Maricopa County Arizona Pres Results by Municipality 2012>2016
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  Maricopa County Arizona Pres Results by Municipality 2012>2016
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Author Topic: Maricopa County Arizona Pres Results by Municipality 2012>2016  (Read 1027 times)
NOVA Green
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« on: November 10, 2017, 09:25:05 PM »

Ok--- since I've been spending much of my free time in the past week or so looking at Precinct level results from Maricopa County in the '12 and '16 Pres GE, and didn't see any other thread dedicated to the topic decided to start a new thread to present and discuss my findings, as well as potential implications going forward into 2020 in arguably one of the most likely states to flip Democrat at the Presidential Level, that like Georgia hasn't voted Democrat for quite a few decades....

Maricopa County is particularly interesting, since such a large and diverse County accounts for about 60% of the total Arizona Vote share (2016), roughly a 0.5% of the total statewide vote from (2012)...

In many ways Maricopa is not only a microcosm of Arizona as a whole, but additionally slivers of major voting populations that exist in many other regions and states throughout our Great Nation...

A key seminal work "Our Patchwork Nation", published in 2010 attempted to break down the Political tapestry of the US not focused so much on "Red States/ Blue States" nor "Red States/Red Counties", but rather using social-demographic analysis to carve out the various places in our country using a variety of Sociological methods....

https://www.csmonitor.com/Books/Book-Reviews/2010/1027/Our-Patchwork-Nation

Maricopa County, which alone is larger than many other states in the United States, contains within itself a wide range of the twelve communities described in this work, from the "Boom Towns" (Exurban), "Monied Burbs", "Immigrant Nation", "Campus & Careers", and "Empty Nesters" not to mention perhaps some slivers of "Industrial Metros, Service Workers, Military Bastions and Mormon Outposts....

There are many questions regarding Maricopa County that have been raised on this Forum, but I have to see any detailed discussion of election results by Cities/Communities within what is the County which will likely determine the Statewide winner of Presidential, US Senate, and Gubernatorial Elections for decades in the future.

So Let's look at the total vote share by City in 2012 and 2016 to see where the electoral distribution is in Maricopa, and what changes there may have been in what is a fast growing County...





So, interestingly enough we don't see a significant shift in the distribution of the electorate between cities in what is an overwhelmingly urban/suburban/exurban County....

Sure the vote share in Exurban "Boom Towns" like Gilbert and Buckeye jumped up a few notches, as well as smaller increases in places like Peoria, Goodyear, and Surprise.... however the Phoenix vote share remained constant between '12 and '16.

We actually see the biggest drops as a % of the County electorate in the two most reliably Republican classic suburbs in the City Mesa and Scottsdale, that combined saw a 0.7% decrease of the Maricopa County Vote Share



OK---- sounds all fine and dandy, but where were the swings that happened in Maricopa that caused it go from roughly +10-11% R in '08/'12 to only +4% R in 2016 (48-45 R)?

Obviously we need to look at the various communities that are part of this massive County with 3.9k residents to see how they voted in '12 and '16 in terms of overall vote margins by City...



To put it in perspective, we need to look at the '12/'16 results by percentage margins by Part and City, and then look at the swings by place....



So, Phoenix that represents 33% of the Maricopa County electorate obviously stands out....

It accounted for 46% of the total Democratic vote gain between '12 and '16 in Maricopa.

Scottsdale and Chandler obviously stand out, which accounted for an additional 26k net vote margin gain for HRC....

In terms of the fast growing exurbs, Gilbert is really the only place that stands out for the Dems, and Surprise and Buckeye even added net 'Pub total vote gains.

Still, the Exurbs of Phoenix don't appear to represent the real story of what's going on in Maricopca.

There are various theories that have been floating around on Atlas and elsewhere regarding items such as the "Latino Surge", "College Educated Upper Income Voters", etc....

Honestly, the numbers probably are a mixture of the two theories posited, and since the '08/'12 numbers are roughly similar, it perhaps comparing the '12/'16 numbers in greater detail by City/Precinct might provide better insights into the question of whether Maricopa '16 results were an anomaly or part of a broader trend, which obviously should be much more worrying for Republican candidates running in Arizona....

So next, I'll try to pull more detailed precinct results by municipality and overlapped with US Census data to see if this was a temporary phenomenon or part of a greater shift towards the Democratic Party among the extremely diverse electorate of Maricopa County....



So obviously, although the total vote increases in Phoenix stand out, there were actually much larger swings in Scottsdale, Chandler, and Gilbert, which is largely responsible for Chandler flipping Dem....


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