed rape, too. Not saying Moore loses but that's the precedent.

I'm not sure how good this comparison would be (especially since its state vs federal), but if Edwards can win by over 10 points in Louisiana under a somewhat unpopular Democratic president, Jones could pull off a slim win against a pedophile in a year where the Democratic base is fired up and the GOP brand is suffering.

Situation is kinda different regarding the democratic candidate. Edward's was a unknown guy who said he disliked Abortion. Doug Jones prosecuted the KKK.  Im sure lots of Alabama voters would dislike Doug just because of that.

Plus the black percentage of the population in Louisiana is 32% and in Alabama is 26%(surprisingly) Not impossible for Doug to win but he has to hope a lot of republicans either vote for him or stay home.

[Pericles]

This is not actually the peak of the scandal, just the beginning and the firestorm is still ongoing. Hopefully further polls in the coming week will show Jones-mentum.

[Cashew]

Akin was tied in the first poll after he endorsed rape, too. Not saying Moore loses but that's the precedent.

I'm not sure how good this comparison would be (especially since its state vs federal), but if Edwards can win by over 10 points in Louisiana under a somewhat unpopular Democratic president, Jones could pull off a slim win against a pedophile in a year where the Democratic base is fired up and the GOP brand is suffering.

Situation is kinda different regarding the democratic candidate. Edward's was a unknown guy who said he disliked Abortion. Doug Jones prosecuted the KKK.  Im sure lots of Alabama voters would dislike Doug just because of that.

Plus the black percentage of the population in Louisiana is 32% and in Alabama is 26%(surprisingly) Not impossible for Doug to win but he has to hope a lot of republicans either vote for him or stay home.

We also need to consider that Louisiana whites are more elastic than the rest of the deep south, and Louisiana republicans are pretty moderate for the region as well.

[IceSpear]

Akin was tied in the first poll after he endorsed rape, too. Not saying Moore loses but that's the precedent.

I'm not sure how good this comparison would be (especially since its state vs federal), but if Edwards can win by over 10 points in Louisiana under a somewhat unpopular Democratic president, Jones could pull off a slim win against a pedophile in a year where the Democratic base is fired up and the GOP brand is suffering.

Situation is kinda different regarding the democratic candidate. Edward's was a unknown guy who said he disliked Abortion. Doug Jones prosecuted the KKK.  Im sure lots of Alabama voters would dislike Doug just because of that.

Plus the black percentage of the population in Louisiana is 32% and in Alabama is 26%(surprisingly) Not impossible for Doug to win but he has to hope a lot of republicans either vote for him or stay home.

We also need to consider that Louisiana whites are more elastic than the rest of the deep south, and Louisiana republicans are pretty moderate for the region as well.

Yeah, Louisiana is not as deplorable as Alabama.